Russian dictator Vladimir Putin strongly believes in the sacredness of dates and wants to achieve some results in the war against Ukraine so far. It won't be some huge achievement.
About itChannel 24said political scientist, sociologist from Germany Igor Eidman. According to him, the belief that it is imperative to captivate something for a certain holiday is a reflection of the Soviet paradigm in the Russian worldview. Russia in the context of the war
Igor Eidman noted that Russian President Vladimir Putin himself does not know what the general goal of his actions in the war against the Ukrainian people is. The tactical goal is quite understandable.
According to the political scientist, all people born during the Soviet era perfectly remember the importance attached to various memorable dates and holidays in the Soviet Union.
It has always been very important to report before the date, hand over the construction object before the date, achieve some progress by the date. Before October 7, May 1 or 9, you need to report, – he stressed. >”I must say that this window dressing had a negative impact on those cases that were devoted to dates,” he said.
The reason for this was the haste and not a very high-quality result.
I hope if Putin now follows the Soviet tradition and tries something like that on February 24 to do it, it will be a gamble and it will not lead to anything good for the Russian troops,” Eidman commented.
However, something should still be expected.
Igor Eidman told which dates are very sacred for Russia and Putin: watch the video
What Putin will decide on the anniversary of the war
The political scientist said that there is quite a bit of time left until February 24th. In three weeks, Russia is unlikely to be able to prepare a large-scale invasion. However, this does not mean that Putin will abandon the long-standing Soviet tradition.
Of course, he will need to take something like this and report back, he stressed.
We can talk about successes at the front in the Donbass. Eidman noted that for more than a month there have been heavy battles in the Donetsk region for Bakhmut, before that for Soledar. Probably, it is this direction that the Russians will choose as a priority.
“I think that the threat is activated, for example, to take Bakhmut or some other small Ukrainian cities. It seems to me that this is more realistic before February 24 than any large-scale invasion,” he added.
The political scientist commented that this does not exclude the possibility that Russia will nevertheless decide to attack Ukraine again. >
Eidman emphasized that in addition to February 24, there will soon be another even more sacred victory for the Russian religion – this is May 9.
“Until May 9, they will definitely some success is needed, because May 9 is such a major religious holiday in Russia in the pagan religion of war, victory, the cult of ancestors,” the political scientist explained.
In his opinion, it is precisely to this day that Russia will want to report on successes at the front.
“Putin will try to intensify military operations until May 9 and, possibly, will resort to a wider offensive,” – Eidman commented.
However, it is still difficult to say how large-scale the offensive will be. However, there may still be new adventures from the enemy.
Forecasts about the probable offensive of infidels: what is known
- The head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense, Kirill Budanov, believes that in 2023 Russia will focus on seizing the Luhansk region and Donbass. However, enemy activity in other directions cannot be ruled out.
- The Guardian journalists analyzed the course of the war and named the directions in which Russia could launch an offensive. They believe that the Luhansk and Donetsk fronts are the arena of the most intense fighting over the past few months. An easterly direction is perhaps the most likely for major offensives on both sides in the spring.
- NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg noted that no one can yet give a date for the end of a full-scale war against Russia against Ukraine. He stressed that Putin, who unleashed it, could end the war of conquest as soon as possible. So far, however, the Alliance is not seen as striving for peace in Russia. On the contrary, the aggressor country is only building up forces for a further offensive.
