We consider the indicator of the average number of ships arriving per day to three ports in the Odessa region as part of the “grain initiative” as one of the indicators of the level of military risks in the Black Sea region.
Russia is annoyed by the successful export of Ukrainian grain
In September 2022, it averaged 5.9 vessels per day, in October – 5.1, in November – 3.3, and in December – 3.2. That is, in November 2022, there was an almost 2-fold reduction in the number of vessels that received permission from the joint coordination center in Istanbul to operate flights in the direction of Ukrainian ports.
Decrease from 5 – 6 to 3 ships daily sent by the “grain corridor” from the Bosphorus Strait is a conscious policy of Russia, which cannot like the successful export of Ukrainian grain and the corresponding additional revenues of the Ukrainian budget directed to finance the war against Russia.
< p>It should be noted that Russia cannot but be annoyed by the fact that neither the rocket attacks on Odessa and the Odessa region, nor even the defeat of the energy infrastructure of the region as a result of these attacks and the massive power outages as a result of this, have a catastrophic effect on the functioning of the “grain corridor”.
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How many ships passed through the “grain corridor”
What will happen to the grain initiative in the event of a new coming
< p> However, the blocking of the “grain corridor” remains an indispensable component of Putin's plan for a new stage of the war. That is, in the event of a new Russian offensive, which everyone expects in the near future, the “grain corridor” can be blocked with a high probability.
The only factor that can delay the disruption of Ukrainian maritime grain exports in the coming weeks and months is Russia's fear drastically spoil relations with the President of Turkey. Indeed, for Recep Erdogan, this is a successful global leadership project.
Consequently, Ukraine and the civilized world must be ready for such a scenario.
