Putin found justification for using nuclear weapons, but there will be no escalation – ISW

Putin has found a justification for the use of nuclear weapons, but there will be no escalation, – ISW Irina Martsiyash

ISW analyzed Putin's statements regarding nuclear weapons/Collage Channel 24, Getty Images

Kremlin dictator Vladimir Putin equated defeat in Ukraine with the destruction of Russian statehood, which, according to doctrine, allows him to use nuclear weapons. The threat of nuclear escalation is noted to be a key aspect of Russia's ability to manipulate foreign leaders.

This was stated in a June 21 report from the Institute for the Study of War.

ISW on Putin’s acquittal for the use of nuclear weapons

In the report it is said that Putin continues to voice nuclear threats as part of his information campaign. They are aimed at preventing further Western support for Ukraine and undermining the international community's efforts to agree on a strategic vision for victory in Russia's war of conquest against Ukraine.

In particular, it is noted that during a speech to Russian graduating officers on June 21, Putin said that Russia plans to further develop its nuclear triad as a “guarantee of strategic deterrence” and maintaining the balance of power in the world. The Kremlin dictator noted that Russia is also working to increase its typical combat capabilities and defense industrial production.

Also, the Institute for the Study of War noted that during a press conference in Vietnam on June 20 Putin said Russia is considering “lowering the threshold” for the use of nuclear weapons in Russian nuclear doctrine and a possible future strategic defeat of Russian forces on the battlefield in Ukraine would lead to “the end of Russian statehood.”

Putin may have mistakenly equated the defeat in Ukraine with an existential threat to the Russian state in order to cite an “exceptional case” where Russia’s current nuclear doctrine would allow the use of nuclear weapons, the ISW report says .

In addition, ISW analysts also believe that Putin's June 21 statement is a continuation of his recent information operation aimed at sabotaging the West's efforts to develop a common strategic goal – decisive victory over a Russian invasion that the West envisions would be the ultimate goal of the war in Ukraine.

The threat of nuclear escalation is a key aspect of Russia's ability to manipulate foreign leaders, analysts say decision makers and is very unlikely to lead to actual nuclear escalation due to nuclear and conventional deterrence.