NATO Summit will be a 'cold shower' for Russia/Channel 24 site collage
The upcoming Alliance Summit in the Spanish capital will have a revolutionary impact on the global security architecture. And this revolution will definitely not please the Kremlin, which is now regarded by NATO as a threat.
How the United States will strengthen European security, why the summit in Spain will be historic, how the Alliance will help Ukraine, what will be the content of Zelensky’s address to the participants of the meeting, and what it means for Moscow to invite Japan to participate in the meeting in Madrid – the head of the political legal programs at the Ukrainian Center for Community Development Igor Reiterovich.
Strengthening Security in Europe
Igor, what steps to strengthen European security are the United States going to announce during the NATO summit in Madrid?
The United States had in mind the adoption of a new strategic concept that will be in effect in the next decade . According to this new document of strategic importance, Russia will be recognized as the main threat to collective security.
Europe will be in focus for one simple reason. NATO's eastern flank stretches across the EU first of all. It borders on Ukraine, which today takes the blow of the Russian military machine.
And therefore it is clear that the statements of the representatives of the United States as a bloc-forming country are aimed at strengthening collective security in the countries of the European Union.
First of all, just in the countries that belong to the new members. Among which are Poland and the Baltic States, Romania, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, etc. Everything to ensure that they are as strengthened and reinforced as possible. Including the American troops.
If what the leaders of the NATO countries, including the Secretary General, spoke about in advance, about increasing the number of rapid reaction forces from 40 to 300 thousand people, then it is clear that all these army men should be placed in certain countries.
Most likely it will be just American soldiers. And they will be located in those countries that I named above. Something that is either in close proximity to Russia, or neighboring Ukraine.
This will be such key security measures. Not to mention the rearmament or strengthening of air defense. All this is already clear. -stanet-holodnym-dushem-dlja-rossii-intervju-s-ekspertom-12f6f36.jpg” alt=”NATO summit in Madrid will be a 'cold shower' for Russia: an interview with an expert” />
The main thing is the creation of a security belt, where there will be representatives of different NATO countries, who will be permanently based in the EU countries, the expert emphasized/Photo courtesy of the speaker
Jens Stoltenberg said the day before, that this summit will be of historic significance. What exactly is historicity? Apart from adopting a new strategic concept, of course.
The first reasonThe historicity of this event is associated with the expansion of the bloc's presence in Europe. And it is unprecedented in its essence. Nothing like this has happened since the most active phase of the Cold War.
That is, we must understand that even when the Soviet Union existed, the number of NATO troops in the countries of the same Europe never did not grow, as it will happen now. You see, we will witness a massive restructuring of the global security architecture.
And the second reasonHistoricity lies in the fact that if earlier NATO was a bloc that recognized the main enemy of the USSR (until 1991 – Channel 24), then after the collapse of the evil empire, the priorities changed. The bloc's focus has shifted to the ephemeral threat of Islamic fundamentalists or the PRC.
But now the newest evil empire in the person of Russia will be identified as the main enemy. And from today, all the forces and means at NATO's disposal will be concentrated on keeping the Kremlin from an aggressive policy as much as possible.
Moscow must understand that any step it takes will automatically elicit an adequate response according to the circumstances of the place-time.
Support for Ukraine
We have already mentioned with You about Ukraine in our conversation. What kind of assistance will be provided to our country following the results of the summit? This was previously reported in many Western and domestic media, respectively.
We must clearly understand one very important thing. By the way, representatives of our government often forget about it, unfortunately. In the context of military-technical assistance to Ukraine
The Alliance operates in two key areas: The first direction is characteristic of NATO as a whole, as a bloc. It consists in providing us with exclusively non-lethal assistance by this organization. That is, in the form of consumables and fuel, which we need no less than weapons. In addition, we are talking about various means of protection for the military and civilians. This is what NATO as an organization is now doing.
Of course, following the results of the Madrid summit, we will receive confirmation of our intention to provide such assistance in the future and expand its volumes. Including taking into account the new challenges that Kyiv may face. Take, for example, nuclear rhetoric, to which Moscow has begun to actively return in recent days.
This list will definitely include the States, Great Britain, Germany and some other representatives of the bloc. We are talking about additional weapon packs that will be announced after the meeting ends.
I think that the emphasis will be on two main components: anti-missile weapons and air defense and MLRS, which we are seriously lacking today.
As for the volumes, we will talk about dozens of such weapons. I do not rule out that we can be pleasantly surprised in this regard by providing the necessary weapons, at least in the amount that we approximately need.
Continuing the topic of Ukraine. Will our president touch upon the topic of weapons in his speech at the summit?
He will definitely talk about it. Perhaps, in one form or another, he will return to the theme of the closed sky. The mention of the closed sky, in my opinion, can be tied to the issue of the Black Sea. In addition, the food problem will not be ignored.
It will also be discussed. True, most likely NATO will not intervene in this situation directly. Perhaps only through Turkey, which is ready to take on these intermediary duties.
In addition, the president will dwell on the need to tighten sanctions and ask for confirmation that the open door policy remains in place. Even according to representatives of the Alliance, no one is going to change this policy.
This will be directly stated during this summit. It is important for us to have room to maneuver in case negotiations with the enemy on security guarantees fail. If we cannot reach an agreement with Putin, our only option will be to join NATO as soon as possible.
After all, even if this war ends by the end of the year, as Zelensky would like, no one will guarantee that after some certain time the Kremlin will not want to fight again. But this time it is already at one with NATO.
Ukraine's path to NATO
Preparing for our conversation, I came across a statement from our officials that neither in the short term, nor in the medium term, we are not going to join NATO. Please comment. How should we understand such words of our officials? And how does this compare with the need to be sure that the doors to the Alliance are open?
On the one hand, such a statement is a recognition of the current state of affairs. We understand that in the near future we will not have to talk about joining the Alliance due to the lack of an internal consensus in this global military-political structure.
However, this does not prevent us from doing the two most important things. The first of which is the need to complete the modernization of our army according to the NATO model. At this point, the position of, for example, Sweden and Finland, which really do not need MAP, is very interesting. Just because they have an army that fully meets all the necessary criteria a long time ago. madridskij-summit-nato-stanet-holodnym-dushem-dlja-rossii-intervju-s-ekspertom-53a85da.jpg” alt=”NATO summit in Madrid will be a 'cold shower' for Russia: an interview with an expert” />
Ukraine must move forward/Photo by Getty Images
Their armies have been conducting joint exercises for a long time, participating in the training of the military in accordance with unified training programs. Therefore, Ukraine should move forward in this regard, not forgetting that this is our strategic goal.
That's just on this occasion, on the contrary, we have a consensus at the NATO level. And for us, this fact is actually very important. Because such modernization, training of our army is an urgent need. Therefore, cooperation in this vein will continue. No matter how the war ends. We will not move away from this, since this is a matter of national security.
And the second point is that this interaction can take place with individual NATO countries. For example, with Poland and the Baltic countries and our other western neighbors or close allies like Romania and the United States.
After all, you have heard about the union Poland-Britain-Ukraine. NATO does not forbid its members to be in such integral associations.
Today we can strengthen our interaction with the North Atlantic Alliance in this way. Among other things, having the opportunity to learn from someone else's experience and share your own in the framework of joint exercises. And then time will tell how effective this approach was. In this case, everything depends only on ourselves.
Because again, everything depends on how we position ourselves after the war.
If we do not follow the path of neutrality, about which much has been said earlier, due to the inability to achieve a favorable peace with the Russian Federation, our path will be connected only with NATO.
But then Stoltenberg will definitely not refuse us will be able. I'm sure of it.
A “cold shower” for Russia
The Baltic countries are demanding that this summit be given the effect of a “cold shower” for Russia. Will this demand be met?
To a large extent, that is exactly what will happen. For one simple reason. If a new strategic concept is adopted, it will be accepted, Russia will be officially recognized as the main potential adversary.
Imagine what kind of hysteria this will entail in Moscow. Of course, on the one hand, they can even use this fact to their advantage. In order to show that now the country is really at war with all of NATO.
To a certain extent, this will force the Russians to react to all the transformation that will take place. If the rapid reaction forces are increased by almost 10 times, then, accordingly, the Russian side will be forced to react in a mirror way, trying to increase the size of its own army. And this means that the Kremlin will become a participant in another armed race. A race that will never be won.
After all, unlike its progenitor, the Soviet Union, which withstood this race almost until the moment of its self-destruction, Russia will not be able to do this. Simply because it uses mainly Western components to create its military potential.
And that is why this summit will be a “cold shower”. No one was going to fight with them, no one considered them as the main strategic threat. Until you yourself became one of your own free will, dear Russians.
Recall at least the beginning of Putin's presidency, when they were absolutely seriously going to join the now hated bloc in the future. There is just a problem here. A country wishing to apply for a place in NATO must, at least according to the program, at least meet at least some democratic standards.
After the Alliance refused to accept Russia into its ranks, Putin took offense at him. We can see and feel the consequences of this resentment now.
Pavel Klimkin said in a commentary for one of the domestic media that Japan's invitation to the summit would cause hysteria in the Kremlin. Do you share his opinion?
There will be hysteria in Russia from the point of view that more and more countries directly bordering it are coming into close contact with a hostile bloc. Take at least Finland and Sweden. And then there will be Japan, with which Putin has not yet settled the territorial dispute. And with the Finns, everything is far from so simple. Most of the Leningrad region was previously the territory of Finland.
Japan's invitation is a symbolism game beloved by Russians. Now it's time for them to get an “answer”. A country with which Moscow has not settled the issue of the Kuril Islands is coming to the fore in the face of the Japanese state. And, accordingly, a peace treaty has not been signed on the rights of the successor to the USSR. De jure, both countries are now at war.
Tokyo has officially secured its territorial claims against Russia. And here the Japanese capital is participating in the NATO summit. That's it, right? This is nothing but a slap in the face to the Russians. From now on, the Kremlin must seriously consider these territories, realizing that there are also questions about them. To keep them safe from potential Japanese military action, Putin would have to move enough troops there for ongoing exercises. And this means dispersal of available resources across all borders. And sooner or later it will break, where it will be extremely thin.
The conflict between Russia and Lithuania
We see that in recent days the issue of transit through Lithuanian territory has surfaced to the Russian-occupied Koenigsberg, which they called Kaliningrad in their own way. Will this issue be raised at the summit?
Undoubtedly it will. Only behind the scenes, not at the official level. Moreover, I am convinced that Lithuania's decision to block the transit was, at the very least, agreed upon with key Alliance allies. For example, with the UK and the USA.
The Lithuanians certainly informed the right people that Russia could use the fact of blocking as a casus belli. So yes, it will be discussed. It is possible that in combination with the strategy of strengthening the eastern flank.
According to this policy of strengthening, additional forces of the allied states will have to be sent to Lithuania to improve defense capability in case of direct aggression from Moscow. The Lithuanians, in fact, are now insisting on just such a development of events.
In general, I predict that in the near future the military presence of NATO forces in the countries of the eastern flank will noticeably increase. We will see the movement of manpower and equipment of the allies in this direction. In addition, new military bases will be built in this region.
