Putin wants to make a “bloodbath” in Ukraine, but is ready to make concessions/Getty Images
As of the fifth month of the war, the strategic plans of the Putin regime have not changed – this is the destruction of the sovereignty of Ukraine, the overthrow of the current government, replacing it with a pro-Russian one, the seizure new territories, and not just the Donbass and southern regions.
But in view of the catastrophic course of hostilities for the Russian society and economy and the total exhaustion of the armed forces, the military-political leadership of the Russian Federation is trying to conduct non-public negotiations with the United States and NATO, hoping to consolidate their political positions.
What concessions is the Kremlin ready for
As it became known both from sources close to decision-making centers in the Russian Federation and from publications in Russian publics, on the eve of the NATO Summit on June 28-30, Russian diplomats were tasked with reaching a certain coordination of positions with the North Atlantic Alliance.
For this, the Kremlin was even ready to replace Sergei Ryabkov, an unacceptable negotiator for the West, with Alexander Grushka.
Previously, it was reported about the ultimate concessions that Russia is ready to make: a partial withdrawal of Russian troops from the occupied territories (except Crimea) of Ukraine in exchange for a change of political leadership in Kyiv.
The same was announced during the last conversation , which took place on June 26, between the head of the foreign intelligence service of the Russian Federation, Sergei Naryshkin, and the director of the US National Intelligence, Avril Haynes.
It is noteworthy that the Russian official expressed concern that in the event of the return of Donbass to Ukraine and the change of power in Kyiv to pro-Russian, Poland and Britain will immediately launch the Independent Galicia project, which provides for the creation of a proxy state that will be hostile to Russia and will play the role of a buffer between NATO and Russia.
Nevertheless, the United States categorically rejected any proposals that provided for a change in the political leadership of Ukraine.
Putin wants a change of political leadership in Kyiv/Photo by Getty Images
“We haven't started yet”
At the same time, predicting such a scenario for the negotiation track, as early as June 22, Putin announced preparations for a “serious confrontation.” As a result, it all resulted in the infamous phrase of the Russian leader, which partially turned into a meme “we have not yet started for real.”
The Kremlin is absolutely sure that about 80% of the weapons and equipment received from the West Ukraine, is outdated, and new weapons do not comply with the announced agreements. At the same time, insuring against unnecessary risks, the Kremlin actively contributed to the promotion of the scandal around the statement of Victoria Spartz, counting on a significant reduction or complete cessation of Western aid.
The Russian Federation intends to completely seize Donbass by August-September 2022 and offer Ukraine peace on its own terms. Such terms are connected with the intention to hold a referendum on September 11 on the entry of the Kherson region and the pseudo-republics in the Donbass into the Russian Federation.
In the event that Ukraine and the West refuse to change power in Ukraine, and attempts to physically eliminate Vladimir Zelensky fail again, Russia is ready, by mobilizing all human and material resources (in particular, the CSTO countries), to seize as large a territory of Ukraine as possible, simultaneously counting on greater compliance of Europeans due to the approaching winter and the need for Russian energy resources.
These plans also take into account the factor of the American elections and the presence of “Putin's friends” in both camps of the American politicians and the use of the American factor of pressure on Ukraine.
p> According to sources, Putin will determine the final strategy for further actions after the completion of the July-August campaign on the territory of Donetsk and Luhansk regions plus southern Ukraine, in order to have an understanding of the resources that he will have at that time. The negotiation track will also be constantly active, as a visual alternative to the picture of the “bloodbath” that Putin hopes to arrange.
But since the scenario of negotiations with the Russian Federation on their terms is unacceptable for the West and Ukraine, a significant escalation is most likely in the near future< /strong> and the complete depletion of resources for conducting active military operations of the Russian Federation until the end of this year at most.
