Many events took place in Ukraine and the world this week. Thus, the most discussed of them was the visit of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban to Kyiv, and then immediately to Moscow.
Also, elections took place in the UK, and the wave of consequences of the debates between Joe Biden and Donald Trump is only gaining momentum. Thus, members of the US Democratic Party began a discussion about replacing Biden's candidacy in the presidential race due to his unfavorable physical appearance at the debate.
Changes also occurred at the front, the Defense Forces withdrew from the Kanal microdistrict in Chasovoy Yar, Donetsk region.
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What do these and other events of the week mean for Ukraine and the world – ICTV Facts asked political scientist Vladimir Fesenko and a military expert, former company commander in the Aidar battalion Evgeniy Dikiy.
- Orban’s visit to Kyiv and Moscow.
- Shelling of Ukrainian cities
- Strikes on Crimea and the Russian Federation
- Died on a visit to the USA
- Aid from the USA, Germany and the 5th tranche from the IMF
- Trump-Biden debate
- UK elections and Sunak's resignation
- Elections in France
- The situation at the front: Toretsk, Kharkov region and Chasov Yar
Orban’s visit to Kyiv and Moscow
On the morning of July 2, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban arrived in Kyiv on an unannounced visit. This is his first trip to Ukraine since the start of Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine.
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During a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, they agreed to work on an agreement that would resolve bilateral issues.
As Orban noted, the negotiations brought the two countries closer to the possible signing of a new agreement. In addition, he said that Budapest is ready to support the modernization of the Ukrainian economy, and also intends to help Kyiv during its presidency of the EU Council.
For his part, the head of our state, Vladimir Zelensky, said that he and Orban discussed the most fundamental issues: trade, cross-border cooperation, infrastructure, energy issues. In addition, Orban supported the project of opening a Ukrainian school in Hungary.
And on Friday, July 5, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban arrived on a visit to Moscow – where he met with Kremlin dictator Vladimir Putin . The representative of the Hungarian head of government, Bertalan Havasi, called his trip “an ongoing peacekeeping mission”.
The EU has already responded to Orban’s arrival in Russia, noting that this is happening exclusively within the framework of bilateral relations between Hungary and the Russian Federation, and not the presidency of the EU Council. It is noted that Prime Minister Orban did not receive a single mandate from the EU Council to visit Moscow.
The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, commenting on Orban’s visit to Moscow, emphasized that appeasement will not stop Putin.
Political scientist Vladimir Fesenko noted in a commentary to ICTV Facts that Orban pursued two goals with his visits. First, he wanted to demonstrate his willingness to become another mediator in future peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.
– I think that in these future negotiations Orban wants to represent the interests of Donald Trump. Although he has not yet won the presidential election and the peace negotiations that he can initiate are still far away, Orban is already starting a game on this topic.
All of these initiatives of his are definitely not for Russian President Vladimir Putin, they are for Trump, because the style of the Kremlin dictator is to negotiate using military tools, but Orban offers something else – first a truce, and then negotiations. This is more likely for Trump, since he wants something like this model, — the expert emphasizes.
Secondly, Orbán wanted to start Hungary’s EU presidency very loudly. And the first step was quite unexpected – a demonstration of constructiveness, readiness to declare a truce in the political sense in its relations with Ukraine, but then a completely different shocking step – a trip to Moscow, breaking the informal taboo for European politicians not to visit Moscow and not to enter into direct negotiations with Putin .
– For Orban, it’s the volume that’s important. It was a kind of PR. I think that we will see similar actions from Orban during his presidency of the EU, — noted the political scientist.
According to Fesenko, Orban’s visit to Kyiv and Moscow does not mean that there will soon be peace negotiations, on the contrary, what he heard from Putin , indicates that no such actions should be expected yet.
– Putin has strengthened the ultimatum of his conditions and this indicates that there will be no peace negotiations in the near future, says the political scientist.
Shelling of Ukrainian cities
Russia has been actively shelling Ukrainian cities this week.
June 29 Russia launched a missile strike on Volnyansk Zaporozhye region, and the impact killed seven people, three of them children. Another 12 people wounded due to the shelling are in hospitals.
On July 2, the Russian army attacked the city of Nikopol in the Dnepropetrovsk region, striking with artillery and drones.
Two women were killed as a result of the shelling. Nine more people received injuries of varying severity. Two victims are children aged 9 and 17.
The Russian Federation attacked and Kharkov within a week. Thus, on June 30, Russia attacked the city with a controlled aerial bomb, resulting in a hit near the premises of the Novaya Poshta in the Slobodsky district. A fire broke out and trucks were damaged.
Russia has shelled more than once Kherson. Thus, as a result of the attack by the occupying country on July 2, three people were injured. Enemy shells destroyed high-rise buildings: windows and doors were knocked out, facades were damaged. Many trees were also broken.
The occupants attacked Kharkov with a FAB-500 with UMPC from the village of Nizhny Olshanets, Belgorod region of Russia, the regional prosecutor’s office claims.
As a result of the shelling of Kharkov, a 38-year-old post office worker was killed and 10 more people were injured, including an eight-month-old baby.
On July 2, the Russian army attacked a Ukrainian city with guided bombs. As a result, two children, who were not far from the epicenter of the arrival, received shell shock. A woman was also injured.
However, perhaps the person who suffered the most this week as a result of the Russian attack was Dnepr. An attack on the city by missiles and drones killed eight civilians and injured 55 people.
Photo: Sergiy Lisak
Thus, on July 5 in the Kyiv region air defense forces shot down Shaheds all night long — all targets were shot down.
No hits were recorded on residential or critical infrastructure facilities, and there were no casualties.
At the same time, as a result of falling debris from downed drones, six private houses and a car were damaged in the Makariv community. Windows were knocked out in houses, fences were damaged.
In total, according to President Volodymyr Zelensky, this week alone Russia used more than 600 guided air bombs, more than 60 Shaheeds and about 40 missiles of various types.
As military expert, former company commander in the Aidar battalion Yevgeny Dikyi noted in a commentary to ICTV Fakty, this situation with shelling will continue until Ukraine has F-16 fighters.
— The threat of massive shelling remains, since the Russian Federation still has the same number of aircraft as it had, and although missiles are being consumed, they are also being produced. And usually there are long pauses – just before big attacks. The Russian Federation produces hundreds of missiles per month, not thousands, because for the Russian Federation to simultaneously launch 100 missiles, the aggressor country needs three weeks or a month to accumulate them. So, if a month has passed since a massive attack, then at any moment it can happen again, — he notes.
Strikes on Crimea and the Russian Federation
July 1 at an ammunition depot of the Russian military in occupied Crimea on July 1. Commander of the Air Force of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Nikolai Oleshchuk noted that Ukrainian aircraft continue to successfully carry out combat missions, carry out missile and bomb attacks on the positions of the Russian army, and also liquidate important military installations deep in the rear of the invaders.
Also on July 1 drones attacked the Oskol Electrometallurgical Plant in the Belgorod Region of the Russian Federation, as a result of which it was disabled.
– This is one of the key enterprises of the Russian military-industrial complex, the main customers of which are military production – vehicles, armored vehicles and all those who use metal. This means a complication and disruption in the implementation of defense orders and, accordingly, supply chains,” said GUR representative Andrey Yusov.
On the night of July 3, sea drums drones attacked Novorossiysk in the Krasnodar region of the Russian Federation. Subsequently, local public pages reported a fire in the mountains above the city. They also published a video of the consequences of the arrivals.
On the morning of July 4th one of the attack drones hit the Tambov powder plant in the city of Kotovsk, Tambov region of the Russian Federation.
On July 5, Russian authorities announced a drone attack on Primorsko-Akhtarsk in the Krasnodar Territory, from where Russia usually launches attack UAVs into Ukraine, as well as on Rostov.
In the occupied Crimea, in the village of Vinogradnoye, Alushta district, late in the evening of July 6 after a powerful explosion, a fire occurred at a gas distribution center. Because of this, 14 settlements were left without gas. Acting “Minister of Fuel and Energy” annexed Crimea, Vladimir Voronkin noted that they will repair the gas pipeline from seven to 10 days.
July 7 An ammunition depot near Voronezh was attacked by SBU drones. After the UAV attack on the night of July 7, a fire started there, followed by the detonation of ammunition.
Died on a visit to the USA
As part of his working visit to the United States, Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov met with Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin. The parties discussed strengthening the partnership.
Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh emphasized at the briefing that the visit underscores the ongoing US commitment to supporting Ukraine's sovereignty and security.
In his evening address, Zelensky noted that he had instructed Umerov to obtain specific dates during the trip: when the additional Patriot systems, about which Ukraine has an agreement with its partners, will be delivered.
Against the background of this international visit, Zelensky’s statement was made about the insufficient staffing of 14 brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to go on a counter-offensive.
– This visit is not only about this announcement, but also about working to speed up US military assistance. In addition, we need to agree with the Americans exactly what kind of help we need, so that they do not give what they do not need, but do it according to our urgent needs. One priority is obvious – air defense, Patriot and Patriot missiles. We need ammunition, weapons, ammunition, the further development of the military situation will depend on this.
But Umerov, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmitry Kuleba, and the head of the OP Andrey Ermak are working on preparing for the NATO summit. We are not talking about inviting Ukraine to NATO, but we are talking about the adoption of specific programs that will mean the actual integration of Ukraine into NATO, notes political scientist Vladimir Fesenko in a comment to Facts ICTV .
That is, these visits are a kind of preparation of the ground for the NATO summit, which will take place next week.
Aid from the USA, Germany and the 5th tranche from the IMF
On July 2 it became known that The United States will announce a $2.3 billion aid package.
The new package will include “air defense missiles, anti-tank weapons and other critical ammunition from the US stockpile”.
Ukraine will receive a package under the authority of the President of America, according to which weapons, ammunition and equipment are provided from existing US stocks to meet the urgent needs of Ukraine.
July 3, Ukraine received the fifth tranche from the IMF in the amount of $2.2 billion. This is part of the funds provided for by the four-year Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program in the amount of $16 billion.
As Prime Minister of Ukraine Denis Shmygal noted, the transferred amount will help the government of Ukraine in financing critical budget expenses, social benefits, salaries of doctors and teachers.
On July 5, the third Patriot air defense system from Germany arrived in Ukraine.
“It will strengthen the protection of the country’s population and infrastructure from aircraft, drones and missiles. The Ukrainian crew of the system has successfully completed appropriate training in Germany in recent months,” wrote German Ambassador to Ukraine Martin Jäger on Twitter (X).
Trump-Biden debate
Although the debate between US Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump and US Democratic Party Joe Biden took place on June 27, interest in them has not subsided throughout the week. Thus, more than one survey has already been conducted among Americans regarding how their opinion has changed after the event and who they think they will vote for. And, despite the unsuccessful debate, Biden is as close as possible to Trump in key states, the margin between the presidential candidates is only 2% in favor of the Republican.
In addition, there was a wave about whether Biden should run at all. According to Bloomberg journalists, members of the US Democratic Party are seriously considering signing a collective letter to President Joe Biden to withdraw his candidacy from the election.
– Biden’s condition was an unpleasant surprise for the Democrats; this affected the situation within the party. Currently, two words clearly define the reaction of this political force – shock and panic. They did not expect Biden to look so weak, particularly not in terms of discussions, but in physical condition. This caused enormous concern and sparked a debate within the Democratic Party that continues to this day over whether Bideno should withdraw from the presidential election and the Democrats choose a younger candidate, — political scientist Vladimir Fesenko told Facts ICTV in a commentary.
He notes that there was no discussion about changing the candidate before the debate, but now there are corresponding calls from publications close to the Democratic Party, in particular, the New York Post and The Washington Post
According to the expert, these debates themselves did not have much of an impact on the ratings, as polls showed immediately after them, and no big sensations occurred, in particular, in terms of statements, topics, etc.
At the same time, Biden himself does not intend to withdraw his candidacy from the presidential race, noting that only God himself can convince him to do so.
— However, the situation looks stalemate, since Biden and his family do not want him to withdraw his candidacy from the race, and the Democratic Party itself does not have a consensus on this issue. And this is the main problem for the coming weeks, maximum until the Democratic Party Convention in the United States, the dilemma of whether or not to replace Biden. And if you do this — then to whom, although the answer to this question is more or less clear. Most likely, if the appropriate decision is made, Biden will be replaced by Kamala Harris, — says Vladimir Fesenko.
He notes that nothing like this has happened in American politics or the US Democratic Party for over 50 years.
For Ukraine, another presidential candidate from the Democratic Party, according to Fesenko, will not mean a change in the position of the White House administration and the policy that is being pursued towards our country.
— I do not expect any drastic changes from replacing the candidate, although, of course, Biden is more involved in the Ukrainian issue, Kamala Harris is less, but nevertheless she has met with President Vladimir Zelensky several times and participated in the Peace Summit.
However, if a replacement does occur, it will greatly change the drama of the campaign, and not only for the Democratic Party, but also for the Republican Party, since the entire election race is focused on the confrontation between Biden and Trump, and if there is another younger candidate who looks different, but represents the same political line and is trying to consolidate everyone who doesn’t want Trump, then it will have to be changed,” the expert notes.
UK elections and Sunak's resignation
There were elections in the UK this week. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak admitted that the Conservatives lost the snap parliamentary elections held on July 4.
The consequence of this event was Sunak's resignation from his position.
After this, Labor leader Sir Keir Starmer and his wife arrived at Buckingham Palace for an audience with the king.
King Charles III formally invited him to form a government and become prime minister. Then he left the palace. Keir Starmer became the 58th Prime Minister of Great Britain.
According to political scientist Igor Reiterovich, Starmer supports Ukraine, he even visited Kyiv and met with President Vladimir Zelensky. The only thing is that Labor will pay more attention to domestic politics. Therefore, the 3 billion pounds that Britain has pledged to allocate to Ukraine annually may be under threat, the expert believes.
The new British Prime Minister himself Keir Starmer noted that a change in the British government will not affect support for Ukraine.
– Ukraine’s struggle against Russian aggression is important for all of us. UK support remains steadfast. “I look forward to meeting President Vladimir Zelensky,” Keir Starmer wrote on the X network.
Elections in France
On June 30, the first round of early parliamentary elections was held in France. According to the voting results, the far-right conservative party National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen, confidently won.
After the first round of parliamentary elections, large-scale protests broke out in Paris against the victory of Marine Le Pen's party. Tens of thousands of dissatisfied people took to the streets of the city.
Despite the fact that the second round of elections, scheduled for July 7, could radically change the situation, Marine Le Pen burst out with statements about reducing support for Ukraine if she wins. In particular, she noted that she would seek the cancellation of permission for Ukraine to attack Russian territory with long-range weapons, which were provided by France. Marine Le Pen will also oppose the possible sending of troops to Ukraine, as previously stated by President Emmanuel Macron.
– If Macron wants to send troops to Ukraine, and the Prime Minister is against it, then there will be no troops in Ukraine. The prime minister has the final say, she says.
According to French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, if far-right forces win the parliamentary elections in France, arms assistance to Ukraine from Paris may be significantly reduced.
Situation at the front: Toretsk, Kharkov region and Chasov Yar
4 July it became known that the Defense Forces had withdrawn from the Kanal microdistrict in Chasovoy Yar, Donetsk region. As noted by the speaker of the operational-strategic group of troops Khortitsa Nazar Voloshin, the maintenance of the positions there became impractical due to significant destruction, there was a great threat to the lives of Ukrainian servicemen.
According to a military expert, former company commander in the Aidar battalion Evgeniy Dikiy, no key events occurred in Chasovoy Yar this week, and the retreat beyond the Canal — absolutely expected.
— The area itself, which is called the Canal, in fact no longer exists, it was demolished by Russian bombing. There was no place to hold a defense within this area. The next line of defense now runs along the Canal itself and it is quite convenient and the Russians do not know how to deal with it.
If even one eastern region was held for more than a month from the moment the invaders entered there, then the entire Chasov Yar as a whole can hold out for a very long time, longer than the enemy has resources, — he said in an exclusive comment to Facts ICTV.
According to him, the threat from the Russian Federation is in terms of a roundabout maneuver, and not frontal attacks, so we should take especially seriously what is happening in the Toretsk direction.
– “Their offensive in the Toretsky direction is a potential threat to bypass Chasovoy Yar,” he notes.
And if Chasov Yar falls, the expert says, then four large cities that are still front-line – Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, Konstantinovka and Druzhkovka – will be completely shelled, and Ukraine will have to evacuate the population from there. In addition, there will be a task to more closely protect these settlements.
As Evgeniy Dikiy notes, heavy fighting is taking place in the Toretsky direction, the enemy is advancing with superiority in manpower. In addition, the enemy also has an advantage in the air — The Russian Federation equates our strengthening with KABs and FABs. However, even in this situation the front bends rather slowly, and the enemy suffers significant losses.
As for other directions, according to Evgeniy Dikiy, fighting is taking place along the entire front, and the main offensive of the Russians continues in Donetsk region.
– In the Zaporozhye region and a significant part of the Slobozhanshchina, positional battles are mainly taking place. This does not mean that it is easy there, it means that there is no big progress on either side,” he notes.
In Kharkiv region, precisely in that hot area that appeared in May after the Russian offensive, on the new 70 km, there is a dynamic favorable for Ukrainian forces . Our defenders have the initiative there, they have switched to counter-offensive actions and are trying to push the enemy out of there.
— But the enemy’s task for now is not to attack, but to hold positions, — adds Wild.
However, according to him, this does not mean that it is easy there, since fierce battles continue with the same intensity as in Clock Yar.
