Gudkov about the potential entry of Belarus into the war against Ukraine/Channel 24 collage
Putin was going to go to Lukashenka. This is the first time since the beginning of a full-scale war against Ukraine, the Russian dictator will get out of the borders of his state. They say that he wants to put even more pressure on his satellite so that Belarus enters the war.
However, the visit may not help. Russian opposition politician Gennady Gudkov told Channel 24 about this.
Lukashenko does not want to risk his life and power for Putin
He believes that, first of all, Putin wants to leave for Belarus to prove that he is alive and well and still capable of doing something. In addition, except as there, they are no longer expected.
Gudkov says that the visit of the aggressor president to Lukashenka in order to put pressure on him is hypothetically possible. However, the politician believes that Lukashenka will still not act on Putin's orders, but will try to avoid interfering in the war with Ukraine.
I have serious doubts about the implementation of this idea. Lukashenka will not save Putin at the cost of his life, at the cost of losing his power and going to The Hague. It won't, Gudkov believes.
He explained that Lukashenka's authorities, given the hatred of about 85 or 90% of the population of Belarus towards him, are supported only by the security forces, the armed forces. Therefore, it is not profitable for him to send them to certain death.
As Gudkov says, recently the President of Kazakhstan, Tokayev, signaled to everyone that Putin had already lost the war de facto, and maybe even the country. Formally, he told Putin: “Volodya, you are a loser, you lost, and I don’t want to have anything to do with you so that I don’t have problems later.”
Recall, the other day the president of Kazakhstan said that he did not recognize the quasi-republics of the “LPR” and “DPR”, and Russia did not save Kazakhstan from the protests in January 2022, and no one would bow at her feet.
“Now imagine that Lukashenka he understands that Putin has lost and there is not much left for him, he understands that the population hates him and power rests on the security forces, will he send these security officials as cannon fodder to Ukraine? I doubt very much,” he is sure.
According to the politician, the self-proclaimed head of Belarus will continue his line of maneuvering, will continue to promise and swear to Putin, who is preparing for war, if only to receive money and some kind of support.
Gudkov does not believe that Lukashenka will dare attack Ukraine in the current conditions. Even 2 months ago it would have been possible, but not now, because the situation is completely different.
A turning point in the war is coming, understandable monoliths of the positions of the West, many Ukrainian military will arrive with a new weapons, taught them to lead and act. I do not believe that Lukashenka will really enter the war at this very moment,” the Russian opposition politician explained.
In his opinion, Lukashenka cannot behave like Tokayev, because he is largely dependent on Putin. Firstly, his country is actually surrendered to Russia for military purposes, and secondly, he has no support other than Putin. That is why he is forced to maneuver and bend in order not to enter the war, risking everything, but not to anger the Russian dictator.
