One Step Away from Eco-Disaster: Instead of a Ship with Grain, Russia Could Have Attacked a Tanker in the Black Sea

One step away from an environmental disaster: instead of a ship with grain, Russia could have attacked a tanker in the Black Sea Diana Kvasnevskaya

Russia could have attacked a tanker/Collage by Channel 24 (photo by Defense Express and the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry)

Russia attacked a ship with wheat under the flag of Saint Kitts and Nevis. At the time, there were a total of eight tankers in the area of ​​the damaged ship Aya.

Volodymyr Zelensky said that the enemy attacked the grain ship immediately after it had already left Ukrainian territorial waters. Analysts have recreated the chronology of events on the evening of September 11, when the Russians attacked the ship.

The occupiers could have caused an environmental disaster

A total of eight tankers (marked in red), the destruction of any of which would have led to a large-scale oil spill into the Black Sea near the coast of Romania and Ukraine and an environmental disaster. It should be taken into account that anti-ship missiles are characterized by independent redirection to a large target, the experts said.

They showed, using the example of maritime traffic as of the time of publication, what a standard situation at sea looks like in the area where the Aya ship was hit.

Russia attacked a ship with grain in the Black Sea/photo

What was happening in the Black Sea at the time of the attack

Analysts were able to fully reconstruct the picture of the events that took place on the evening of September 11.

The Mykolaiv Vanek Telegram channel reported that the enemy had struck with an Kh-22 missile. The Ukrainian Navy later also stated that Russia had attacked the vessel with cruise missiles, likely Kh-22s, from Tu-22 aircraft.

Specialized air threat monitoring channels reported that:

• On September 11, at approximately 23:05, Russian Tu-22M3s were spotted heading west toward launch sites near temporarily occupied Crimea;
• launched missiles in the direction of Zmeiny Island or the south of Odessa Oblast;
• a few minutes later, they turned back course.

The Ukrainian Air Force wrote that Russia damaged the vessel at 23:03 on September 11. The ship was outside the Ukrainian sea corridor and territorial waters of Ukraine.

It is possible to reconstruct its route and see that on September 11 at 23:19 this vessel, which was 50 kilometers from the Romanian coast, abruptly changed course. This quite clearly coincides with the time and known course of the launch of the Kh-22 missile by the Russian Tu-22M3, the analysts said.

How a ship changed its route in the Black Sea

Experts explained how the Kh-22 missile is launched from the Tu-22M3. After all, the Kh-22 is primarily an anti-ship missile, and not a means of terrorist attacks on Ukrainian cities. Therefore, to launch the Kh-22:

• the Tu-22M3 weapons operator must use its own radar to see the target, i.e. the ship,
• wait until the Kh-22 missile's active radar homing head locks on to it,
• only then launch.

That is, even if a Russian pilot allegedly chooses a bulk carrier to attack a civilian vessel, there is no guarantee that the Kh-22 will not be diverted to a larger tanker. At the same time, the question of whether the operator of the Russian Tu-22M3 weapons can conduct a real selection of targets or the launch was simply at any vessel is open, the experts explained.

The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry stated that Ukrainian food supplies to African countries and the Middle East are critical. The ministry added that they expect a reaction from the world, because wheat and food security should never be a target for missiles.