Backstage strife within the Russian military-political leadership reaches a bifurcation point in direct proportion to the military failures of the aggressor country in Ukraine. Putin is trying to stay on the throne by running from one to the other of the Kremlin towers. That is why he had to extinguish Prigogine's star even on its rise.
The loud and public demotion of General Surovikin from the post of head of the Russian grouping of troops in Ukraine coincided with a number of events in the Donbass not by chance. The failure of Yevgeny Prigozhin in the Bakhmut direction was successfully used by representatives of the Russian Ministry of Defense to regain their positions in the Kremlin.
At the same time, Putin's cook in Moscow will now be drowned with triple force – so that in the future he will not have any dreams of seizing power.
FSB officers squabble with the army
The consequences of another rearrangement of beds in a Russian brothel cannot be assessed without analyzing how exactly the Syrian butcher Surovikin appeared in the chair of the commander of the occupying forces.
At the beginning of a full-scale invasion, the Kremlin plywood generals assessed the capabilities of their own army and other units as incredibly ready to conquer Ukraine. Representatives of the FSB tower of the Kremlin told Putin that the readiness of our state for resistance is low, and the Ministry of Defense lackeys signed for the strength of all army groups. At the same time, there was almost no tough confrontation between these clans, because since 2014 they have reached a balance and divided all the corruption markets. Moreover, these two departments were at enmity with the Russian Guard in general and with the Kadyrovites in particular, which was clearly reflected in the attempts to attack Kyiv: the FSB actively shared the geolocations of the Chechen Judas mercenaries with the Ukrainian special services, and the generals of the Ministry of Defense sent internal troops to slaughter to break through to the Ukrainian capital with shields and clubs.
The Rosguards were sent to slaughter quite deliberately / Photo by Radio Liberty
It would seem that both the Russian security service and the entire leadership of the mini-murder are interested in destroying their competitors in the person of Zolotov, as well as in seizing Ukraine in order to gain opportunities to steal, already taking into account new markets. However, this did not happen.
The occupying forces received decent resistance and suffered a crushing defeat at the first stage of the great war, which is why a bloody squabble began between them.
Mutual accusations of each other for failures, as well as the need to choose the one responsible for the defeats, led to the fact that between Shoigu and his subordinates, as well as the FSB officers, a big civil strife began.
Its first manifestations can be called the increased whining of Strelkov-Girkin with criticism of Putin and all the plywood generals. They say, if the Fuhrer had not listened to the costumed heroes of the Kolchak fronts, Ukraine would have already been captured, and so we are confidently going to defeat.
Girkin is a representative of the FSB power structure / Photo from Facebook Denis Kazansky
But in the future, the figure of Prigogine appeared on the horizon, whose star quickly flared up and in the near future may just as quickly fade away.
Putin's cook, who is a creature of the FSB officers, was far from the last person in Russia at the beginning of a full-scale war, but his mercenaries were not allowed to seriously participate in hostilities in Ukraine – some contracts were carried out only by individual detachments of the “Wagnerites” elite. When it became clear to everyone that for any success on the fronts, the Russians needed all the available forces in general, Prigozhin’s fighters began to attract more and more, and his political influence grew incredibly quickly.
Prigozhin temporarily became a creature of the FSB in place of Shoigu / Photo from Russian propaganda sites
The behind-the-scenes struggle, denunciations to Putin and criticism of Shoigu and his entourage, together with numerous “gestures of goodwill,” have brought fruit to the FSB officers. The owner of a pocket army began to play a significant role in the war, got access to unlimited human resources, aviation and armored vehicles. In parallel with this, his political ambitions grew. He and his curators dreamed of taking over the leadership of the Ministry of Defense and finally cracking down on their competitors or even moving Putin at the right time. This clan, which seemed about to emerge victorious in a behind-the-scenes war, was joined by Kadyrov, some oligarchs dissatisfied with the Kremlin, as well as small figures like Pushilin.
Apparently, the confidence of the bunker in Shoigu, Gerasimov, Lapin and other overestimated field marshals was finally undermined by the large-scale counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kharkiv region, when the Russians lost a huge territory in a few days, which they had been seizing for many months. In addition, the breakthrough of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in this direction multiplied the wet dreams of the invaders to quickly reach the borders of Donbass to zero.
The liberation of the Kharkiv region put an end to the hopes of the Rashists to seize the northern Donbass / Photo by Defense Express
Sensing the weakness of their opponents, the FSB generals acted in their offices, while Prigozhin and Kadyrov vented their anger at the Defense Ministry minions in the public arena. This is what led to the fact that the beds in the brothel of the attacking side were once again rearranged.
So Surovikin crawled out from under the bombers sprinkled with Syrian sand. A general who has very close ties to the Russian intelligence services. The butcher, remembered for the crushing struggle with the civilian population of Syria, as well as large-scale cuts of money along with the “Wagnerites” during this operation.
Surovikin only helped Ukraine to strengthen itself
The appointment of Surovikin to the post of head of Russian groups was immediately publicized in all Russian media. Especially in those controlled by the FSB and personally to Prigogine. Like, now the very blow to the decision-making centers will happen, Russia will soon win, and all adherents of the USSR will be able to merge in a patriotic kiss to the cries of “Goyda!”
For several months, the FSB officers got the opportunity to command the “parade” of the occupying troops, and Surovikin immediately began to implement a new tactic of war against Ukraine.
Taking advantage of the presence in Russia of a large number of missiles, the first step was to give the order to plunge our country into darkness and strike at the energy system. However, in parallel with this, he had to immediately announce “difficult decisions” in the Kherson region.
After the appointment of Surovikin, the Russians had to flee almost immediately from the right bank of the Kherson region / InformNapalm screenshot
And while the pilots of strategic aviation demonstrated their dexterity in the fight against transformers and power banks, the Russians continued to fail on the fronts. Under pressure from the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the invaders fled from Kherson and got hit in the face in the Luhansk region, barely managing to stop the advance of the Ukrainian defenders thanks to the invasion of the Chmobyks. At the same time, the leader of the Wagnerites, Prigozhin, became the head of virtually the only group that could demonstrate to the Kremlin at least some progress on the front line.
Thanks to barrage detachments, a huge concentration of artillery and endless supplies of “cannon fodder”, the head of the Wagner group for a short time became a symbol of Russia's power. Rays of hope of the invaders for victory against the backdrop of backward plywood generals with their unlucky attempts to bring military achievements to Putin. He undertook guarantees to capture Bakhmut in a very short time, promised to reach the borders of Donbass, and at the same time began to prepare for a possible putsch in Moscow.
Prigozhin paved his political way to the Kremlin thanks to the invasion of prisoners on Bakhmut / Photo “Censor.NET”
However, the FSB agents did not take into account that Putin is terrified of the opposition. Not one that escaped from Russia and tells something about the need to save their country, but a real homegrown one with aviation, artillery and a large number of loyal mercenaries. And the dictator, although he threw his friend Shoigu far away, did not completely get rid of his influence.
The incredibly heroic actions of the Bakhmut garrison, tens of thousands of dead on the Russian side, as well as the feint with the reduction in the supply of ammunition for the “Wagnerites” pretty much clipped Prigozhin's wings. In addition, Surovikin's tactics not only did not bring the desired result to the Russians, but acted exactly the opposite.
If at the beginning of his career “General Armageddon” counteracted the country without modern air defense systems, heavy armored vehicles and with rather sluggish support from Western countries, at the end of his enchanting control, thanks to a demonstrative war with the civilian population, he received an enemy with NASAMS, Iris-T, Crotale, Gepard and warranties for at least two Patriot batteries. Moreover, the horde's missile reserves have also decreased in some places to critical levels.
The frankly terrorist tactics of Surovikin did not break Ukraine, but radically strengthened its weapons / Photo by the State Emergency Service of Ukraine in Kyiv
In addition, it was Surovikin's actions that strengthened the coalition of civilized countries and accelerated the decision to provide the Armed Forces of Ukraine with the latest infantry fighting vehicles and tanks. In a word, none of the Russian generals provided such arguments for our diplomats to strengthen Ukraine.
Prigozhin's army can be finished off until complete collapse
In combination with the failure in almost the only promising direction for the Russians, these facts became decisive for the Kremlin at this stage of the war. That is why Putin decided to imprison the insolent FSB officers and get the naphthalene Shoigu, Lapin and Gerasimov out of his box. And those began to act even before the announcement of new old appointments.
Prigozhin's attempts to salvage the situation and win at least some kind of victory, disrupting the “decisive attack” on Bakhmut by these actions ended with the “Wagnerites” actually entering Soledar. However, instead of sending fresh forces of Chmobiks and paratroopers on the offensive in the neighboring sector of the front, the Ministry of Defense officials decided to try to surround the city. And thus, the prisoners and Prigozhin’s mercenaries found themselves in a trap: on the one hand, they are opposed by the Defense Forces of Ukraine, and on the flanks and behind there are army men who are unlikely to allow their enemies to retreat if something happens.
Therefore, in fact, as of January 12, in Soledar, a planned grinding of the Wagner group units is taking place, which may even end with the termination of its existence.
In addition, the Kremlin began to strengthen other private military companies in order not to concentrate serious power in one hand in the future.
Will the commander Gerasimov bring victory to Putin?
The fact that the Shoigu group has regained sole control of the occupying forces may mean both Russia's transition to a new war tactic, and the preservation of the existing one.
Only one thing can be stated with absolute certainty: under any commander, the occupiers will continue to rely on throwing “cannon fodder” at the Ukrainian Defense Forces. With equipment, without it, with rifles or exclusively with grenades or bayonet-knives, the invaders will try at least to reach the borders of Donbass. Because Russia needs victories, but there are none as such.
Gerasimov and Shoigu are back on horseback. And Prigozhin is under horseback / Photo from Russian propaganda sites
Of course, it is likely that it is during the reign of Gerasimov that Putin's horde will try to attack Kyiv again or even move to Volhynia. Or, in general, it will try to repeat its last year's achievements of February 24 and will use all its capabilities to attack from all sides. The name of the person who will lead the combined grouping of the Russian Armed Forces, mercenaries, National Guardsmen and convicts is not important here at all. Moreover, everyone who will now lead the invasion contingent has already led it before. So, apparently, Putin simply has no alternative to those figures who have once demonstrated their absurd abilities to him.
But how the squabble between the FSB officers and other Kremlin towers will end is a much more interesting question. After all, when it seemed that Shoigu and his entourage were already completely disappearing, it turned out that internal squabbles in the Russian elite were only intensifying. Therefore, it will be very, very fun to watch which party Putin will switch to if new candidates appear that can seize power from him. And even more exciting will be the actions of Pushilin, who almost completely “lay down” under Prigozhin and Kadyrov, and now he has to crawl in front of the new curators of Donbass to save his life.
