The supply of North Korean artillery ammunition to the Russian army is unlikely to radically change the situation at the front, but may give Russia a break.
This opinion was expressed in a commentary to ICTV Facts by a political scientist, Head of Political and Legal Programs of the Ukrainian Center for Social Development Igor Reiterovich.
According to the expert, the situation for Russia will not improve, because North Korea simply will not be able to provide the amount of ammunition that the Russian army really needs. There is a point related to logistics, because the shells will have to be transported across all of Asia.
They are looking now
An equally important point is the quality of North Korean shells. According to Ukrainian and Western military estimates, the quality there is not the best. It is not yet known in what conditions those ammunition are stored.
But for Russia, arms supplies from the DPRK can provide some respite — that is, now to close the existing gaps at the front and get time to increase the production of ammunition in the Russian Federation.
The Russians are now talking about producing 2 million shells a year, but this is not enough for them, because during the year and a half of the war in Ukraine they used more than 10 million shells.
— That is, these agreements between Putin and Kim Jong-un — this is a short term plan. And in the future we may talk about creating joint ventures on the territory of the DPRK. But again — this perspective is very delayed in time, — noted Igor Reiterovich.
Hidden interests of China
Political scientist Igor Reiterovich is confident that China has direct influence on Kim Jong-un, but it is obvious that recently the North Korean dictator is increasingly showing so-called independence. Thus, Kim probably wants to strengthen his role in the region and show that he will choose his own ally.
Kim Jong-un wants to show China that he can easily come to an agreement with the Russians and get some preferences. China understands all this and is still watching. But if the situation gets out of control, then China will take measures that are unlikely to be positive for both Russia and North Korea.
In general, China has its own long-term plans for Russia. But the Chinese do not like this meeting between Kim Jong-un and Vladimir Putin.
For example: North Korea launches missiles, Japan and South Korea respond by increasing defense spending. China doesn't need this because it wants to dominate the region. China needs everything to be quiet and peaceful, so that it can calmly reform its army, and then declare dominance.
Political and legal adviser, head of the Center for Military Legal Research, Alexander Musienko, also expressed this on United News the opinion that Kim Jong-un is very dependent on China — especially in matters of arms supplies. In addition, it is possible that among the Korean shells there will be some Chinese ones.
Putin’s weakness
The fact that Russian President Vladimir Putin can ask Kim for artillery shells speaks to the weakness of the Russian dictator. But this does not make it any easier for Ukraine, the expert notes. Just remember the agreement between Russia and Iran on the supply of Shahed attack drones. A year ago we were told that we would easily shoot down these drones. Yes, our military shoots them down, but there are also hits.
The same situation may be with artillery shells from North Korea. We don't know what condition they are in — some may work, some — won't work. However, this is also a threat.
Ukraine’s partners are also wary of possible supplies of North Korean missiles to Russia. According to Alexander Musienko, now the West would like to help Ukraine increase its weapons several times.
— By and large — this is a struggle for spheres of influence — between the West and China. Who will determine the rules of the game in the world order in the future? Everything is beneficial for China, because it does not fight and will not fight. Russia is at war. And China will give Russia just enough to prevent it from falling. In exchange, China will want to receive land, resources, and the like from the Russian Federation.
Later it may happen that Russia will be left without anything — at a broken trough, but that will happen later. And by that time Ukraine will have to fight,” noted Alexander Musienko.
The expert also noted that he does not understand the US statements about strengthening sanctions against the DPRK. According to Musienko, North Korea has been under significant sanctions for a long time, as well as Iran.
— Did the introduction of additional sanctions against Iran for the supply of martyrs really help? It didn’t help, it didn’t work,” said expert Alexander Musienko.
“Doubtful” help for Russia
Basically, Ukrainian experts agree that North Korean shells will continue shelling at the front, although there will be no barrage of fire — not the same volume.
In the DPRK arsenal, for example, there are 122 mm and 152 mm calibers that are suitable for Russian artillery systems. Although the issue here is the condition of the shells. Analysts are confident that the North Koreans have a lot of old weapons that are more than 30-35 years old. And Russia is also throwing old iron at the front.
Experts also suggest that the DPRK may transfer its artillery systems and mortars to Putin. But here the same question — what condition they are in.
Therefore, it is still clear that the war in Ukraine will drag on, but it is unlikely that there will be any fundamental changes in the course.
