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The Kremlin's plans are going to hell again. It is reported that Vladimir Putin will not address the Federation Council on September 30.
The Kremlin dictator was supposed to announce the results of “referendums” and annex Ukrainian territories. However, the head of the federation council, Valentina Matviyenko, said that the next meeting would take place as planned on October 4. This indicates that Russia is in a panic. Yaroslav Bozhko, head of the Center for Political Studies “Doctrine”, said this to channel 24.
An important detail
“When it became known that puti seemed to be planning to make an appeal to the Federation Council on September 30, there was information:” The report informed RIA news. “Even in the Russian government media, this was presented as some kind of insight. Although, excuse me, the directly key state media suddenly began refer to insiders,” Bozhko noted.
This was done in order to play this story back in case something happened – in order to cancel not the official notice of an extraordinary meeting, but insider information.
< p class="bloquote cke-markup">It is clearly visible that the Russian side is panicking and wants to be agreed with it, talked about, it wants concessions. That the Russian side is not so strong as to stick to its position to the end,” Bozhko emphasized.
Real means matter
Bozhko emphasized that none of the politicians, and especially those like Putin, are taken into account by any public opinion. “All this is not an argument, this all is not a marker of the will. Not a single referendum, even if it was legal and real, would never affect anyone. Because in a war, only the balance of power matters,” he assures Bozhko.
We are talking about means that can be used to put pressure on each other. Symbolic means play no role here.
Only real means of fire destruction, personnel, range of destruction, amount of ammunition. It matters. Given these parameters, the strategy of warfare is chosen,” he stressed.
What scenarios is Russia considering
- < strong>Use of nuclear weapons
According to Bozhko, Russia can annex Ukrainian territories – no one recognizes this – neither Ukraine nor the West , nor China, at the same time, Russia continues to threaten the use of nuclear weapons and may use them.
“And what will happen next, we don’t know, because then all doctrines fly into the trash. Then no one will react according to the template. The reaction will be born in the air according to current scenarios,” Bozhko said. This will be the concern not so much of Kyiv as of the West.
Ukraine on Ukraine, but the principles of nuclear non-proliferation are one of the national interests of the United States in foreign policy, he stressed.
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- Go to who mode
So, Russia votes for the annexation of Ukrainian territories, annexes them and transfers “its” to the regime of a counter-terrorist operation – an internal military operation to clean up some incomprehensible formations. In this case, the Russians will be told that the war is over, there is “who”, as in the Caucasus in the 2010s against the incomprehensible Ukrainian underground.
“And the front does not seem to exist, just a transition to the content of the invaders and an attempt to control these territories more tightly in exchange for reducing the degree of tension in Russian society,” Bozhko explained.
The reaction of the West
“However, the third factor interferes here – we don't know what the West's reaction will be to all these “manses” of Russia with nuclear threats and “referendums,” emphasizes the head of the Doctrine Center for Political Studies .
In all likelihood, he adds, the United States, in a private conversation with the Russian leadership, will draw a clear red line on the use of nuclear weapons and warn of options. For example, it can be a lethal strike with conventional weapons – Tomahawk missiles from aircraft carriers. “Believe me, it will also be a problem for the Russian leadership to react to this,” Bozhko said. As a result, Russia will be forced to accept the format of the war that exists.
War by conventional means is long, stagnant, unprofitable for Russia. Not exactly because Russia is losing combat units, but because it is losing economic efforts, funds, the remaining, stagnant enterprises are leaving it, Russia is rolling back and destroying everything that has been accumulated for decades, – explained the head of the Doctrine Center for Political Studies.< /p>
This is very threatening for an aggressor state. That is why Russia is interested in getting out of the war quickly on its own terms. “That's why she wants it. But no one will let her go out quickly,” summed up Yaroslav Bozhko.
