Publication author
Alexander Kochetkov
We are thinking about why Father Lukashenka went to China, as if according to the Komsomol detente. And for three whole days. What can he go there and why? Well, it's definitely not a secret of the development of collective farms in the Chinese way.
China is Lukashenka's savior before Putin
Alexander Lukashenko went to China for the 13th time. This is more than any other European leader. Even self-appointed.
So, father is close to the Chinese rulers for his mossy socialist ideals, as well as for his authoritarian immutability and rare political omnivorousness. That is, the Belarusian dictator and the Chinese leaders of the Communist Party are close in spirit.
Lukashenka copied the multi-vector approach from our Leonid Kuchma and flirts simultaneously with Russia and China, because it did not work out with the States. It is China, for suspenders, that keeps Lukashenko from falling into the abyss of war, where Putin is pulling him with all his might.
The fact is that China is implementing the Belt and Road strategic initiative in Belarus, where the Great Stone industrial park was created at the expense of China.
Lukashenka came up with an excuse. Like, Xi Jinping is against the entry of Belarus into the war in Ukraine, because Chinese investments may suffer because of this. Putin has nothing to answer. By the way, this is an illustration of why China does not support Ukraine – China protects its assets. At the same time, he does not have assets in Ukraine, but problems.
What parcel is being carried by the courier Lukashenka
But still, the special relationship with China is no reason to travel back and forth to Beijing. This readiness is shown not by political leaders, but by delivery couriers. So Lukashenka is now acting as such a courier. Only he does not carry pizza or fried potatoes, but elements of a “peace plan” for Ukraine. A plan devised in Moscow to get a temporary reprieve from the outbreak of war and requiring Beijing to coordinate and promote it.
What appeared the other day is not a plan, but some kind of wish list for the Chinese maneuver, because the points there conflict with each other. For example, the clause on respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity runs counter to the call to start peace talks. What kind of negotiations and sovereignty, if the invaders are on Ukrainian soil?
A plan, unlike a wish list, involves a sequence of steps. If Lukashenka manages to agree on the main point with Beijing and Moscow, then Comrade Xi will personally announce this peace plan. If the plan he personally announced is not taken seriously, then China will have to take steps to push through its plan, otherwise the image of a superpower will suffer.
The main point is fixing the line of demarcation. Without this, no negotiations can be effective in principle.
- Kyiv unequivocally and optimistically speaks about the complete de-occupation of Ukraine, that is, a return to the situation of 2013. This is a crushing defeat of the under-empire, and it will definitely not agree to this today.
- Moscow, in the Jesuit formulation, proposes “to agree with the prevailing realities,” that is, all the territories occupied today remain under its control. This means, albeit not a crushing, but still the defeat of Ukraine, which we will definitely not agree to either.
However, the compromise that lies on the surface – to roll back to the situation before a full-scale invasion – is also unacceptable for the parties. After all, this is a defeat for the public opinion of both countries. You see, usually a compromise is something that is tense, but suits both parties. However, both of us are not satisfied. Therefore, this war is existential.
Can China provide weapons to Belarus
That is, to turn the list of wishes into a plan for a peaceful settlement, which the head of China is not ashamed to come up with, even the very first paragraph does not add up. So, with a probability of 80%, I am sure that Lukashenka will not leave anything. Everything will be limited to the already sounded rhetorical Chinese wishes. Which are like the Chinese last warning.
But if suddenly, for some reason I don’t understand, China wants to get involved in the war on the side of Russia, then only Chinese arms supplies to the under-empire can be an effective option for spreading the pro-Kremlin “peace plan”. This is the hope of the suitcase Fuhrer. And the last one, apparently.
China will not directly supply weapons to the under-empire, otherwise it will immediately run into a really tough reaction from the United States and Europe. These markets are immeasurably more important for China than Russia. If Beijing were ready for this, it would have done it a long time ago. Secret deliveries of weapons to Belarus so that it secretly transfers them to Russia is also not an option, because this is an even more obvious scheme than the notorious “ihtamnets”.
The only option is the legal supply of Chinese weapons to Belarus “to protect” Chinese assets there. However, for this Belarus will have to openly enter the war against Ukraine. This poses a mortal threat, first of all, to the regime of father Lukashenka.
So Lukashenka's political courier will be about as successful as a hockey player. That is, none.
But we still can't relax. Only victories on the fronts will ensure a real stoppage of fire on acceptable terms. Until a strong peace, which is possible only after the collapse of the under-empire, we still, unfortunately, have to fight and fight.
