Putin raised the stakes even higher: an interview with Podolyak about the agreement between Russia and the DPRK and the role of China Irina Uzlova Oksana Kharkovska Vladimir Putin visited North Korea for the first time in 24 years, where he signed a cooperation agreement with fellow dictator Kim Jong-un. The signing of this agreement raises the stakes in Russia's war against Ukraine. This opinion is in An exclusive interview with Channel 24 was voiced by Advisor to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Mikhail Podolyak, noting that now the West will need to invest even more in global security. About the visit of the Russian dictator to the DPRK, the reaction of Western partners and the role of China in relations between Putin and Kim Jong-un – read further in the material. Vladimir Putin visited the DPRK. Do we see now that Russia or China are trying to form not just an alliance of authoritarian states and an axis of evil, but an “Anti-NATO” bloc, as they themselves articulate? Or is he simply traveling with an outstretched hand to seek help against the backdrop of failures on the battlefield? I would advise leaving China out of the equation, it is not participating. For China, for example, North Korea is also a significant problem in the region. And that is a completely different story. Russia would certainly like to build an “Anti-NATO”, but it is not capable of doing so. It all comes down to simple questions: is it possible to find resources somewhere? We periodically read, strange to me, publications about how the Russian economy has become completely militarized and is capable of covering the entire deficit, for example, of the same shell. No, this is not so. It is extremely important for Russia to have some support from the only country that today records its assistance to it in full. This is a classic terrorist alliance, where there are Russia and North Korea – this is legally fixed, and there is Iran, but it is not on the same terms as North Korea. This is such a de facto alliance (with Iran – Channel 24), and with North Korea there is already a legal alliance. Putin himself came to pay his respects to the dictator (Kim Jong-un), who is waging a large-scale war in Europe – this is quite important for the internal propaganda pressure that is constantly present in North Korea. For Putin, this is an opportunity to get an additional shell. They have already received 4.5 million shells from North Korea, they are already receiving certain short-range ballistic missiles, and so on. It was already obvious that they would cooperate. If at first Sergei Shoigu went to North Korea, now they talk less about him, at one time he was quite an influential person, but now the level of Andrei Belousov (the current Russian Minister of Defense – Channel 24) is not enough for a North Korean dictator. And, of course, he needs a Putin who will look like an imitation of a dictatorial model of behavior. However, what is important is that North Korea and Russia have legally recorded this cooperation, which is absolutely prohibited, that is, this cannot happen. And it is important that we do not hear or see any key international institution – the UN. Because there are resolutions that completely prohibit such strategic agreements. Not even just strategic agreements, but in general cooperation in the military sphere of North Korea with anyone. After this there must be some legal, informational, diplomatic consequences. Yesterday’s visit and yesterday’s signed agreement on strategic partnership finally, in my opinion, puts point in the existence of international institutions like the UN. They are incompetent in the full sense. They do not have instruments of coercion, influence and do not influence the processes at all, and this is extremely negative. The Kremlin’s cooperation with Pyongyang itself will have a certain impact, given resource provision of Russia with a projectile, but given the strategic objectives, it will not be of significant importance. However, this finally puts an end to the existence of such institutions as the UN. We remember all the statements, they say, “if the DPRK transfers something to Russia”… However, today there is a legal fact of fixing a strategic military partnership, that is, North Korea has recorded its direct refusal to comply with all UN resolutions, and at the same time the DPRK has recorded its direct participation in the war against the civilian population of a third country – Ukraine. About Putin's visit to North Korea
What consequences will the treaty between Russia and the DPRK have< /h2>
This agreement, in addition to what is called a comprehensive partnership agreement, deepening cooperation in the military-political sphere, concerns many areas of military-technical cooperation, provides for cooperation in the economic, trade, cultural, humanitarian, security spheres, and does not exclude response and assistance each other in case of aggression. How will dictators use this agreement against Ukraine and against the West? What practical consequences can it lead to?
It can have consequences exclusively in the sphere of military cooperation, that is, North Korea will work to kill the civilian population in Ukraine.
In addition, it is a political and legal fixation of the alliance. Russia shows that it is not alone in waging a war, that it is fighting in a certain configuration, in which there is North Korea. This is already a large-scale escalation, to which not only European countries or the United States must respond. It would be desirable to see a certain reaction from them. In my opinion, the answer is to accelerate the supply of certain types of weapons to Ukraine.
However, it would be desirable to see China’s reaction. Why? Because for China, everything that is happening is an extremely negative trend, which will have certain consequences for destabilizing the region. China, in my opinion, is not at all interested in destabilizing the region and global destabilization. This is not why they carried out their internal revolution, transformation of the political system, rebuilding it under Xi Jinping.
It seems to me that China, which today claims to be such a fundamental, global leader, sees an insignificant country called North Korea, which is just a small aggressor, a destabilizer, and Russia, which has lost all global influence and can influence the situation exclusively through genocidal practices within the framework of one war or another, completely destroy the calm and stability in the region. And accordingly, they will influence China’s positions and its ability to regulate and manage such situations.
The main problem that exists in the global political space today is institutions in general incapacitated. There are no instruments of coercion, no instruments of influence, and no instruments to guarantee the implementation of certain rules. This agreement finally fixes the absolute absence of global rules and instruments that will force countries to comply with these rules.
This is not even about international law anymore. And this is an extremely dangerous situation. That is, certain European countries still live in the illusion that there really are some agreements, that the world is cooperating within the framework of these agreements, and that certain conflicts can be resolved at the negotiating table. No, this agreement definitively says that there are no sites.
It would be desirable to see some kind of reaction other than Ukraine, to see the reaction of the UN, the United States, European Union under the agreement between Putin and North Korea. There is no need to pretend that this agreement does not affect anything. Yes, it will not significantly influence the course of events along the front line, because North Korea is already supplying everything that it will continue to supply. However, from the point of view of a signaling breakdown of the political global system, this is very important. name=”How Zahid may react to please Russia and the DPRK”>How the West should react to the agreement between Russia and the DPRK
Pentagon spokesman Pat Ryder said that There is growing concern about a meeting between North Korean and Russian dictators. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg drew attention to the fact that cooperation between authoritarian regimes is increasing. However, these are statements that we have heard before – they do not contain specifics or algorithms on how to prevent this. At the same time, China is silent.
In my opinion, there should be a reaction . We live in information times, here we need to make certain statements, and they know how to make them. I like the statements of both Mr. Stoltenberg and Mr. Ryder. Regarding the war in Ukraine, very good statements are also being made. However, the logistics must be different.
Firstly, this is public confirmation that the volume of military supplies to Ukraine will increase significantly. These volumes should not just grow rhetorically, but should go to Ukraine. Partners must remove all discussions about bans on striking somewhere; bans on certain types of weapons; or limiting the number of weapons, for example long-range ones.
Secondly, there should be extraordinary meetings, for example, of the UN Security Council and membership Russia should be suspended. This must be a fairly clear legal action. In addition, appropriate sanctions resolutions should be imposed on North Korea and Russia.
For example, representatives of the People's Republic of China should participate in this, so that they don't talk about their peace plan, which has 12 points, and the first is territorial integrity, and the second is an immediate ceasefire, so that Russia does not leave the occupied territory.
We need to stop listening to this, and listen to how China will regulate the problem of the uncontrolled territory called North Korea, which is absolutely clearly destabilizing the region. In parallel, it is necessary to make statements and legal and logistical steps, that is, supply weapons and suspend Russia's membership, because North Korea is nowhere to be found and it is impossible to influence it in any way.
Not just shells: why Putin needs the agreement
Regarding UN membership, Russia illegally took a seat in the Security Council of the UN General Assembly. There have already been many reasons to exclude the aggressor country from there, but this is not being done. What needs to happen for this to happen?
This institution (UN – 24 Channel) is not capable and there will be no reformatting. She will continue to exist like this. They (UN members – Channel 24) feel quite comfortable: they have large budgets; perform certain functions; They have a fairly well-organized personal life. I don't see any reason for them to change all this. They don't take any responsibility or anything like that.
Legally, Russia cannot be in the UN even on the basis that it is not a country that should have taken the place of the USSR. They did not go through the legal procedure, so Russia is a member of the UN illegally. However, this is no longer important. What is important is that by an act of criminal aggression they have absolutely nullified their understanding of Articles 4 and 5 of the UN. On this basis, membership should have been suspended in accordance with the regulations.
I hope that the global system, which still lives in illusions, still makes money on the absolute disregard of fundamental problems that today affect the kind of world we will live in tomorrow, will respond to this adequately.
There is an investigation into an organization related to the UN – the IAEA – for the training of Iranian nuclear specialists on Russian territory. This is a fundamental issue that should have received its due assessment, but it will not. Global institutions are investing in destabilizing the global political and economic security space. This is so obvious that I don’t know why they should behave any differently.
When we talk about a legally fixed alliance between North Korea and Russia , then it says something a little different. That the cost of war for Western countries will only increase. Two years ago it was impossible to imagine that there would be permission for Ukraine to attack Russian territory, but today it exists.
Russia and the DPRK signed a cooperation agreement/Getty Images
If we had received these permits and ATACMS two years ago, there would have been much less material and human losses and the counteroffensive would have developed much faster. It would be possible to come to certain fair endings in this war. Today the price is already much higher.
Nuclear escalation is increasing significantly today. We see statements from Russia. There are also statements from Jens Stoltenberg that the nuclear forces of the European coalitions and the North Atlantic Alliance will be put on alert. Therefore, we should expect certain transformations, and this is escalation, and this is a completely different price for war.
The signing of the treaty between North Korea and Russia is an even higher stake in this war, even more will have to be spent on security. This is not even about Ukraine anymore. This is about the fact that it is impossible to return to some kind of relations between Europe and Russia, because someone has to lose. The point of no return has already been passed. There is no longer such a thing that you can close your eyes.
Putin said on the eve of the Peace Summit that it is worth turning the tragic page and building new good relations with Ukraine and Europe. Russia came to cut people, to rape. Tens of thousands of people were killed, millions of people are now forced to look for other homes.
Europe must also realize this, they cannot go back to the way things were before. A little earlier there was an attempt to invite Russia to take part in the celebration of the Allied landing in Normandy. This is nonsense. Russia is a country that absolutely nullifies everything that happened in World War II. She revived classic Nazism, and in the West they continue to flirt with her.
They offered to invite 24 athletes from Russia and Belarus under neutral flags to the Olympics in Paris . This is all happening against the backdrop of this signing of an agreement between North Korea and Russia and suggests that the world is not balanced.
Russia is doing this demonstratively. But why is it doing this? It's not just to amuse Kim Jong-un's egocentrism or to get an additional two million shells. No. Russia is doing this to show other unstable regimes and potential pro-Russian terrorist organizations on different continents that it is influential; that it still has the ability to nullify international law; that it should be joined; that it will have the right of veto, which it will always use.
This shows other aggressors that they can attack other countries if they have some “claims” against them. Russia's behavior shows others that they can behave aggressively. This is what the signing of the legal alliance between North Korea and Russia demonstrates.
Russia invites everyone else (aggressors – Channel 24) not to pay attention to the rules. After all, all the large-scale war crimes she committed live on the territory of Ukraine do not prevent her from using the right of veto. Russia's behavior suggests that if all aggressors do the same, they will distract attention from Russia's actions on the territory of Ukraine. Then everyone will be able to behave more aggressively in Eastern Europe, and Putin will defend everyone and say that the world dictators are not to blame for anything.
There is an important practical point in this agreement. Russia has failed to shift world attention to the war in the Middle East to completely stop talk about Ukraine. It used to be that attention to Ukraine was much less and everyone switched to the Middle East, but now Russia wants to create such attention in the Pacific region.
How to force Russia to peace
Putin was forgiven for the annexation of Georgia in 2008, the illegal annexation of the Ukrainian Crimea in 2014, and the invasion of the territory of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions. What prevents the world from understanding that Russian aggression, thanks to its allied cooperation with other aggressors, will only scale up if Putin is not stopped now?
Modern politicians lack masculinity. They don't want to take responsibility. They don't want to overcome their inner fears. These are not fears of nuclear escalation, no. These are internal fears. This applies not only to war.
In the European Parliament, right-wing parties get better results than classical European parties. Because the right is more charismatic. They say that they are ready to give answers to complex questions, they are ready to put their names behind it. And classical European politics, unfortunately, was not ready to take responsibility for a long time. They still live in the illusion that if they look the other way, don't look up, the problem will somehow sort itself out.
Today they started a little wake up from these illusions. We see a good reaction from the countries of Northern and Eastern Europe, but, unfortunately, there is no collective understanding. Russia must definitely lose. In every sense of the word. And after a loss, she must go for transformation. This is the only chance to rebuild the global security space, bring back some rules, rethink international law, rethink institutions.
Putin is not a subject with whom you can talk. It's difficult to analyze. He is a low-intellectual person who has a large number of internal complexes and is fixated on hatred. He wants to compensate for this hatred by constantly attacking others, killing others. He likes it. For him, war is the meaning of life.
You can’t talk to him about the rules. You can only talk to him from a position of strength, if you need to talk at all, in order to have something understandable about the ending of this war. Russia can only be forced to peace. What kind of coercion is this?
Firstly, these are military defeats for Russia, and for this there must be much more weapons. After all, it is impossible to conduct direct combat with an enemy who has a completely different attitude to the cost of life.
Secondly, economic coercion. Now there are dozens, hundreds of European companies that operate in Russia. They are deliberately financing the Russian war, and they also demonstrate this and say that they are making great money on the Russian consumer market. And this is financing the war. If they take money from financing the war, then its cost increases, and this is the only thing that will influence the elites, who will lose more and more. Then they will ask themselves questions.
Thirdly, diplomatic pressure. You cannot simultaneously say that Russia will come to the OSCE summit, where European security will be discussed, and at the same time say that Russia is an aggressor country. It doesn’t work this way, because it misleads both Europeans and those countries that are neutral.
Is the behavior of Putin and Kim Jong-un beneficial to China
Is China monitoring the relations between North Korea and Russia? Or is North Korea an independent player.
China is much more than the need to control North Korea. China is using the war in Ukraine negatively for us in order to significantly increase its global political influence.
China is not interested in fully adapting the Russian player. It is also not interested in North Korea destabilizing the region. Because this is a region dominated by China. If there is some country with inadequate behavior that can start armed aggression against anyone at any time and for no reason, then it will cause economic and political damage. China has no interest in North Korea behaving aggressively.
China is interested in North Korea existing. After all, it irritates the United States, Japan and South Korea. These countries are forced to spend certain funds to neutralize this entire threat. Therefore, they will talk to China a little differently.
The same with Russia. She is a vassal of China. If he stops paying attention to it, then Russia will not be able to withstand the economic potential of the European coalition of Ukraine.
China is using Russia/Getty Images
China is interested in Russia existing in vassal dependence on it, because it increases its influence on internal political processes in Russia. Russian stock exchanges discuss not the dollar and euro exchange rate, but the yuan exchange rate.
China has absolute control over the Far East. It controls the economic component, because it is objectively the largest market for Russia and at the same time is Russia's largest supplier. Beijing is interested in the Kremlin aggressively attacking the global world order, so that it can significantly increase its influence.
China wants to sit at the table one-on-one with the United States of America, and to do this it needs to further reduce the influence of both the United States and the European Union. This is an absolutely primitive strategy, but China is sticking to it.
And yet he is not interested in completely unbalancing the world, but Russia is. She wants to gain dominance in the world through force, through chaos, through war, through terrorism. China certainly does not want to gain dominance in the world through war, chaos and terrorism. However, he wants to dominate. This is a complex structure.
For us, of course, this is bad, because if China were completely rational and understood that it is already much more than Russia, which attacks its national interests, could have long ago resolved the issue of indirect influence on Russia and significantly reduced its ambitions.
How long will Xi Jinping use Putin
Russian opposition economist Maxim Blunt believes that Xi Jinping, if he wishes, can end the war in Ukraine in three days, saying Putin. However, China now benefits from the fact that Russia is weakened and dependent on it. At the same time, the US and Europe are suffering reputational losses. How long will China benefit from such a balance of power?
First of all ideal constructions that someone can solve the issue of war and peace in 24 hours or three days are all fiction. Even if a consolidated decision is made on the correct finalization of the war, it will take quite a long time – months, not days.
As for China, it received Russia, which is practically on its knees. Moreover, he continues to receive from the fact that she bends lower and lower and humiliates herself.
In parallel with this, China's reputation, indirectly, certainly shows around the world, the unpreparedness of classical European, Euro-Atlantic, and North American elites to make quick anti-crisis decisions. China is indirectly, unconsciously doing everything to prove that it can give up and everything will be decided in a couple of days.
These publications create a reputation that actually does not exist. Why should China give up all this? He will keep it as long as it gives him profits: reputational, financial, influential, configuration, and the like. He finally removes Russia’s influence from the region, removes it from global dominance.
In addition, China is finally eliminating the monoworld. The world should be bipolar, he thinks. Beijing has direct discussions with European leaders; they consider it quite powerful. Olaf Scholz, Emmanuel Macron, Ursula von der Leyen come to China and hold meetings there. This is all quite cheap for China. On the contrary, he makes money both in the war and by buying Russian raw materials at dumping prices with minimal costs.
There is a humanistic component to this. However, China, unfortunately, is not one of the countries that pay attention to humanitarian components. For example, about children being kidnapped, about the fact that many migrants have appeared. This does not affect China's national interests.
Moreover, China is the guarantor of food supplies to the African continent. There is Chinese influence on Latin America, which has increased significantly over the past two years, on the African continent as well.
So, Russia is behaving as aggressively as possible in Africa, she makes revolutions there. And when it stages a coup, for example, in Nigeria, it seizes control of uranium deposits. So who is the guarantor that everything will be more or less under control there? China.
Beijing is playing into a big, powerful game. All this could have been predicted by analysis, and it was possible to talk differently with China, but not with Ukraine. We are, of course, an interested party, and our president and Ukraine as a whole are working very fruitfully in this direction. However, this is a much more global game.
At the same time, global political elites are not ready to take responsibility. Because it would be possible to have an open conversation with China. He stops Russia’s aggression, because he has the appropriate resources, and then he can sign other contracts. However, the elites do not do this because they cannot formulate it.
Russia is trying to get out of its losing state. Putin's visit to North Korea is precisely about this. It does not now look like the global power it was before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. And China looks at it with contempt.
However, the European and American elites are not doing what they should be doing. They should propose a completely different configuration of the global distribution of influence and discuss this with China.
Read the second part of the interview with Mikhail Podolyak soon on the 24 Channel website.
