Putin warned Scholz and NATO that he was preparing a war against them: a conversation with an officer of the Ukrainian Armed Forces

A conversation between German officers was leaked online, discussing the possibility of transferring TAURUS missiles to Ukraine and striking them at the Crimean Bridge. This story could be a warning to NATO countries and Europe.

In addition, Russia is exerting serious propaganda pressure on Germany. Ukrainian Armed Forces fighter and political scientist Taras Berezovets spoke about this in a conversation with Channel 24, noting that this is a serious warning from the West that Russia is preparing a war against them.< /p>

About the reasons for personnel changes in the Armed Forces of Ukraine

Commander-in-Chief Alexander Syrsky received carte blanche from the president for any personnel changes. He himself recently stated that they should be done, because after a trip to the front he saw that some commanders had certain miscalculations in handling the situation. Accordingly, this affected the current situation, and, in particular, our defense. How changing brigade commanders can affect the situation on the battlefield? In the overall military vertical, what role does the brigade commander play and what place does he have?< /p>

Here I must immediately note that replacing commanders of military formations, primarily battalions, brigades, regiments and other formations, is the exclusive competence of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. He is capable and authorized to make appropriate personnel and decisions. His predecessor did this, and this is what the current Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is doing, taking into account the operational situation and the commanders’ reactions to it.

We started this war with the Armed Forces, which numbered about 250 thousand personnel. Today, the total number of military personnel in the Ukrainian Defense Forces reaches 1 million. This is together with everyone, together with the border service, together with the Special Operations Forces, territorial defense and other formations.

But it is clear that no Ukrainian military educational institutions have such a number of commanders could have been prepared in due time. It’s good if a person has, at best, a basic education, graduated from a military department, but most of these officers did not have a single day of service experience in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Therefore, now, for the positions of battalion commanders and brigade commanders, the emphasis is primarily on career officers.

However, I must note that among the battalion commanders, not to mention company commanders, and even brigade commanders, there are already quite a few officers who either had relatively limited service experience, served in military service, or completed this service quite a long time ago.

First of all, the emphasis is on intelligence, on the ability to make decisions. We have a lot of young brigade commanders, with the rank of not only colonels, but also brigadier generals, who achieve results that have been awarded many state awards. Among them are Heroes of Ukraine. Quite a few of these military officers, together with Commander-in-Chief Alexander Syrsky, have now come to command the General Staff and various branches of the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces.

Regarding the brigade commander, he does not plan operations, but only participates in the development at the level of the OSGV, at the level of the OTGV, which, within the limits of limited competence, can develop these operations together with the General Staff of Ukraine. All military operations are still planned by the General Staff.

Brigade commanders have very limited operational space. Their task, first of all, is to carry out the relevant combat orders, which are formed by the General Staff and descend through the OTGV, OSGV.

Given the operational situation, unlike our enemy, our commanders have the right to make independent decisions. Relatively speaking, you can carry out combat orders from “A to Z”, or you can understand that the operational situation has changed, and you need to make independent decisions in order to avoid losses among personnel and equipment of your units.

Alexander Syrsky/Armed Forces of Ukraine

That is, first of all, the Commander-in-Chief says that we must value the lives of our personnel. Where commanders cannot make decisions with the necessary speed, or these decisions do not correspond to the operational situation, and such a situation develops over a certain period, everyone makes mistakes. You can make a mistake once or twice, but if such mistakes are systemic in nature, this requires personnel changes, in particular at the level of brigade commanders,

Therefore, we have enough trained officers at the level of battalion commanders and other military formations who are promoted to the rank of brigade commanders. I know quite a few such officers who started the war in 2022 in various positions and have now risen to the level of brigade commanders or even higher. This is an example when war brings to the fore proactive, courageous commanders who are capable of making independent decisions, capable of being responsible and, most importantly, taking this responsibility for themselves.

There is a difference in the Armed Forces of Ukraine between the commander and the officer is that the commander says: “Do as I do.” And if this person does not have the appropriate officer and personal qualities, then he simply says: “Do that and I’ll watch.” That is, there is a difference.

About the situation around Avdiivka

Representative of the Tauride direction Dmitry Likhovy said that the situation in the Avdeevsky direction is somewhat stabilizing. According to him, the Russians have reduced the intensity of their assaults and airstrikes, and this may be due to the fact that we have begun to shoot down Russian fighters so actively. Do you know what is happening in the Avdiivka direction now, and can we say that the occupiers are actually a little exhausted, or is this still a temporary lull? Perhaps they will now carry out a rotation?

Such assessments can only be given by speakers of those departments that are located precisely in this direction. Our unit is not located there, so I am not authorized to give appropriate assessments regarding the specific situation in Avdiivka.

The only thing we see is the enemy’s attempts to repeatedly break through and go beyond the city, which was abandoned by Ukrainian Armed Forces units in February. The enemy is trying to expand this bridgehead, as they say, on the “shoulders” of our units. More precisely, he tried to go beyond the boundaries of this settlement, but was localized in the Avdeevka area.

According to official reports from the General Staff, we see that fierce battles are now taking place. This is not the only theater of military operations at the front where such a situation is currently occurring. But the Avdiivka direction is obviously one of the most difficult.

The occupiers are improving the air bombs

We have already repeatedly discussed that the occupiers use guided aerial bombs. They made them “wings” so that they could fly further. But Oleg Sinegubov said that in Kupyansk they struck for the first time with KABs with cluster charges. That is, they can fill them with cassette parts, which can then cause even greater destruction?

The enemy has been using cluster munitions for a long time. Moreover, violating international rules of war, he uses them against the civilian population. We have repeatedly seen that they used this on the right bank of the Dnieper in the Kherson region. Populated areas of the Donetsk, Kharkov regions, and Zaporozhye regions were repeatedly shelled.

In addition, the enemy is actively using thermobaric charges of the “Solntsepek” class and similar ones, which are prohibited against the civilian population.

Regarding their “new products” and improvements. Thus, they are actively working to increase their own arsenal, complicate it, and improve it. The bulk of these KABs fall not on military targets, but on infrastructure and civilian facilities. In particular, settlements in the Kherson and Kharkov regions are being subjected to massive attacks.

Why the Russians are heading to Chasiv Yar

Heavy fighting is taking place in the Bakhmut direction. In particular, the enemy continues offensive operations in Bogdanovka and Ivanovsky. They say that the situation is not really going well for us, but it is obvious that the Russians are preparing to take over Chasov Yar. Can you explain the general strategic importance of this settlement and what it will give them if they can really advance in this direction?

We don't have settlements that don't matter. As for Chasovoy Yar, this is a settlement that directly borders the occupied Bakhmut. Further behind it is an urban conglomeration of Konstantinovka, Druzhkovka, Slavyansk and Kramatorsk.

Having captured Chasov Yar, the enemy will undoubtedly try to further develop their offensive actions. The ultimate goal of this offensive is the capture of Slavyansk. And then again the exit in the direction of Izyum, which was already occupied during a large-scale invasion at the beginning of winter – spring 2022.

What is happening near the Temporary Yara: look on the map

Fierce fighting has been going on there since the middle of last year. These enemy efforts to take control of Hourly Yar were unsuccessful. There are motivated, organized, trained armed units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Therefore, for the enemy, the situation there is not going well for them.

All their attempts to go beyond the Bakhmut military conglomeration were mostly unsuccessful. Let me remind you that they took possession of the ruins of Bakhmut in May 2023. It’s already the spring of 2024, but the enemy has not made any serious progress in this direction.

The DPRK could have stopped giving weapons to Russia: what is the reason

South Korean media wrote that supposedly the DPRK could have suspended the supply of ammunition to Russia because, as if in recent weeks, ships that had previously been associated with the transportation of weapons had not been seen in North Korean ports. What could happen is that North Korea does not send ammunition? Let's say that they do not send, they do not have enough capacity for this, or in fact they saw what targets Russia chooses for these shells and therefore decided, for example, not to cooperate more?

I don’t know the reason why North Korea is now unable to deliver cargo to Russia. Indeed, this situation has been observed since the beginning of February. Western publications wrote about this and the South Korean Ministry of Defense reported about it.

In any case, these problems may be purely technical in nature. They may have problems with overload. The four Russian ships that were used for transportation also needed some repairs.

It appears that at least two of the ships that Russia used to transport these cargoes are now being repaired at docks in the Russian Far East. That is, there may be a purely technical hitch.

According to estimates by the US Department of Defense, North Korea could deliver about three million 152-caliber shells to Russia. This information undoubtedly requires clarification, but the fact is that Russian troops use North Korean-made shells at the front, as well as ballistic missiles.

Putin directly warned that he is preparing a war against NATO

Margarita Simonyan published films of German officers who allegedly discussed the transfer of TAURUS missiles to Ukraine and, possibly, their strikes on the Crimean Bridge. Conspiracy theories began to appear around this situation. They say that Olaf Scholz or someone from his team deliberately handed over these films to Russia to show why these missiles should not be transferred to Ukraine. And someone says that, on the contrary, these films can now play into our hands and Germany will hand them over. What did you see in this situation? How did it even happen that German officers could be wiretapped by Russia?

< p>Unfortunately, security problems in the German army and intelligence services did not arise today. This is a long-term problem, which is also reported in the German press, including the fact that Western intelligence agencies, primarily the CIA, MI5, have a serious level of mistrust towards their German colleagues. Because of this, they prefer not to share secrets with them, realizing that sooner or later they may become the property of Russian spies.

This situation only once again proved that Bundeswehr officers violate security protocols by conducting such confidential conversations over unsecured lines. As is known, the reason for the leak was that one of the participants in this conversation, a Bundeswehr officer, was in Singapore and spoke on an unsecured line. Perhaps he was recorded by Russian intelligence services in his own hotel room.

Vladimir Putin did not hide his pleasure from this fact. He didn’t even try to particularly hide how this information was obtained. Russian intelligence services released this information through propagandist Margarita Simonyan, thereby emphasizing their confidence.

Worst of all, this tape may not be the last that Russian spies possess, nor will it be the last that will eventually be made public. The main goal, as reported by the German publication Der Spiegel, is to discredit the federal government and Chancellor Olaf Scholz. This is an attempt at a hybrid attack against the entire German political elite, which is committed to helping Ukraine.

Olaf Scholz actually has two options< /strong>: or, relatively speaking, stop this assistance altogether and show your weakness, vulnerability to Russian hybrid attacks; or vice versa – it (Russia's hybrid attack – Channel 24) can force him to show his own leadership qualities and, on the contrary, go against this blackmail, show that he is not afraid of the Russians trying to discredit him, and demonstrate that he is the real leader of the largest European country and the largest European economic power – Germany.

< strong>The editor-in-chief of Bild writes that Scholz is starting his election campaign and seems to be positioning himself as “Chancellor of Peace,” choosing the path of former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder. And this seems to harm Ukraine and Europe. Do you see that he really chooses the position of “Chancellor of the World” and will this add points to him?

< p dir="ltr">The popularity of the current coalition, which includes his home party of the Social Democrats, is now rapidly declining. We see an increase in the ratings of primarily pro-Putin parties such as ARD. And also growing support for the actively developing anti-emigrant movement.

At the same time, many Germans are also not satisfied with the history of the popularity of far-right and left-wing movements. We saw mass protests, rallies, and actions held by Germans throughout the country, speaking out against the radicalization of their country, which, after losing the Second World War, gravitated toward tolerance, toward greater loyalty to the European course and values. Therefore, these are two different trends.

As for Scholz, which path he will choose, I don’t know, to be honest. I don’t think that if he tries to play “dove of peace” now and abruptly refuses help to Ukraine, that this will actually help him. Because the roots of his problem lie elsewhere.

And vice versa, now succumbing to this blackmail, he will look even weaker, and the Germans definitely will not like this. This will definitely not add to his popularity. For the average German, even those who have a positive and neutral attitude towards him, the very fact is that if, behind this blackmail, Olaf Scholz begins to act as the Kremlin wants, this will put him in a very uncomfortable position. This does not exclude the possibility that he will go this route.

But it seems to me that this situation will be a lose-lose for him in any case, because by showing his weaknesses and following the Kremlin’s lead, he will not only gain nothing, but will lose even more.

What lies behind Macron’s statement about the possibility of sending troops into Ukraine

Especially against the backdrop of Emanuel Macron’s statements about the possibility of sending troops to Ukraine. Because some experts say that, on the contrary, they compete with each other and are now competing for the title of European leader. Which of them will be stronger?

I would say that the unexpected toughness shown by French President Macron, who is finishing his second term and will not run again, shows that he sees opportunity now.

When the United States now demonstrates the weakness and inconsistency of its position – it promised to support Ukraine as long as necessary, but all this does not happen, opportunities arise for new leaders, especially in Europe.

Macron very clearly saw an articulated initiative on the part of NATO countries, primarily the Scandinavian countries – Denmark, Sweden, Finland, and the Baltic countries. You can also add here the Netherlands, Belgium and the British government, which have expressed a more decisive position regarding both support for Ukraine and countering the Russian threat.

And Macron, undoubtedly, would like this movement – the military bloc in NATO – to be led by France as a country that has the largest armed forces, a huge military budget and which, compared to Germany, looks more like a leader.

Emmanuel Macron/Getty Images

Therefore, for Macron it was not impromptu, it is 100%. The support of his statements by the government of Gabriel Attal indicates that the French have agreed on this position, this is a conscious decision for them and they have now decided to take advantage of the moment when the United States has sagged – France is seizing this leadership. Therefore, statements about the introduction of troops into Ukraine were not made out of nowhere.

I think that these contingents will still appear, just not to participate in direct combat operations, but to train the Ukrainian military. And French special forces may actually appear in Ukraine before the end of this year. At least such plans have already been made public – that they are now developing plans to move them. And this example will be followed by other resolute countries that are members of NATO.

Do the West really believe in Putin's nuclear threats

But what about those same threats from the Kremlin? I mean, does the Kremlin still understand who it will be dealing with? For example, they stated that they would fire their missiles at foreign military personnel in Ukraine or, perhaps, even will send a nuclear strike somewhere in Paris. They really won't do this, but they just threaten?

They they threaten, but these threats have not yet been followed up by anything. We see that after a certain pause Putin again resorted to nuclear blackmail, but NATO’s reaction indicates that they did not believe in this blackmail, it’s banal.

That is, as in the fable, when a boy shouts “wolves, wolves” for a long time, at a certain moment no one comes running to these cries. Therefore, Putin abused the right of this blackmail too much, and these threats now, I will say, the level of trust is the lowest since the beginning of this war.

In addition, everyone understands perfectly well that if we are not talking about direct participation in the war against Russian units, but exclusively about the protection of civilian and military infrastructure, about performing certain tasks, training in particular, this is not a reason to declare war, especially since use of nuclear weapons.

This is a threat that, as retired United States Army General Ben Hodges has voiced, can be exploited just one time. Putin can be as crazy as he wants, as much as he wants, I will say, mentally ill, but he still understands that if this threat is realized, this is a one-time story that will definitely play against him in the future.

Therefore, they do not believe in these threats. I am sure that these threats voiced by Putin will not stop the decision to introduce a limited military contingent into Ukraine, not from all countries, but from individual NATO members.

Why is Medvedev disgraced to the whole world with his statements

Dmitry Medvedev said that the territories on both banks of the Dnieper are supposedly an integral part of Russia’s historical strategic borders. By the way, there is a theory that Medvedev is doing this deliberately in order to neutralize himself as a definite competitor to Putin. Do you believe in this? And how do you analyze why he even comes out and makes such meaningless statements?

These statements are definitely not subject to serious analysis and, in principle, the European Union recently responded to the Russian alcoholic Medvedev that this is an issue that should be resolved by psychiatrists.

He attracts attention to himself first of all. Sends a signal to Putin that he is so ridiculous and pathetic that he should not be feared, that he will never challenge Putin's power. That is, he simply cares about his safety and his life.

But I do not exclude the possibility that all these public deviations and fantasies that he makes public are the result of the degradation of his personality under the influence of alcohol. He actually sometimes looks like a mentally ill person, unhealthy to say the least. We know that people who abuse alcohol have periods when they can voice threats and aggression under the influence of the fact that they are limited in the use of alcoholic substances.

Therefore, I would say that in his personality there are definitely elements of masochism, such self-destruction. That is, he deliberately exposes himself as such a clown, deliberately makes such statements. On the one hand, to attract attention to yourself like a hysterical child. This is also evidence of the immaturity, adolescence of his inner behavior, as all teenagers try to attract attention.

On the other hand, it is self-destructive and masochistic motive. He makes these statements to enjoy the crushing criticism addressed to him. We discuss him, he is humiliated, and for masochists it is the greatest form of pleasure when they say about him that “he is an alcoholic, he is mediocrity.” You see, he's just crazy.

Dmitry Medvedev/Getty Images

And I think that he gets great pleasure this way. And this is indeed, without irony here, a research question for psychiatrists that should be seriously investigated. It would be if he had even the slightest influence on decision-making in Russia. But he won’t press the nuclear button, unless he steals it from Putin while he’s sleeping.

Although mentally ill people are indeed dangerous, you cannot fully predict their behavior. But in all other respects, he is an absolutely innocent alcoholic who simply has the opportunity, unlike other alcoholics who quietly “bruise themselves” in the kitchen, to convey his fantasies to the whole world.

But look, again there is no serious reaction to his words. If our Western partners treat him like a clown, then that’s what he is.

Sometimes Medvedev does not follow the line conveyed by Putin, or Zakharova and Lavrov. For example, about negotiations, he says that we do not want and will not negotiate with anyone. And in an interview with the same Tucker Carlson, we heard Putin say several times that Russia is supposedly ready for negotiations, let’s come to an agreement already.

That's what I'm talking about. He makes statements that go against the official position of the Kremlin. One could assume that all this is being coordinated, perhaps Putin says to him: “Dima, let’s say something else, let them get scared, and then I will go out and calm everyone down.”

That is, we cannot exclude that Putin understands that this is a person who is absolutely degraded, he has no sense of dignity, so he will actually voice any nonsense, and this could be such a game.

First, Medvedev comes out, instills fear in everyone, talks about the fact that: “We will now arrange a nuclear apocalypse for everyone, missiles will fly here, here we will capture and destroy you all, etc.” And then Putin comes out and says: “No, well, we respect these borders, what are you talking about, we are generally only for negotiations.” That is, such a game can really happen.

Why Xi and Erdogan started talking about negotiations again

Here China began another series of its so-called peace initiatives. How realistic is China’s desire today to somehow enter into the situation to resolve this war? And can we expect any concrete results from the visit of China’s special representative to Ukraine, Russia and European countries?

China's position is by and large conservative. China stands for a peaceful solution to what they call a “conflict”; they avoid the word “war”, but only in the Chinese understanding of this solution. That is, by it they mean respect for the interests of Russia. This means that, as they like to say in Russia, the territorial reality of the situation must be taken into account.

That is, China advocates that, in essence, to de facto secure the status of the occupied Ukrainian territories for Russia, to end the war there, to determine some kind of procedure, let’s say, incentives or compensation for Ukraine, it is unclear how, for the destroyed infrastructure, lost housing, destroyed apartments, houses. That is, some kind of “solution”.

China wants this war to end unambiguously, but in such a way that Russia does not lose. This is where Beijing's interest lies. Because it is important for China to achieve a precedent in international law that Russia will not bear any responsibility or punishment for its actions.

Because China thinks in the same categories and extrapolates this situation further to Taiwan. Therefore, he wants to ensure that Russia does not answer for the occupation of Ukrainian lands, so that later, taking advantage of this precedent, it can occupy Taiwan and say: “Well, Russia didn’t answer, these were their historical territories. And we also returned our historical territories – control over the island of Taiwan.” This is where China's interest lies.

The leader of Turkey also offered his platform for peace negotiations, despite the fact that we have not heard something like this for a long time. Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War wrote that China and Turkey continue to use their own negotiating platforms to supposedly resolve the situation in Ukraine, but Russia is simply using them to advance its information operations aimed at preventing further international support for Kyiv. Is this really so and why Erdogan woke up?

Erdogan woke up not today, he offered himself as a mediator in the spring of 2022 and, let me remind you, it was in Turkey that a round of negotiations took place with the participation of the delegation of Ukraine and Russia. There is nothing new here, he is trying to win and raise the stakes for himself. Because anyone who mediates will gain influence, benefit and receive very serious dividends from it.

Other states, such as Switzerland or Saudi Arabia, have also made attempts to use themselves as a mediator. In general, if we ignore individual states, we can say that most of them represent the so-called Global South, the influence of which should not be underestimated. And China represents the desire of this Global South to take the place it deserves in the system of international relations. Therefore, these attempts were absolutely readable and understandable.

Another thing is that there are certain countries that are more comfortable for negotiations – they suit both sides . And Türkiye is just one of them. The same Saudi Arabia can be considered as a likely intermediary country, unlike Switzerland. There are moments here that Russians may not be entirely happy with.

But it’s still important for us so that the Global Peace Summit, which Vladimir Zelensky spoke about, takes place. And, in particular, he invites the leaders of these states and the leaders of the Global South there. But again, it is unlikely that Xi Jinping will attend this meeting. Perhaps it is with the special representative that the conversation will take place about China finally taking the side of good?

Well, I would say this – China will definitely not be on the side of good. Because if we associate the side of good, that this is our position and that of our Western partners, China will definitely never be on it. Because it goes against their national interests.

China will pursue its own agenda to the end, and it will never coincide with our interests, the interests of our allies. It will never even coincide with the Russian one, because China has its own plan, relatively speaking. And this plan sees Russia solely as a tool and vassal of this story, but certainly not a full-fledged ally.