Against the background of the defeat in the Kharkiv region, Russia critically needs at least some local success in order to show “victory” and that “everything is going according to plan.” For this, the Kremlin spares neither manpower nor equipment, but it has no luck.
The host of Channel 24 shared his thoughts on this matterAlexey Pechiy. Read more about the preparations for the liberation of the Luhansk region, the new strategy of the Kremlin and the role of pro-Russian political “canned goods”. Kharkov region. And because of this irresistible desire, the Russians take rather strange steps.
So far, analysts assure that their attempts to advance in the Donetsk region are generally beyond the scope of military logic, because the Armed Forces of Ukraine are currently moving forward in the Luhansk region and can simply surround a large enemy grouping. For example, in Svatovo, explosions were again heard in those places where the invaders clustered. However, such political stubbornness of the Russians is playing into our hands so far, because the enemy's key lines remain in an extremely weak state.
At the same time, strange things are happening in Kherson. There, it seems, separate groups of invaders started a shootout right in the middle of the city. It is obvious that this is either a provocation in order to accuse the Armed Forces of Ukraine of shelling, or a banal nervous exhaustion of the occupiers. And, realizing this, the Kremlin again activated its “canned food”, actively began to call for negotiations.
However, the atrocities of the Russians in Izium no longer leave any adequate doubts – talking with a terrorist is impossible. But for Putin, another big problem has arisen – “claps” have begun to spread through the border cities of Russia itself, and he can no longer answer this.
So, let's talk more about the situation at the front as of today and how the world reacts to Putin's defeat.
Colossal losses: where are the occupying troops from Kharkiv region now
The day before, the head of the British Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Tony Radakin, said that the Kremlin dictator Vladimir Putin “fails absolutely all his military-strategic goals” in Ukraine, but this does not mean that the war will end soon. Unfortunately, it will probably drag on for a long time, despite the recent successes of the Ukrainian military.
According to Tony Radakin, Putin's main problem today is the fact that the Russian army has always had problems with equipment and does not have enough manpower. In particular, we are talking about professional military. Russia has huge problems with them, otherwise the Kremlin would not have recruited mercenaries and prisoners all over Russia. At the same time, Radakin notes, there are Ukrainian Armed Forces that show courage, they fight for their country and enjoy international support. And this allows our Armed Forces to be several levels higher than the Russian army, even in the matter of motivation and morale. But, despite all that has been said, Radakin adds – this does not mean that the war will end soon, it will continue for a long time.
Why does Tony Radakin give such an assessment, starting from the general picture of the situation at the front? Let's find out now.
Let's start with the successes of our Armed Forces. Over the past day, the Ukrainian Air Force destroyed 5 enemy drones and a Russian Ka-52 helicopter. Fighter, attack, bomber aircraft of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine inflicted about 10 air strikes on the occupying forces. Fire damage was inflicted on field ammunition depots, the accumulation of enemy manpower and equipment, as well as enemy air defense systems.
However, it is worth highlighting the Lugansk region separately, where the most mysterious situation is now unfolding. The fact is that the Russians themselves convince themselves that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have stopped on the Oskol River. But this, to put it mildly, is not so. The occupiers, according to the head of the Luhansk OVA Serhiy Gaidai, are trying to pull up equipment to almost all settlements that are close to the administrative border to other regions. In particular, in Troitskoye, Svatovoe, Rubezhnoye and Popasnaya, locals noticed an increase in the presence of Russian equipment. However, this opens up opportunities for the Armed Forces of Ukraine to destroy enemy concentrations along the line between the regions and deeper in the rear. there were Russian invaders. According to Gaidai, there are dead and wounded among the invaders. However, the head of the OVA does not disclose the details of who and how struck the blow.
And such desperate attempts by the Russians to gain a foothold greatly undermine the news regarding their escape from the Kharkov region, because more and more details appear. According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, during the retreat from the Kharkiv region, units of the 11th Army Corps from the Baltic Fleet from Russia lost more than 50% of their personnel and more than 200 pieces of equipment. In addition, the 64th separate motorized rifle brigade of the eastern military district lost more than 90% of its personnel in the dead, wounded, deserters and dismissed as a result of refusing to participate in hostilities. The equipment of the brigade is being handed over to units of the border service of the FSB. The military unit is being prepared for disbandment. That is, basically those invaders who committed crimes in the Kharkiv region are either killed or wounded, or are afraid to return to the front. Accordingly, there is no need to talk about a significant redeployment, or, as they called it in Russia, a “regrouping”. Accordingly, now only the remnants of the occupiers are trying to gain a foothold in the Luhansk region.
Liberation of the Luhansk region: the territory of the region is no longer in the plans of the occupiers
Now a situation that is generally strange from the point of view of logic is developing. Moreover, Sergei Gaidai has even called for preparations for the liberation of the Luhansk region. And now you will understand why.
The fact is that, according to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the occupiers once again suffer significant losses when they try to storm the Defense Forces in the Avdiivka direction. According to available information, more than 30 people from the 1st Army Corps of Russian troops are admitted to hospitals every day. The occupiers are trying in any way to restore the combat capability of the units that have suffered losses. However, this doesn't always work out. It should be recalled that the enemy has been trying to advance on the Avdeevsky and Bakhmut directions for several months now, but has not had significant success. However, he stubbornly continues to do so.
And now, given this situation, compared with the strength of the enemy in the Luhansk region, the Institute for the Study of War directly states that Russian troops continue senseless offensive operations around Donetsk and Bakhmut instead of focusing on defense against Ukrainian counteroffensives. It is now clear that the Kremlin ordered the Russian cannon fodder to seize at least something in the Donetsk region at any cost in order to bring down this wave of panic after the shameful flight from the Kharkiv region. Simply put, the propagandists need material to present as a huge strategic victory. However, this approach can greatly harm the Russians. And that's good.
Another change in “goals” : what the Kremlin wants now
Currently, Russian troops continue to attack Bakhmut and various villages near Donetsk. However, this is a purely emotional significance for the occupiers and militants. However, even tactically it does not matter, because the dreams of capturing Bakhmut, in order to then go to Slavyansk, are finally defeated, because the other flank, which should provide support for this operation – the city of Izyum – has long been under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. But the Russians stubbornly climb Bakhmut.
And this is where the main intrigue of the statements is revealed that it was the Armed Forces of Ukraine that seized the initiative and dictated the conditions for further hostilities. And it also reveals the fact that the Russians are not able to hold the entire front line. According to analysts at the Institute for the Study of War, the Russians, despite Putin's latest statements about the new goals of the “special operation”, namely the capture of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, seem to have decided not to defend the North of the Luhansk region to the last. Analysts admit that now the main priorities of the occupiers are to seize at least something in the Donetsk region at any cost and keep the occupied territories in the South under their control, since the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions are a critically important territory for Russia, because it provides a corridor to the Crimea. On the other hand, the Russians do not consider the territories of the Luhansk region to be so important.
However, the Institute's analysts emphasize that the ongoing Russian offensives around Bakhmut and Donetsk, using some of Russia's very limited effective combat power at the cost of defending against Ukrainian counter-offensives, may indicate that decision-making in the Kremlin remains questionable.
Meanwhile, Ukraine's exchange fund is increasing, Russia's “claps”, and panic in Kherson
While the occupiers have been trying to advance on Bakhmut for weeks, Ukrainian forces are expanding their positions east of the Oskol River and north of the Seversky Donets River, which could allow them to envelop Russian troops that are held around Liman. This will open a direct path to the liberation of the Luhansk region.
However, the question remains open here – is the Kremlin simply trying to win some kind of local victory, turning a blind eye to defeats, or is there simply no one in Russia to send for reinforcements? The day before, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that the counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region had significantly increased the exchange fund. The Ukrainian military, according to the president, captured hundreds of invaders. And the president also called on Russians to surrender more massively, because Ukraine treats them, according to the Geneva Conventions, as prisoners of war. Accordingly, the Russians have nothing to fear in captivity. In addition, this will allow more Ukrainian heroes to be released from Russian captivity. However, at the same time, Zelensky added that the Ukrainian Defense Forces will hit the invaders even harder. And the further, the more dangerous it is for the invaders to remain on Ukrainian soil.
In addition, after a successful Ukrainian counter-offensive in the Kharkiv region, the northeast of the country, an indiscriminate war is now being waged right on the Russian border. Moreover, in Valuyki, Belgorod region, where the Russians fled, “claps” suddenly began. The day before, something exploded at the base of the Russian 3rd motorized rifle division near Valuyki. Russia blames Ukraine for the attack, but Kyiv does not take any responsibility for these explosions. At the same time, Western media are already writing that even if we assume that it was done by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, about which there is no evidence, now it is possible to hit the territory of Russia even from old Ukrainian artillery mounts. That is, the Russians began to feel what war is.
One way or another, but the fact of explosions in the “Belgorod People's Republic” has already caused panic among the Russians and the question of where is that “second army of the world”.
It seems that panic is also increasing among the Russian occupiers, and they are already behaving more and more inappropriately even among themselves. The day before, on September 17, after arriving at one of the headquarters in Kherson, the invaders began a shootout right on the streets of Kherson and drove a lot of equipment there. Later, Russian propagandists said that a counter-terrorist operation had begun in the city. But if this is so, then it turns out that the occupiers admit that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are already in the city and they have to fight back in the streets?
However, whether the invaders will be able to escape from Kherson is another question. According to OK Yug, on the eve of the Armed Forces of Ukraine they sank a barge with Russian equipment and invaders on board. The command once again emphasized that the Armed Forces of Ukraine provided fire control of transport routes, logistics centers, maneuvers and redeployment, basing and control points of enemy units. However, the Russians are still trying to build some alternative methods of transportation across the Dnieper. However, this time, as soon as the barge with the invaders and equipment reached the deep waters of the Dnieper, the Armed Forces of Ukraine covered it with fire. At least 62 military and 5 armored vehicles sank.
So the “canned food” came out: how the Kremlin is trying to change the situation with the hands of foreign politicians
And in this situation, Russian “canned food” in Europe and the world immediately got out. In particular, the day before, Mexican President López Obrador said that one should simply stop supplying weapons to Ukraine, and then Kyiv and Moscow would rather sit down at the negotiating table.
Later, the controversial Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said that Russia's war against Ukraine could continue until 2030, and Ukraine could lose a third or half of its territory. According to the Hungarian prime minister, the war would have been local, but the West intervened and made it global, and now Europe is “shooting itself in the foot” with sanctions. That is, Orban again repeated the thesis that it was not worth helping Ukraine and then the war would sooner end with the defeat of Kyiv.
Then the former Romanian Foreign Minister Andrei Marga, who positions himself as a political scientist, said that Ukraine should cede territory to Russia and three neighbors. According to his logic, Ukraine should not exist within its current borders. It must cede the territories of Hungary, Poland, Romania and Russia. It was a quote. And then he added that now the conflict can only be resolved through negotiations with Russia through the mediation of the United States, Germany and China.
Earlier, as you remember, Angela Merkel and Silvio Berlusconi offered mediation services in negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow. That is, now from all irons a new-old message is heard – Ukraine will not win, negotiations are needed. However, adviser to the head of the Office of the President Mikhail Podolyak is sure that no negotiations will stop the thirst of Russians for atrocities like Bucha, Mariupol or Izyum.
At the same time, President Zelensky said today that now, probably the only thing that can be resolved through diplomacy is the return of Crimea. Zelensky assured that Ukraine simply has no other choice but to de-occupy the entire Ukrainian territory, because our country will be able to live in peace only when it regains all its land.
