Protest, repression, revolution: how the Kremlin can respond to rallies in Bashkiria

Mass protests broke out in Russian Bashkiria over the sentencing of local activist Fail Alsynov. He was sentenced to four years for extremism. Protests will grow in different regions of Russia.

Russian authorities, as always, will try to pretend that nothing is happening. This opinion 24 Channel was voiced by political scientist Valentin Gladkikh.

” Both scenarios will have negative consequences.”

Valentin Gladkikh noted that back in 2023 it was obvious that Russia would have some protests. After all, the local elites have a desire to gain autonomy, which in the future could develop into sovereignty.

So far the Kremlin has not responded to the protests in Bashkiria. However, the Russian authorities cannot agree to fulfill the protesters’ conditions. After all, this will mean the weakness of the Putin regime. In addition, subsequently the goals of the protesters may acquire political significance.

They cannot fulfill the demands of the protest, because in their system of coordinates this means recognizing weakness. That is, to give carte blanche so that similar ones increasingly appear and are used to achieve other goals,” he said.

Repressions against protesters will not suppress the protests. A violent crackdown will force activists to act more decisively. Thus, a powerful revolution will occur, which will be extremely difficult for the Kremlin to cope with.

Therefore, Russian propaganda will follow the usual path. The authorities will continue to pretend that nothing is happening. Instead, the media will convince Russians of the “greatness” of their state.

Russian authorities are unlikely to be able to cope with the protests that will subsequently arise in other regions. And although the Kremlin still has a certain “reserve of power”, internal problems are only growing. this will not go away by itself. It is necessary either to impose the will of the court and those security agencies that are behind this decision. That is, to “crush” these protests. Or to satisfy the demands of the protesters. Both scenarios will have negative consequences,” the political scientist explained.

Protests in Bashkiria: the main thing

• Protest action took place in the city of Baymak in the Republic of Bashkortostan on January 15. The protesters came out in defense of local activist Fail Alsynov, who is accused of allegedly “inciting ethnic hatred.”
• The protests lasted until January 17, when the final court hearing began. An activist accused of “extremism” was sentenced to 4 years in prison. Clashes began between security forces and participants. The police and the National Guard began to block the roads, and the Internet was cut off in the city.
• The security forces beat the protesters with batons and used tear gas. Russian public pages began publishing information about the first victims. It is also known that about two dozen people have been detained.
• The protesters are already calling on their fellow countrymen to return to Bashkiria from the war in Ukraine. Note that according to one version, activist Alsinov spoke out against partial mobilization and called on his fellow countrymen not to go to war in Ukraine.