Grabsky about the likely attack of Belarus/Collage of Channel 24
Ukraine is discussing the possibility of Lukashenka leaving the war. One of the tasks that the route allegedly sets for Belarus is to cut off Ukraine from its Western partners and pass along the border with Poland.
Military expert Sergei Grabsky told Channel 24 that the Belarusian army cannot do this on its own. Since she has never fought and has no physical experience.
“To say that the Belarusian army alone can be capable of conducting any operation? No, this is impossible. You must understand that the Belarusian army can be used together with units of the Russian army. Then we can talk about serious advances into our territory,” the expert said.
Why it will be difficult for Belarusians to attack
According to Grabsky, it is important that a probable attack on Belarus will not be sudden. Ukraine is ready for such a development of events. In addition, there is a natural factor.
“If you look at the geography of that location, you will understand that it is very difficult to attack there. It is impossible to maneuver. You can only pass along the highway or along the railway”, – noted the expert.
He said that if we talk about the direction of Zabolotye – Kovel from Brest or Luninets – Sarny towards Rovno, then it is very difficult to go there. Grabsky assured that the Belarusians could lose a lot of people, weapons and military equipment there.
Everything is subordinate to Russia
Grabsky said that Lukashenka perfectly understands the consequences. That is why Ukraine has been expecting an invasion from Belarus for the fourth month already. For a self-proclaimed president, there is a danger that his armed resources will be diverted from protecting his own face and estates. This could turn into a catastrophe for Lukashenko and unrest in the country.
Therefore, he will do everything possible to try to avoid such a situation. However, it should be understood that he is not the final decision maker. the Belarusian general staff is completely subordinate to the Russian one. In my opinion, under certain conditions, the path will not even ask Lukashenka's permission for his troops to go into battle, Grabsky added.
