According to forecasts, Ukraine will face a demographic crisis in the future. Read the expert's commentary on the population of Ukraine in 2024 and in the future, as well as on methods for solving the demographic crisis — current data on Facts ICTV.
Population of Ukraine 2024: data according to expert forecasts
Expert in the field of Education of the Ukrainian Institute of the Future UIF Nikolay Skiba said that the exact number of the population as of now cannot be said.
There are official figures. For example, the Ministry of Social Policy claims that there were 42 million people in Ukraine at the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022, although before that the figure could have been 40 million. It also depends on whether temporarily occupied territories are included or not.
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The population of Ukraine in 2024 is 31 million, this includes the occupied territories. If we take into account pendulum migration, that is, exit-entry, then we have a ratio in favor of exit.
Why? Because, according to the migration service, more people are leaving according to exit-entry data. And this is due to a number of reasons — for treatment, in connection with family reunification, and so on. Thus, we can cautiously talk about the population of Ukraine being about 30 million, or in the range from 29 to 30.5. Again, these are very rough numbers, — Nikolay Skiba commented.
You can find out how many people there are in Ukraine in 2024 through mobile operators. You can also roughly find out from the data of military-civil administrations. Each of them began to do a so-called audit and count how many people they had in their subordinate territories. Displaced persons are also registered and can also be recorded.
But at the moment there is no single acceptable method for counting the population. In the world there is such a method as population census, but during the war in Ukraine it is impossible. All other methods currently in use provide only an approximate idea of the population size in Ukraine. To say exactly how many people are in Ukraine now. impossible.
But it's not even about the numbers. In any case, where an annual population census is conducted, there is still a natural movement of people, mortality, and birth rates, so it is not possible to say an exact figure. Here the question is different — the question is dynamics and the question is what this figure means for us. What does a population of 30 million? mean for us, — noted Nikolay Skiba.
In the future, there is a forecast for an even greater reduction in the population of Ukraine. We have been experiencing negative growth (0.7) for a long time and the population is declining. Therefore, to understand the problem, you need to take the area, the scale of the country, the entire infrastructure, and this is all engineering networks, the road network (railway, borders). We take the area taking into account the fact that it requires special services: the State Emergency Service, the police, and then it becomes clear that this requires people, workers.
Each community should have, respectively, electricians, engineers, and specialists involved in the road network. That is, these are mandatory specialties, not to mention production and business. There must be a certain number of people there, and they are taken from some database. There the required number of people should be enough to fill the jobs. Therefore, given the number of people who exist now, we can say that it is critical not only for the labor market.
The Ministry of Social Policy in the draft demographic strategy states that our ratio is 1 to 1, that is, for one person who needs care (pensioners, children), for whom additional expenses are incurred (for preschool education or pension expenses), there is one active person, that is, one who works.
But, most likely, we have an even more vulnerable ratio — 1 to 2, where:
- 1 — economically active person;
- 2 — people who need care.
If we look at the demographic bush (demophysical pyramid), we see that we have a category that should be inside, reliable and wide, it has been gnawed out in places. And not only that, it is chipped precisely in those places where people expect to enter the labor market — These are 15-18 year old people, there are very few of them. This means that after a while, when they grow up and have to replace people in the labor market, we will have another failure, — commented by the expert.
How to increase the population in Ukraine in 2024 and beyond
All this leads to the conclusion that we need migration replacement, that is, we cannot hope for natural population growth even if there is peace in the country or a guarantee of security. All the same, these conditions will not be enough for us to have the required number of people using the birth control method. Even if we imagine that after our victory there will be a baby boom, these people still must grow up, learn, that is, some more time must pass for this.
But the question is who will work until this moment? And here we come to the conclusion that we need demographic (migration) replacement, and we are not talking about the return of those who left. This is a method of attracting people from other countries. This issue is sometimes raised, but in general it is not on the radar of managers, those who have decision-making authority. This is quite an alarming signal, so we need to think about contacts with potential donor countries, — noted Nikolay Skiba.
Demographic (migration) replacement is necessary for a balanced ratio in the labor market — those who are economically active and those who need care. That is, to replenish the population in Ukraine, it is necessary for educated, economically active, able-bodied people to come. It is also important that they accept Ukrainian culture.
And this also requires cultural policy within the country. That is, we say that we are a country of diversity, we are a country in which people of different ethnic origins, even different skin colors, make careers and businesses. On the other hand, we give such a message to the outside world. That is — we are a country of opportunities for those people who want to develop and learn new things, — noted by the expert.
People from countries where there are no such opportunities, where there are no developed technologies, can come to Ukraine and get this. Migration is also possible due to climate change, that is, from those countries that, for some reason, are unsuitable for living. Then we should communicate and offer offers that may interest them.
It is also important that these people integrate into Ukrainian society at the community level and do not allow the creation of certain “bubbles”, in which people will have radical views, will not accept patterns of behavior, accepted in Ukrainian society. Therefore, there must be both labor and cultural integration policies.
For example, in Germany, entry into a profession occurs through vocational training, that is, learning a language and getting to know society. There is a soft adaptation to society through training and work. Today we must also look at the professional technology sector from exactly this angle. We must offer professions that people cannot obtain in other countries, and obtaining them in Ukraine has competitive advantages. For example, this is a UAV operator, — Nikolay Skiba commented.
We need to further expand the range of such professions and advertise the vocational education sector. And now we should think about attracting people to increase the number of people in Ukraine in 2024 and beyond.
Of course, this could be done on a larger scale in a different security situation, but we need to prepare now, since it will be more difficult to do this later.
