As winter approaches, Ukrainians are warned that Russia will certainly cause us trouble – massively hitting critical infrastructure, as it did last year. And intelligence says that the invaders are stockpiling missiles.
Since the summer, the enemy has been conducting aerial reconnaissance of our energy facilities. Since September, missile attacks have decreased significantly, with the Russians mainly launching Shahed-131/136 drones.
Although last fall-winter Russian terrorists were unable to “put a stop” to our energy supply, Ukrainians sat for four to six, and sometimes even eight, hours without electricity. This heating season, the Russians will certainly try to take a more thoughtful approach to new attacks. But there is one big problem – we have received modern Western missile defense systems for protection, such as: SAMP/T, Patriot, IRIS-T, NASAMS, Crotale, etc. That is, we have something to shoot down Russian missiles and drones.
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Facts ICTV asked an aviation expert, leading researcher at the State Aviation Museum of the National Aviation University, candidate of historical sciences Valery Romanenko about Russia's prospects in creating a new long-range aviation cruise missile and the level of missile threats in winter.
New Russian rocket – what is known?
Thus, in the Russian media, citing sources, they allegedly write about the creation of a new long-range cruise missile, which will be equipped with the modern 5th generation fighter Su-57.
Allegedly, Russian engineers were able to reduce the size of the rocket due to a new folding wing design and internal layout, as well as by using a new small-sized bypass turbojet engine. The name of the rocket or at least some characteristics are not reported by Russian media.
According to Valery Romanenko, even if the Russians created such a missile, it will not radically change the situation.
“I don’t think there will be anything new there.” The Russians may try to increase the range of the Kh-31 and Kh-59 missiles, an aviation expert said.
If the missile is placed in the fuselage, this will give an advantage to an enemy aircraft to fly into the controlled territory of Ukraine and launch. This will reduce the cost of the strike. After all, long-range missiles cost from $1-3 million, for example, Kalibr, Kh-101, and up to $10 million, like Daggers.
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Therefore, regarding the “new” missile, another Russian source claims that Su-34 bombers have the opportunity to use it. And it seems that these missiles have already been launched.
According to aviation expert Valery Romanenko, the bad thing is that it is the latest long-range missile, and that it was “attached” to the Su-34. This would indeed hinder timely warning of missile strikes.
But if the missile is small and long-range, then it will have a relatively small warhead, which is good news. And one more thing – the Russians do not write supersonic, that is, it is subsonic and is an easy target for our missile defense systems.
How many new Su-57 fighters do the Russians have?
As for the newest Su-57 fighters, at the beginning of 2023 the Russians had only 9 units. They released 10, but the first plane crashed during testing.
According to Valery Romanenko, the Russian Federation has a project for Su-75 fighters, which they wanted to do together with India. But the Indians even abandoned the Su-57, because the radio-electronic equipment and stealth technology of the aircraft do not correspond to the 5th generation.
By the way, the General Staff of Ukraine has not yet reported the destruction of at least one Su-57 on Ukrainian territory, because they simply did not fly to us. Although the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that the Su-57 was in our airspace.
Iranian missiles for Russia
There is no confirmed data yet that the Iranians handed over any missiles to the Russians, although Iran has a lot of such weapons – with different warheads and different ranges.
In early October, the Russian occupiers announced that they had used Iranian 122 mm rocket-propelled ammunition against Ukraine. These missiles for the BM-21 Grad multiple launch rocket system were developed by DIO. The Arash-1 ammunition range is 21.5 km and the speed is 710 m/s. They carry a high-explosive fragmentation warhead.
As for the supply of Shahed-131/136 kamikaze drones, Tehran has fulfilled all previously concluded agreements and has not yet supplied such drones. Although Russia itself has already launched the production of Shaheds on its territory.
Are “lawnmower” drones dangerous?
According to aviation expert Valery Romanenko, these drones are assembled in Izhevsk, Russia. For example, “lawn mowers” (they got this name because of the specific sound of the engine) are equipped with a Chinese cylinder model aircraft engine with a power of 7 liters. With. Shahed has a 50 hp aircraft engine. With.
The expert noted that this enterprise produced Lancet drones with Czech engines, but the Czech Republic stopped deliveries and is no longer waiting to take them. Therefore, the Russians, having the power, decided to make drones with piston engines. And where can you get a lot of engines – of course, in China.
Now Italmas drones and “lawn mowers” are assembled in Izhevsk, although the production of both is not mass-produced.
Therefore, “lawn mowers” – their characteristics are very primitive: speed is about 100 km/h (Shahed has more than 220 km/h) – they can easily be shot down by mobile fire groups; poor aerodynamics – such drones are unable to fly far into the interior of the territory.
“If the Russians had spent at least 200-300 dollars on the aerodynamics of the fuselage, then perhaps this drone would pose some kind of threat, but otherwise it’s just a stupid waste of money,” says Valery Romanenko.
In terms of the warhead, both Italmas and the “lawnmower” can lift very little explosives – up to 5 kg. For comparison, the small Shahed 131 carries about 15 kg, and the large Shahed 136 – 40-50 kg.
How will the Russians attack our energy sector?
According to the military, it is now extremely difficult to predict what exactly the invaders’ tactics will be and when exactly the occupiers will begin massive shelling. Last year, the Russians could simultaneously launch 70-100 missiles, or even more, into Ukraine from different directions and locations. Shahed was also launched along with the missiles. We shot down most of the targets.
Aviation expert Valery Romanenko is confident that the attacks on Ukraine will be systematic. The enemy's stock of missiles is at last year's level. The Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense cites the figure as 870 missiles of various types.
“I don’t think the Russians will try to launch 100 or more missiles at the same time, because for such a tactic the missiles must enter Ukrainian airspace at the same time. And it will be very difficult for the Navy, Air Force and Ground Missile Forces to play at the same time, and also to use Shahed launchers,” notes Valery Romanenko.
All of these weapons have different flight speeds and will be launched from different places. And the automated missile defense systems provided to us by our Western partners (SAMP/T, Patriot, IRIS-T, NASAMS, HAWK) are designed to defeat several dozen targets simultaneously.
It is clear that any missiles and attack drones will pose a direct threat to our population and infrastructure. Ukraine is constantly negotiating to strengthen all types of air and missile defense. We are improving mobile fire teams that can counter drones. And we probably protected energy facilities better. But, despite everything, we must be prepared for different developments, because the enemy’s goals have not changed at all.
