< p _ngcontent-sc137="" class="news-annotation">Belarusian dictator Lukashenka has again become active in the information space, and with it the expectation of an invasion of Ukraine. Channel 24 analyzes the latest statements about the creation of a joint Belarusian-Russian army and advises not only to keep gunpowder dry, but also to keep a cold mind.
All-in for holy fools
In the fall of 2022, Russian aggression against Ukraine clearly entered a new phase. After a series of defeats by the “Russian army” on land, water and in the air, Moscow decided to raise the stakes and go for broke.
To this end, Russia announced a massive “partial” mobilization, intensely frightened the world with a new nuclear war, and even carried out the most massive “bombing” since February 24-25. As a result of the latter, 19 people were killed, critical infrastructure facilities were temporarily disabled, and large cities were left without electricity for several hours.
It seems that Russia thus tried to add mysticism to its aggression against Ukraine and imitate one of the Egyptian punishments, namely darkness. The next item on the “program” should have been, probably, the “invasion of frogs”, because “swarms of flies (drones)”, “hail of fire” and “invasion of locusts” (in fact, an invasion and an attempt to destroy the crop) along with the abduction and murder of children – there were already first-born.
Kozyrny Lukashenka
Putin has chosen his longtime accomplice, the self-proclaimed President Alexander Lukashenko, for this role.
For a long time, Lukashenko tried with all his might to “dodge” – the Belarusian military did not invade Ukraine in February and March along with the Russians, they did not do this in summer and autumn. Moreover, Lukashenka even denied his own participation in the aggression and only on October 4 officially recognized the fact of Belarus' participation in the war.
As for our participation in a special military operation in Ukraine, we participate in it. We do not hide it. But we don't kill anyone. We don't send our military anywhere. We do not violate our obligations,” Lukashenka said at a security meeting on October 4, 2022.
Pay attention!From the point of view of international law, Lukashenka's attempts to absolve himself of responsibility for the aggression are worthless, because the actions of Belarus are defined as complicity in a war of aggression and war crimes. It was on the orders of Lukashenka that Belarus provided its territory and airspace to the Russians for the invasion of Ukraine, shelling of peaceful Ukrainian cities is carried out from the territory of Belarus.
Lukashenko admits his complicity in the aggression – watch the video:
Belarus also supplies the aggressor with weapons and equipment, missiles and shells, fuel and lubricants, provides logistics and allows its citizens to participate in aggression as mercenaries in the service of the Russians. to the dock of a future tribunal, if, of course, he lives to see it. Recall that far from all the defendants of Nuremberg or The Hague lived to see the verdict, for example, Slobodan Milosevic did not receive such a privilege.
On October 10, Lukashenka came out with a statement about the deployment of a regional group of forces of the so-called “Union State” joint with the Russians. The “father” traditionally did not name the details and specifics for himself, but Russian propagandists and some Ukrainian media hastened to spread these words as preparations for the second attempt to invade Ukraine from the territory of Belarus and the fact that “Putin has finally put the squeeze on Lukashenka.”
Smoker's Army
Despite the bombastic statements by Lukashenka and his henchmen about a strong army that has been preparing for “something” for more than 20 years, the facts point to the opposite. The Belarusian dictator has up to 40 thousand troops, from which he is ready to deploy no more than 20 armored personnel carriers (Lukashenko also dreams of 500,000 reservists). Of course, all these people have no combat experience of modern warfare and no particular desire to die.
Belarusians were also left without equipment, and especially shells and missiles. All this “good” was given to the Russians and went to the war in Ukraine in a roundabout way.
Lukashenka's plan provides for the unification of the Belarusian army with units of the Russian units defeated in Ukraine in the spring (1st Guards Tank Corps, 20th Army and the leftovers of the “Gostomel landing force”). They are supposed to be “revived” at the expense of newly arrived “mobiks” – the same heroes of absurd commercials from Tik-Tok and Telegram.
According to the commander of the Joint Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Lieutenant-General Serhiy Naev, these soldiers need about 2-3 months to prepare for becoming a full-fledged combat unit. But what will happen next?
Mannerheim Line 2.0
Ukraine uses “silence” on its northern border as efficiently as possible. After the North was liberated from the enemy, a powerful defense line was created on the border with Belarus and the border area was turned into a modern fortress.
Ukraine strengthens the northern border: watch the video
All this time, the authorities of Belarus regularly accused Ukraine of aggressive plans and even called the Ukrainian ambassador in Minsk to show “where the attack on Belarus was coming from.”
On October 8, an anecdotal incident occurred. The head of the State Border Committee of Belarus, Anatoly Lappo, was forced to admit that Ukraine cannot attack his country.
The situation in the southern direction is difficult. The efforts of the Ukrainian side are focused on building up the cover of the state border. At present, almost all border bridges have been blown up, and automobile and railroads have been blown up, and border roads have been completely mined. Up to the fact that they put anti-tank mines in three rows on the roads, – the main Belarusian border guard was upset.
Thus, if Belarus decides to invade, the hastily assembled army will have to repeat the “feat” of the Russians in the Northern War of 1940 and storm the “Mannerheim Line 2.0”, but without the support of aviation and modern artillery (because all this has long been dies somewhere in the Donbass or near Kherson), with much smaller forces and without the effect of surprise. Recall that all this, to one degree or another, was among the elite units of the Russians in February 2022, but ended in a fiasco near Kyiv.
Recall that at that time Lukashenka effectively “winded” and did not give Putin his soldiers, but this time, instead of elite, but still fallen combatants, the Russian dictator can give a satellite only “partially mobilized.” And that's it. You don't have to be an ISW analyst to guess what will happen if you try to cross the Ukrainian border. The only question is how quickly the Kastus Kalinovsky Belarusian Regiment will turn into a brigade and whether it will become a full-fledged army.
Space for maneuver
The complicity of the Lukashenka regime in the crimes of the Russians unties the hands of Ukraine and makes all military facilities on the territory of Belarus legitimate targets for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. From the point of view of international law, the Belarusian airfield in Zyabrovka is no different from the Russian airfield in Shaikovka or Millerovo. And if Russia cannot protect its own territory from Ukrainian missiles and shells, then what can we say about Belarus.
It seems that Minsk understands this, so the common army with the Russians will be another profanity and sabotage. Lukashenka managed for many years to slow down the absorption of Belarus by the Russians and extort billions of dollars from the Kremlin for the ideas of the so-called “Union State”. In the winter of 2022, he seemed to be pinned to the wall by Putin, but once again he managed to “wind through”, confining himself to a meme statement about the victory over Ukraine and its TRO with wooden machine guns in 3-4 days.
Maybe now we are seeing another maneuver. At least, this can explain the peacefulness of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which do not respond to shelling from Belarusian territory or airspace, although they have both the opportunity and legal grounds for this. Also, Ukraine does not break off diplomatic relations with Minsk, although it could have done it a very long time ago.
Maybe Lukashenka himself sees himself in the dock of the future tribunal not as a new Milosevic, but as his successor – Milan Milutinovic, who managed to prove in The Hague that he did not control the army of war criminals, and therefore escaped prison.
France threatened Belarus for a possible attack on Ukraine – watch the video:
<
