Putin failed to realize any of his plans for Ukraine/Getty Images
Many people spoke about the war between Russia and Ukraine. Recently, a very interesting thing has appeared – the transformation of Russian theses.
The Kremlin's wishes remained in dreams
When you develop any policy, any combination, you evaluate the result. You either get what you want, or you get some of what you want, or you don't get anything.
Against this background, it is quite logical to see what goals Russia voiced, what she got as a result, and what will remain of this after the end of the war. In our case, I would not talk about what was said in the Russian media (this is a separate topic), I would pay attention to the words of the heads of the Russian state – that is, President Putin, Foreign Minister Lavrov, Foreign Ministry Speaker Maria Zakharova, Shoigu, while he could speak, etc. Well, let's get started.
If we are talking about global goals, then the key global goal of the Russian Federation was determined at the consultations at the end of 2021. That is, the so-called major agreement that would secure the status of a superpower for the Russian Federation, which would enable Russia to reach a global agreement of the parties on a new virtual division of the world with one or two, or three centers of influence, one of which was going to be the Russian Federation.
A united NATOLavrov's quote that “the goal is to weaken the influence of the US and NATO in the region“. This is one of the first goals announced at the end of February. Well, great. Let's see what is happening now. Due to the fact that Ukraine has not surrendered, Ukraine is fighting, Ukraine is showing that it is possible to fight with Russia, that we On the one hand, Russia is no longer such a threat, and on the other hand, states that were previously neutral are already thinking that it is not worth believing Russian promises or guarantees.
Sweden and Finland may become members of NATO. Regarding Finland, there was a separate gentlemen's agreement that this state is neutral, it does not join NATO and cooperates with both. In principle, this was the basis of Finnish politics. So, neutrality, but very armed. What do we have now? Russia spoke about the time of approach to the capitals. For a moment, please ask yourself the question: how many kilometers from the Finnish border, for example, to St. Petersburg? And what is the time of the rocket's approach?
The second result is a sharp strengthening of the eastern flank of the NATO bloc. This is the renewal of weapons, the creation of new bases, the strengthening of the presence. Another point to weaken the influence of the US and NATO. NATO had very strong contradictions. Let us recall the conflict between Trump and Merkel, which was actually an illustration of the conflict between the US and Germany, contradictions at the US-France level, and the like. What do we have now? Many contradictions within NATO against the backdrop of Russian aggression against Ukraine fade into the background. Among them is a separate opinion of Germany.
And finally, if we talk about weakening, then there is such a thing as working from the inside. That is, your lobbyists, friendly parties who are pursuing the policy you need. Try to ask yourself the question: have Russian lobbyists become stronger or weaker in NATO countries? Well, for example, in Germany and France, in particular, where are they especially strong?
The “cementing” of power in Ukraine
Next, we move on to the intra-Ukrainian bloc. Big and “noble” goals (of Russia – Channel 24), which suggest that there will be a new government in Ukraine. We look under what conditions and when this goal was set.
So, the situation is the end of 2021. Zelensky came to the start of the war in a state of stabilization of his rating at the level of 23-25%. This is part of Zelensky's core support. But there were conflicts with key support groups. That is, a conflict with small businesses, a sharp political confrontation with Poroshenko and at the same time with Medvedchuk, conflicts with oligarchs, and with almost everyone. That is, a big war of all against all was brewing.
Moreover, given that the oligarchic groups had media under their control, then in this case the fate of Zelensky would be, to put it mildly, unenviable. In fact, questions were being resolved about how to redistribute power without de facto changing the Constitution or how to overthrow Zelensky and his “servants” as early as 2023. At the same time, conditionally pro-Russian parties, such as the Opposition Platform for Life, Medvedchuk, they had a chance to strengthen their positions.
What did they get in the end? Where is Medvedchuk? Poroshenko is trying to PR, but to put it mildly, a little unsuccessful. Zelensky's rating is clearly over 80%. And there was a mobilization of the population. What is the change of power? It didn't work either.
Ukraine has armed itself for centuries
Let's move on. Demilitarization of Ukraine. Neutralization of military potential. So, in Ukraine, the reform of the army took place, Ukraine has somewhat strengthened. But what do we have today? If we are talking about what is happening in terms of the transfer of weapons to the Ukrainian army, we have a transfer of heavy weapons even from Germany. I'm not talking about Finland, the Baltic countries, Poland, Romania, the Czech Republic, France, Britain, the USA. That is, the military potential has increased.
Next – a large military department as the Russian army. Let me remind you once again that there are more captured Russian weapons (in terms of tanks, armored vehicles) than those lost by Ukraine. That is, the military potential of Ukraine in these areas has grown significantly.
And another small “but” – weapons in the hands of the population. Obviously, this is not demilitarization. In fact, Ukraine is turning into a militaristic state, and this is, in principle, a conscious choice. And this state will remain so – whether the Russian Federation likes it or not. Because it is a matter of Ukraine's survival. Because when your neighbor writes in a program article on RIA Novosti that you need to be destroyed, the very name Ukraine should be banned, then you either arm yourself, or …
But the result of Russian policy (I say again – it will be regardless of results of the war) – demilitarization somehow didn’t come out of the word at all.
It didn’t work out with “denazification” either
The next goal that was voiced at the last stage was “denazification” , to make Ukrainians friends of Russia. Let's see what's happening now.
Back at the end of 2021, if I were asked in which cities of the Russian Federation it could theoretically have support, its own base, votes for conditionally pro-Russian parties, I would name Kharkov, Odessa, Krivoy Rog and the like. Regarding Kharkov, as they say, this is a sad song for the Russians – they are killed there. Odessa – I want to recall the words of Trukhanov. We will not remember the cruiser “Moskva”. Krivoy Rog – Vilkul. What a pro-Russian politician! To what extent he was really considered almost a conductor of the “Russian world”. And Vilkul, who sends Tsarev after the Russian ship and says that we will fight – to put it mildly, this is interesting.
“Denazification”. Favorite phrase of Ukrainians is “Russian ship, go to x**”. Also right here. Next – a song about “viburnum, the yak is healed.” This is an excerpt from the anthem of the Sich Riflemen, the very ones who fought against the Russian Empire during the First World War.
Mova instead of “language”
In the end, Russian-speakers, what I notice in the cities, are trying to speak Ukrainian. The Russian language, of course, will not disappear after the war. He will remain in the regions where they speak Russian, he will remain in communication. But, sorry, it will be Ukrainian Russian.
This is what started happening in Odessa in 2014. That Odessa Russian culture, as it was called, has nothing to do with modern Russia. This process will pick up simply colossal speed, colossal power. Because few people want to identify themselves with the Russian Federation. Even in the same Russian-speaking regions.
Because, I'm sorry, Sumy is a Russian-speaking city that was bombed, Kharkov was bombed. Zaporozhye, Odessa, Nikolaev – do you believe that Russians will be loved there? Funny. Here, “denazification” somehow didn't quite work out either.
It turns out that it's just the border of the conditional “Russian world” or at least some conditional sympathy for the “Russian world” – it is very distracted by East. And it is very likely that, as a result of the war, it will move to the borders of Ukraine.
