Publication author
Dmitry Ratnikov
Even in Russia, there are no those who still do not understand that their so-called “SVO” did not go according to plan. Read more in the exclusive blog for Channel 24 website.
Soon the refrigerator in Russia will win the TV
“Kyiv in three days” has turned into a year of heavy dragging war, which has already led to large irreparable losses, complete isolation and in the future will lead to a probable regime change with a very realistic scenario of the collapse of the country.
Massive shelling of Ukraine's energy infrastructure, prompted by Russia's desire to compensate for the lack of positive news from the front, also failed. It was not possible to freeze the Ukrainians, as well as to conquer Ukraine. For each missile attack on energy facilities, we responded to the discovery of a new point of invincibility.
Only in the Desnyansky district of the capital, almost a hundred points of invincibility have been opened, two of which are generally the largest in Ukraine. And as of today, in most regions of Ukraine there is no longer a shortage of electricity. Even Russian propaganda admits the failure of the plan to destroy the Ukrainian energy system, which cost billions of dollars wasted from the Russian budget.
The fall of the Russian regime will accelerate as ordinary citizens of Russia realize the senseless squandering of funds that could have built thousands of schools, hundreds of medical clinics, purchased tens of thousands of ambulances, repaired thousands of kilometers of roads and brought civilization to hundreds or thousands of homes throughout its territory. largest country in the world.
Together with the introduction of the most severe sanctions in the history of the existence of the sanctions, the process of the collapse of Russia seems obvious. For now, it's only a matter of time. The senseless “SVO”, without bringing a single positive result, wins back on the wallets of impoverished Russians, so that gradually “the refrigerator will begin to win over the TV.”
The Russian dictator's recent address to the Federal Assembly only confirms once again that he is in the “zugzwang” position on the political chessboard. Each subsequent step without options will aggravate the situation.
How Ukraine changed the world agenda
Russian society is beginning to lose faith in a victorious ending, and dissatisfied moods can provoke periods of unrest and riots that have historically continued on the territory of Russia over the past centuries. This is exactly what the Kremlin is so afraid of. At the same time, I can say without exaggeration that now Ukraine has not only entered the world agenda, but also largely determines it:
- Thanks to the powerful work of the team of the President of Ukraine on the diplomatic front, the G20 has de facto become the G19, getting rid of Russia and its voice in the process of joint decision-making.
- The United States adopted the state budget for 2023, which includes funds for the production and supply of weapons for Ukraine under lend-lease.
- A series of international meetings in the Rammstein format led to a change in the position of the German political establishment, which until now has actively resisted the process of transferring tanks and heavy weapons to Ukraine. Bloomberg estimated that the Allies have provided more than 4,000 pieces of armored vehicles, artillery pieces and other weapons systems to Ukraine, and the most powerful NATO members are sending the best weapons to the Alliance to fight the Russian aggressor.
- In addition, for the first time in history, the incumbent US President Joseph Biden visited a war zone not controlled by the US military. This testifies not only to the political support of Ukraine by the United States, but also to the establishment of a qualitatively new level of relations between our countries.
Kyiv's task for 2023
However, Ukraine has something to work on in 2023. Our “homework” remains to keep the focus on Russian aggression so that no other world leader wants to save “Putin's face”. Ukraine must prevent the dominance of pro-Russian narratives in the Western space about “war fatigue” and the spread of anti-Ukrainian rhetoric among foreign media and parties that are still under the financial influence of Russia.
In turn, we should focus on bringing Russia's top leadership to the international tribunal and restoring our state through compensation for damages, the total amount of which is known only approximately. According to Prime Minister Denis Shmyhal, this figure has already reached $600-750 billion.
It should not be forgotten that Russia is still a member of the UN Security Council, although the legitimacy of its status in this respected organization is a debatable issue. At the same time, Russia is in the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly. US Ambassador to the OSCE Michael Carpenter stated that there is no mechanism within the OSCE to exclude its members. However, this platform should be intensively used to isolate representatives of Russia and intensify support for Ukraine among other countries.
It should be understood that the exclusion and total isolation of our enemy everywhere – from the Olympic Games to powerful world organizations – should become the main vector of Ukrainian diplomacy in the near future. This should take place on a level with the receipt of new military assistance, primarily aircraft, long-range weapons, heavy armored vehicles and missile defense systems from partner countries.
Activation of India against the backdrop of Russia's problems
Despite the introduction of yet another package of sanctions against Russia and a significant limitation because of this, the volume of exports of its main trading positions (oil, gas, minerals), active direct or indirect support for its economy continues from a number of countries of the world. While Iran helps Russia with the supply of weapons, China and India continue to trade with Russia, sometimes in competition with each other.
If you move away from contemplating this through the prism of the Russian-Ukrainian war, then you can see how India is gradually beginning to compete economically with China, and he is trying to resist. This is perfectly demonstrated by the American corporation Apple, which is moving its factories from China to India, and it is not by chance that the summit of the heads of the G19 countries this year will take place in India.
Recall that US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken noted that China is considering the possibility of supplying weapons and ammunition to Russia for the war in Ukraine. In all likelihood, the PRC will try to open the Asian front, which could force the US into conflict and shift the focus away from the war in Ukraine. This is because the new Western weapons that come or need in Ukraine contain hundreds of chips, a significant part of which is produced in Taiwan and in some places in other Asian states.
This confrontation is much deeper than it seems: the US and China are competing for control of the South China Sea, Beijing is seeking to seize the main logistics routes in the Pacific Ocean, which poses a direct threat to the national security of the US and other states in the region. And let's not forget that Chinese President Xi Jinping has not yet condemned (on behalf of the state) Russia's invasion of Ukraine. He publicly maintains neutrality and calls for peace in the published settlement plan, which, unfortunately, does not contain a clause on the complete withdrawal of the aggressor's troops from the territory of Ukraine.
After the victory, Ukraine must control Russian resources
Already now we should think about what kind of Russia will suit us after our victory: just capitulating, or one that will be divided into several dozen subjects? You can often hear that the division of Russia into new state formations is of no interest to our partners because of the allegedly possible spread of nuclear weapons in the world. However, there were no such statements from political leaders and officials and, accordingly, there is no unanimity in the position of the future of Russia among the collective West.
Therefore, it makes sense to propose and consistently defend an option that unites the interests of Ukraine and at the same time our partners: the establishment of joint control over the nuclear arsenals and natural resources of defeated Russia. The means to ensure this control must be “shared” by the losers.
Thus, Russian gas, oil, coal, deposits of ores and metals should be controlled by Ukrainian and Western companies, and the profits from their use should go to the restoration of the Ukrainian state.
The victors not only write history, but also must nullify all the possibilities of the enemy's revenge. To do this, now it is necessary to ensure the tightening of sanctions in the energy sector and work out in detail the mechanism of control over the economy of the defeated aggressor. For future international security, everything possible must be done to create conditions and scenarios under which Russia will cease to pose a threat to the entire civilized world. This will be the final surrender of the empire.
