The day before, it became known that Russia had transferred two MiG-31K fighters to Belarus, which can carry high-speed Kinzhal missiles.
And although the distance for Kinzhal missiles from Belarus is extremely short, the National Security and Defense Council also points to the threat of possible provocations, to which MiG-31K missile carriers could be involved.
At present, there are at least two MiG-31K aircraft known to be on the territory of Belarus. However, it is unknown whether the corresponding Kinzhal missiles will be delivered to them separately.
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What is the significance of such transfers of aviation equipment from Russia to Belarus, what could this mean for the war, and will the Kremlin convince the regime of Alexander Lukashenko to join the hostilities — ICTV Facts looked into this with a veteran of the Russian-Ukrainian war, reserve major of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Alexey Getman.
Why Russia transferred the MiG-31K to Belarus
According to the military man, the Kremlin wants to create additional pressure on both official Kyiv and Ukraine's Western partners.
— Kinzhal can be launched from Belarus to Kyiv, then it will arrive much faster, because it covers about 3 km per second. Therefore, it is possible to calculate how many seconds it will take to fly from the border of Belarus to Kyiv. It is tens of seconds. You may not have time to react, — he says.
At the same time, it is still unclear why Moscow chose this method with the transfer of aircraft, since these MiG-31Ks can take off from other Russian cities and then, flying into the airspace of Belarus, launch Kinzhals from there.
— It is not necessary to have a plane in Belarus for this. I think it is to do it publicly, because everyone can calculate the speed of the Kinzhal. Therefore, this is most likely pressure, — the military believes.
Note that the last time MiG-31K aircraft were reported on the territory of Belarus was in November 2022. At that time, the UK Ministry of Defense intelligence wrote precisely that the Kremlin wanted to create pressure on Western countries in this way.
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A separate option, Alexey Getman also highlights that Russia could transfer its MiG-31Ks to Belarus in order to service or repair them on Belarusian territory, or simply store them.
Thus, Russian MiG-31K fighters on Belarusian territory will be protected from Ukrainian strikes.
— There is military equipment, not only Russian, on the territory of Belarus. And they can do it, since they are in the CSTO. And officially, so to speak, without violating any international rules. But if there is Russian equipment in Belarus, and it does not fire at us from the territory of Belarus, then we do not have the legal right to attack these objects. Therefore, yes, this can also be considered, in particular, as protection from our attacks, — he says.
Massive shelling of Ukraine is possible
A reserve major of the Armed Forces of Ukraine notes that, on the other hand, these maneuvers may be part of the preparation for a massive shelling of Ukraine, which the Russian Federation is preparing. According to Alexey Getman, this shelling may take place soon, since the last massive missile and drone strike on Ukraine was at the end of August. Consequently, the Russian army was able to accumulate missiles and drones to carry out new strikes.
— Now more than a month and a half have passed. During this time, they had the opportunity to produce from 150 to 200 new missiles. Therefore, the strike could be very massive. It could be at least 200 missiles plus an unknown number of Shaheeds. And we are talking about various missiles, both cruise and ballistic, — the expert explains.
Belarus's involvement in the war
Alexey Getman notes that air targets have repeatedly flown into Ukraine from the territory of Belarus, however, there is no talk yet of the direct involvement of the Lukashenko regime in the war against Ukraine.
— Belarus can be considered in a state of war when their troops try to cross our border, — he says.
Another option for how Belarus can be drawn into the war, the reserve major of the Armed Forces of Ukraine says, is the use of ground installations from the territory of Belarus to strike Ukraine.
— Then all military and military-related facilities on the territory of Belarus immediately become our legitimate target. And we will strike back. And they know it very well. That is why Putin wants to drag in North Korea and drag in Belarus… But Lukashenko also understands perfectly well that retaliatory strikes will be immediate. And he has no chance to defend himself, — says Getman.
Recall that earlier the Minister of Defense of South Korea stated that the DPRK would probably send some of its regular troops to Ukraine in support of Russia. ICTV Facts analyzed why such statements were made now and how dictatorships want to intimidate Western leaders.
