Not everyone will like the decision: some facts about the “grain negotiations”/twitter.com/tcsavunma
A few facts about the Istanbul agreements. First, Russia controls the Black Sea off our shores, and not vice versa.
Yes, the Muscovites normally got pinduli and will get more, but they are capable of sinking grain transporters and will be able to block civilian shipping for a long time to come .
- No specific agreements yet.
- Any agreements that Russia agrees to sign will not be good enough for us by definition. This unpleasant fact depends very little on Kuleba, Yermak, Zelensky. This is a consequence of the first point: they control the sea and they will dictate the conditions.
It is difficult for me to assess how important this agreement is for Ukraine. I don't have all the data. I only know that most of the new crop will be lost if the grain is not taken out. Our infrastructure is not designed to store a two-year harvest.
Not everyone will like the decision
Given these factors, I think that a diplomatic decision on the Black Sea grain export will be difficult and not everyone will like it. But here I would rather support the authorities, because as long as the Muscovites control the sea, an ideal solution for us is objectively impossible.
