On November 19, in response to the announcement of the US permission to strike Russia with long-range weapons, Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a decree approving an updated nuclear doctrine.
What Putin's nuclear doctrine provides for and what its consequences may be, ICTV Fakty discussed with the head of the Center for Countering Disinformation under the National Security and Defense Council Andrey Kovalenko and the deputy director of the Ukrainian Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies Mikhail Samus.
Updated Russian nuclear doctrine: what is known
According to Putin's new nuclear doctrine, Russia may allegedly use nuclear weapons in the event of:
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- receipt of reliable information about the launch of ballistic missiles at the territory of the Russian Federation and (or) its allies; massive launch (takeoff) of strategic or tactical aircraft, cruise missiles, unmanned, hypersonic and other aircraft) and their crossing of the state border of Russia;
- use of nuclear and other types of weapons of mass destruction on the territory of Russia and (or) its allies, on military formations and (or) on Russian facilities located outside its territory;
- impact on critically important state or military facilities of Russia, the incapacitation of which will lead to the disruption of retaliatory actions of nuclear forces;
- actions against Russia or Belarus as participants in the Union State using conventional weapons, which will create a “critical threat to their sovereignty and (or) territorial integrity”.
As stated in the document, Russia will regard “aggression” by a state from a military coalition or bloc as “aggression of such an association as a whole”.
“Aggression against the Russian Federation and (or) its allies” by any non-nuclear state with the participation or support of a nuclear state in Russia will be considered “their joint attack”.
By the way, the Kremlin's press secretary Dmitry Peskov has already stated that, according to the updated nuclear doctrine, the use of Western non-nuclear missiles may have a “nuclear response”.
Russia's Nuclear Doctrine: What the National Security and Defense Council's Center for Countering Disinformation Says
The Head of the Center for Countering Disinformation at the National Security and Defense Council, Andrey Kovalenko, noted in a commentary to ICTV Fakty that the update of the nuclear doctrine in the Russian Federation today is solely due to fear of the capabilities of the ATACMS missiles.
In particular, the head of the Center for Countering Disinformation at the National Security and Defense Council says, the Russians are concerned that these missiles can effectively and quickly knock out their infrastructure, including the production sites of the Shaheds, their storage warehouses, as well as a number of other warehouses.
– Permission for long-range strikes will significantly affect Russia’s ability to wage an intensive war, which is why Putin is trying to intimidate Ukraine’s allies first and foremost with his readiness to launch a nuclear strike, – Andrey Kovalenko noted.
The head of the Center for Countering Disinformation at the National Security and Defense Council emphasizes that it is difficult to understand what is on Putin’s mind.
However, he reminds us that nuclear threats have been ongoing since 2022, and during this time the head of the Kremlin has not taken any serious action.
Moreover, Andrey Kovalenko notes, despite the update of the nuclear doctrine, no exercises have even been conducted in Russia to use nuclear weapons weapons.
Therefore, for now the new nuclear doctrine, concludes Andrey Kovalenko, is exclusively intimidation and information noise.
Russia's Nuclear Doctrine: Expert Commentary
Deputy Director of the Ukrainian Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies Mykhailo Samus, in a commentary to ICTV Fakty, emphasized that nuclear weapons are, first and foremost, weapons of deterrence.
Therefore, Mykhailo Samus is sure that Putin's actions are attempts to create new nuclear deterrence capabilities in the current conditions.
Currently, the expert says, the head of the Kremlin is thus preparing for the coming to power of newly elected US President Donald Trump and his promises to freeze the war.
– “Freezing the War” for Putin, this is the capitulation of Ukraine, which is why he is doing this now.
Massive missile strikes, attempts to advance on the front, the killing of civilians – these are the steps Putin is taking to demonstrate that he is winning, and there is no point in helping Ukraine.
And he is not going to give in on any of the points in the event of negotiations with Trump, – the deputy director of the Ukrainian Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies is convinced.
At the moment, says Mikhail Samus, Putin understands that Trump will need to somehow motivate Ukraine and Russia to stop, so he is working to ensure that the new US president motivates Ukraine to surrender by stopping the provision of aid.
– This is exactly the option Putin is working on. He is trying to create conditions so that it would be easier for Trump to put pressure on Ukraine, and not on him. And, obviously, it plays on the narratives about the third world war, spread by members of the team of the newly elected US president, says Mikhail Samus.
According to the expert, Putin's new nuclear doctrine supported the narrative recently spread by Donald Trump Jr. that “permission to strike long-range weapons on Russian territory could unleash World War III even before his father comes to power”.
At the same time, Mikhail Samus is confident that Russia is not ready to use nuclear weapons, especially against NATO.
– Russia is not ready to fight NATO. Russia cannot occupy the Donetsk region in 1,000 days of war in Ukraine. It is not worth saying that the Russians will fight against the NATO Joint Forces. This is something fantastic. This is just creating illusions and playing on narratives about the third world war, the expert believes.
According to Mikhail Samus, the new nuclear doctrine does not change anything, because Russia will not enter into a nuclear conflict with the United States, because it will end in a global catastrophe.
Russia, the expert says, may play on fears of the use of nuclear weapons on Ukrainian territory.
The US and NATO at this time will not know how to respond to this threat, since a reaction by force would effectively mean entering into a war with Russia, and the latter constantly talks about the inadmissibility of a direct conflict with the Russian Federation.
At the same time, China will negatively perceive a reaction by the US and NATO that is inadequate to the actions of the Kremlin.
The PRC may assess this situation as a “weakening” United States, which is the main foreign policy aspect of China's activities.
Therefore, the expert says, the situation is quite complicated, given the possibility of using tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine.
However, Mikhail Samus is sure, there are obviously no prerequisites for this now, because the Kremlin needs to prepare for a conversation with Trump from a strong position to show that Russia does not intend to give in.
According to the expert, Trump has trapped himself with statements about settling the war in Ukraine within 24 hours. And now Putin, with his actions, is forcing the newly elected President of the United States to seek Ukraine's capitulation.
Mikhail Samus is convinced that the Western press will now pick up the news about the new nuclear doctrine, and a considerable wave of information and psychological operations will undoubtedly begin, aimed at Trump, his team, and the countries of Europe.
Western media will write that it is precisely because of the permission to strike with long-range weapons that Putin is raising the stakes, so Ukraine needs to surrender.
Although Putin's nuclear doctrine, the expert is sure, does not actually change anything at all.
