< p _ngcontent-sc181="" class="news-annotation">Recently, 100,000 killed Russian invaders were celebrated in Ukraine. Every morning, the statistics of losses consoles with an increase in the number of visitors to the “Kobzon concert”. At the same time, the question often arises as to how the published figures are considered and how real they are. This is also facilitated by the fact that different intelligence agencies and think tanks sometimes present different data.
PublicistStanislav Bezushko on the IQ platformanalyzed what is often forgotten to be taken into account when calculating the losses of Russians in the war against Ukraine.
How the losses in the war are divided
For irrevocable and sanitary. Sanitary losses can be heavy, after which no one returns to the war, or they can be light, allowing soldiers to fight in a few days. It is the irretrievable losses that are published in the defense forces. And they also talk about all the Russian occupation troops (hereinafter – the ROV), and not just about the regular army of Russia. ROV is a general concept that directly covers the regular Russian army, mercenaries illegally mobilized in the temporarily occupied territory, Wagnerites (various types), other mercenaries and the National Guard. That is why, when it comes to the losses of Russians in Ukraine, they should not be imposed on the regular Russian army. No one walks around the battlefield and does not specify who the enemy was and where he served.
This is the first reason for the disagreement in the calculations, the author believes.
It should be notedthat the intelligence of the United States or Great Britain often considers only the loss of personnel parts of Russia, and these figures will logically be less. Interestingly, the public organization “Eastern Human Rights Group” in April announced 23,000 dead from among those illegally mobilized in the temporarily occupied territory. This figure was significantly inflated as of April, but now it is more than real.
Advisor to the head of the Office of the President Mikhail Podolyak noted on Twitter thatthe Ukrainian army neutralized (i.e. killed, wounded, captured, missing) 29,543 prisoners recruited by the Wagner private military company in Russian prisons. If we take into account that 127,500 destroyed invaders (official data as of the morning of January 31, 23) include all these groups of the military, then the numbers are very, very realistic. That is why the losses did not affect the Russian regular army so much.
Why do independent analysts often doubt these data?
According to the author's explanation, most analyst calculations are based on the ratio of killed to wounded being typically 1 to 3. And in this case, there should be another 376,530 wounded invaders. Then the total number of losses should have been 502,040. However, this “average figure” in a real war is not true.
Note! Indeed, due to the high intensity of the fighting and the work of artillery, there are a large number of wounded on both sides. In Ukraine, the ratio of the dead to the wounded is from 1/5 to 1/8, depending on the direction and nature of the fighting. This is facilitated by the provision of the military with normal first-aid kits, a large number of personnel, which can provide high-quality first aid and organized evacuation with battlefields. The Ukrainian military has a high chance of surviving on the battlefield after being wounded.
Russians have a much worse situation
If in the first months the ratio of killed to wounded was 1 to 3, then from the summer it first became 1 to 2, and from the end of autumn in the hottest sectors of the front it was 1 to 1. the number of those killed becomes more than the number of wounded – due to the practically absent first aid. Therefore, by the end of the battle, the wounded turn into the destroyed.
Among the “Wagnerites” the number of those killed in recent months is generally greater than the number of wounded. The same situation was in the spring with those illegally mobilized in the occupied territory.
Therefore, the real number of wounded invaders for the entire period of the war may be close to 260 thousand, and the total losses – up to 380 thousand. It is clear that a significant part of the wounded could already return to duty and fight again.
The losses of the ROV reported by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are real, but they concern not only the Russian regular army. Of course, Russia still has enough human resources to continue fighting. In order for them to have problems with holding positions, it is necessary to destroy at least 1300-1500 invaders within a day. Then they will not be able to quickly compensate for the losses.
Their regular army is exhausted, but it is there and is preparing for new battles. The enemy was and remains dangerous. All the talk about “chmons” and “mobs” is for those who are afraid of being left without their favorite coffee in the rear. And on the battlefield, any fool with a weapon is dangerous. It needs to be destroyed, and this requires a lot more resources, concludes Stanislav Bezushko.
