Putin really wants a ceasefire, truce and negotiations/Getty Images
In fact, the Russian Federation passionately seeks a ceasefire, a truce and negotiations. What for? It's not just about Ukraine. This is evidenced by the results of our regular monitoring of the rhetoric of top Russian officials in July 2022.
ShareFbTwiTelegramViberShareFbTwiTelegramViber
The military reasons for this are obvious. The Kremlin's dream of gaining time to fix the annexation of the newly occupied territories of Ukraine is also obvious.
Russia's plan failed
An attempt to build a ceasefire, that is, a truce, into the grain theme during the Istanbul meetings failed because of the position of Ukraine. Annoyance at this failure resulted in a demonstrative missile attack on the port of Odessa. According to the perverted logic of the Russian Federation, this is “coercion to a ceasefire.” Such will be Russian provocations if ships with Ukrainian grain leave Ukrainian ports.
But this is not only and not so much. Russia began a strategic turn to the South and East – Asia and Africa. Russia understood and agreed that it had already been “expelled from Europe.” And it no longer identifies itself with Europe and the Western world and – this is the most important thing – is not going to return there. This reversal takes time, both in politics and in the redesign of all economic logistics.
Moreover, Russia also realized that there would be no lifting of sanctions. And in order to have this time, negotiations and a ceasefire are needed.
The Kremlin's dreams
Russia already knows that the mechanism of missile coercion to negotiations and a truce will not work with respect to Ukraine. Therefore, hopes came to the fore that the mechanism of gas coercion would work in Europe, which, according to the Kremlin's dreams, is the “weak link” and should force Ukraine to ceasefire.
And since the EU (according to the Kremlin's beliefs) is completely controlled by the United States, the final addressee of the negotiation dreams becomes clear. Moreover, the “theoretical” foundation of the Russian vision of a new division of the world has not changed from the well-known proposals in the US and NATO since December 2021.
Of course, Russia will try to use the domestic political situation in Europe and the US for this and increase the potential dissatisfaction of European voters with all kinds of favorite economic mischief.
Of course, in order to disrupt the unity of the EU and NATO in Russia, they will try to use the leaders of Hungary and Turkey with their synchronous calls to change their attitude towards Putin. At the same time, they will try to strengthen the potential and influence of the BRICS and SCO and build up the anti-Western campaign in Africa and Asia.
To win the Great War of the 21st century, one should analyze and evaluate any current events and the place of Ukraine and Western civilization in such a wide world context. And, of course, prepare for Russian blackmail of Europe.
