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In Russia, a protest can break out at any moment. Public resistance is likely to start spontaneously, without specific political leaders.
Each protest is unique in the course of events, therefore it has its own distinct characteristics. Channel 24 was told by Russian political scientist Abbas Gallyamov.
The protest must be unique
The expert noted that < strong>lack of leaders likely Russian protest is a problem, but at the same time, one cannot say that this “completely closes the possibility for protest or revolution”.
The main thing is not the leaders, but when the feeling arises< /strong> , that the authorities have simply become insolent completely, with a parallel feeling that the authorities make mistakes, weaken, lose, and in principle the struggle makes sense. When these two stories are superimposed on each other by the results of events, then there will be a protest,” the browser explained.
According to him, any the flow of protest events is unique . He must evoke emotions that must be shown as a result of public unity.
History knows how revolutions are prepared, led and guided by someone. In Russia in 1917 there was a professional class of revolutionaries that had been preparing a revolution for more than two decades. It was the same in the French Revolution: there were people who organized and led everything. And there were revolutions in China and Mexicowhich were absolutely spontaneous,” the political scientist added.
When protests start in Russia: watch the video
“Russian rebellion”
The analyst said that Russia had protests initiated by Navalny's headquarters, which came out of the blue” .
Namely, after the film “He is not Dimon to you,” tens of thousands of people took to the streets across the country. And there were quite spontaneous protests, like the Furgal protest in Khabarovsk or in Shiyes, where at first everything was spontaneous, but then people began to organize themselves during the events,” he pointed out.
In his opinion, there were also “intermediate options” , in particular, the Moscow protest of 2019 during the elections to the Moscow City Duma.
“For more than two months, Muscovites” put the city on their ears. “At first everything was spontaneous, but then they appeared leaders, and the protest became more organized. People came out at the call of specific leaders,” Gallyamov stressed.
The example of Iran
An expert is convinced that a spontaneous public outburst in Iran is indicative of a possible situation with protests in Russia.
“Country 10 blazes for days for a private reason: one completely unknown girl was beaten to death by the “morality police” and iran woke up… This seems to be a revolutionary situation. It is significant that such a strong riot broke out on a completely random occasion. No one could predict it, “the observer believes.
According to him, Iranian public opinion is mature, dissatisfaction has been gathering for years , and at some point there was a formal reason for action.
In the case of Russia can be said that the situation itself is pre-revolutionary: the tops cannot govern the country in the old fashioned way, and the bottoms no longer want to. But when and at what moment it will break out is unknown. A society in a “mature” state can wait a long time, boil, and then at some point “break through,” Gallyamov summed up.
The situation in Russia: what is known
- On September 21, the head of the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin, signed a decree on partial mobilization in Russia. The Kremlin plans to mobilize up to 300 thousand people behind it.
- Everyone was intrigued by the 7th secret point. The dictator's speaker, Dmitry Peskov, made it clear that he was referring to the number of mobilized. Subsequently, it became known that Moscow wants to mobilize up to a million people, however, according to media reports, the Kremlin plans to call up more than 1.2 million Russians.
- After the announcement of the decision to mobilize, a few protests took place in a number of Russian cities: protesters were detained , the rest dispersed. The prosecutor's office is proactive and threatens protesters under the age of 15.
- The largest rallies these days are taking place in the Russian part of the Caucasus, including in Dagestan. Protesters demand that the security forces release all those detained at anti-mobilization rallies. Locals announced new large-scale protests.
