Macron has a real chance of winning, but change should be checked for France/WSWS
In the 2nd round of the presidential elections in France, Macron and Le Pen will fight. Recall that the 2nd round will be held on April 24
2nd round of elections in France
About Mélenchon's second attempt in 5 years, the revision of the political course from Macron and Putin's model of presidency from Le Pen – said the candidate of political sciences, international journalist Maxim Sokolov exclusively from French Lyon for Channel 24 website.
Maxim Sokolov, candidate of political sciences
Macron or Le Pen, what will be your forecast , Maxim?
Obviously Macron.
How will Le Pen's chances be affected by the fraud charge?
Of course, this story has been going on since 2017 of the year. And then there was no change. The prosecutor's office is studying and can teach for a long time. If it comes to real accusations, then only after the 2nd round. Its supporters will definitely not be affected, because the accusations are made by the EU, which they do not like and do not trust.
And those who reflect may turn away, but it certainly will not be a mass phenomenon that will affect the outcome of the elections. In general, for the average Frenchman, this story of the waste of EU funds is not interesting. It was removed during the 2017 elections and now.
What did the first round show?
Maxim, please summarize the first round.
He got off unexpectedly interesting. Especially its second part. Macron himself did not declare himself a candidate in the run-up to the election for a very long time. Pulling to the last in an attempt to calculate the best moment to enter the election campaign.
At the same time, he actively behaved in the international arena. As we remember, this was the period of the pre-war state. There were already Russian troops on our border. At this time, the French president was actively engaged in foreign policy – he went to Putin, to Zelensky. He counted on the fact that such an active foreign policy activity would bring some bonuses before the elections. The French guarantor hoped to the last to become a super-peacemaker who managed to stop the war a step away from its start.
Having received international recognition and the status of a peacemaker, he could start the election campaign profitably. However, this did not work. The war has begun. At the same time, problems began in France itself.
Gasoline prices rose, society became nervous and began to express its indignation. The owner of the Elysee Palace had to urgently return to the urgent problems of the domestic policy of his state.
He began by lowering excise taxes at gas stations. And so, when the election race began, it turned out that Macron's rating had fallen. It happened just against the backdrop of rising fuel prices and high, as for France, inflation. Everything else began to rise in prices for food in supermarkets.
It was in this position that Macron entered the fight. While Macron was losing interest, his opponents just focused on social problems: inflation, wages, pension and other socially oriented reforms.
Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon just emphasized this. Separately, there was Eric Zemur, who had 14% before the first round. The latter made very radical calls, such as that France should end Islamism and so on.
Another share of the radicals were Le Pen fans – 16-17%.
The third candidate, among whose voters were the French were radical, was Jean-Luc Mélenchon. The indicator of his electoral support was approximately 12-13%.
Thus, we see that the radical part of the voters scattered among the three contenders for the presidency.
In the end, it was Le Pen who managed to gather all these voters around him. She convinced them to vote for her because in the last stage of the first round, Zemur's voters, who supported him so actively, eventually went over to Le Pen and she was able to gain those 23% in the first round.
It should be noted that the leader of the right got the most moderate share of Zemur's voters. His most radical supporters stayed with him. Plus, it pulled away from the moderate Valerie Pacres of the Republican Party those voters who were not sufficiently satisfied with Pecres's radicalism. She rather positioned herself as a conservative centrist. For, as the French say.
This is how we entered the second round. When Le Pen pulled over almost all the ultra-right and right, and centrists, moderate leftists and social democrats voted for Macron.
In the first round, the phenomenon of Jean-Luc Mélenchon appeared, gaining more than 20%. This is such a grandfather who probably still remembers Lenin with Marx and Engels. He is already 70 years old. He is a very talented politician, orator, his tongue is suspended. Gives speeches that are very attractive to the people. At the same time, he also managed to captivate a proportion of young people. Students aged 18 to 24 who have chosen intellectual professions such as journalists, political scientists, etc.
That is, more than 25% of Mélenchon voters are young people. Not only working youth who are fond of leftist or ultra-left ideas in order to receive some handouts from the state. Payments, pensions, etc.
The really intellectual elite of France took the side of the elderly candidate. It seems that the country has returned to 1968 again, when Mao was read at the Sorbonne.
This is the paradox of Mélenchon. Compared to the elections held 10 years ago, his success is astounding. Then he scored 11%, and now it's more than 20%.
And now, moving on to the second round, we will see that the main task for Macron, firstly, is to convince those who did not come to the polls. And these are many. With a turnout of 70%, about 25% definitely did not come to the polls on the day of voting in the first round.
In France, there is a very big problem with absenteeism (avoidance of citizens from voting in elections) . From year to year, its percentage is steadily growing. A new record was set this year.
Macron's second task will be to convince Mélenchon's voters to give preference to him . Now, according to polls that were conducted after the first round, more than a third of Mélanchamp's voters are ready to vote for Macron. However, half of them have not yet decided
For Le Pen, the task is the same. Convince the absenteeists and gather everyone who can be on the flank of the ultra-right-right. Additionally, to compete for the ultra-left, who did not vote for Macron for some reason.
Which of the outsiders will support Macron, and who will support Le Pen?
Officially, Macron was supported by almost everyone. This is the leader of the greens Yanik Jadot and the leader of the socialists Anne Hidalgo and Valerie Pekres herself and Sarkozy with Hollande. In principle, almost all politicians are on the side of Macron.
True, some of the Republican politicians said they would vote for Le Pen, despite Pecres' call to support Macron. These are the extreme elements of this party, gravitating towards the far right. Among them are characters such as Eric Ciotti and his team, in fact, pro-Putin.
What is the reason for softening Le Pen's rhetoric?
Somewhere from the age of 10, she entered the third round. Then she stood on very tough anti-European, anti-NATO and anti-Islamic positions. This is the essence of her party, founded by her father, Jean Marie Le Pen. The political force was racist, anti-Semitic, anti-Islamic.
All the xenophobes are there. Here she came third with these slogans at that time. Having understood what needs to be changed, she was already different in the 2017 elections. This allowed them to advance to the second round. She was still a Eurosceptic, but more moderate. She didn't have enough votes anyway. People remembered what slogans Le Pen started with, and they simply did not believe her.
The meeting between Putin and Le Pen in 2017 year/Photo aa.com.tr
Now she has drawn serious conclusions from that defeat. After a very deep analysis of her mistakes, she paid good political technologists who carried out a total restructuring of her party. They even changed their name. There used to be the “National Front”, and now the “National Association”.
You can see how Le Pen began to move closer to the center. Became moderate right. This is reflected in all its current slogans. No more talk about leaving the EU. But there are statements about the need to restructure the bloc in accordance with Le Pen's vision. She wants to decentralize the European Union and weaken the decision-making center in Brussels. Thus, it plays into the hands of Putin.
The same transformation of rhetoric happened in the context of attitudes towards NATO. If earlier Le Pen insisted on a complete withdrawal from the Alliance, citing her unwillingness to be subordinate to Washington, now she is talking about withdrawing only from the military association, as De Gaulle once did.
At the same time, this will allow to remain in the political bloc, thus blocking the entry of Ukraine at the request of the Kremlin.
The same situation with the euro area. When Macron's rival wanted to return to the franc, which she got very burned out on. Now she doesn't want it.
In addition, today we see how Le Pen exploits the issues of raising social standards and, in general, demonstrates concern for the well-being of the population. This once again expresses his populist essence.
For example, he wants to reduce excise taxes on fuel from 20% to 5.5%. This will automatically reduce the cost of gasoline by 15%. She goes on to propose not to levy income tax on people who are under 30 years old.
This is an absolutely populist thing, because there is a huge budget deficit.
In France, the budget just consists of taxes only. In addition, she made a proposal to reduce the retirement age to 62 years. And people like all this.
Mélenchon will still show himself?
He will be able to seriously compete with his opponents at the age of 75. It is quite possible that in 5 years he will enter the second round along with Le Pen, for example. Such a development of events is possible provided that the latter also loses this time and if the centrists do not present their candidate, who could become a worthy opponent of Mélenchon.
Candidates' metamorphoses
What review of the course was Macron talking about recently?
He is ready to make concessions on the issue of pension reform. He says that the increase in the retirement age will be phased in over a decade. Every year he wants to raise for 3 months.
He convinces young people that his labor market reform, on the contrary, will help them find work faster. He insists that the renewal of the labor market will provide more opportunities for the realization of the plans of the young population.
So he makes a tactical shift to the left. This is done due to the need at this stage. I do not rule out that the French leader, when he wins, will revise his plans a little.
However, by this time, without winning the left electorate, he will not be able to defeat Le Pen. That is why Macron takes this forced step to the left.
The first results of this shift are already there. Three days after the decision to move somewhat to the left at the end of the first round, 1% has already increased to the rating of the incumbent president. Thus, now the balance of power is largely in his favor (54%46%). By continuing like this, Macron will be guaranteed another 5% and thus give himself a more serious chance of winning. The main thing is that now there should not be some kind of gross mistake on his part that would deprive people of affection.
And what about Le Pen's interest?
She, on the contrary, began to lose the sympathy of voters because of her frivolous statements. Instead of acting very cautiously, the right-wing populist now immediately began to make mistakes.
Proposed a constitutional reform that would provide for an increase in the presidential term to 7 years without the right to be elected. It looks like politics copied this approach from its mastermind in the Kremlin.
Such a proposal looks very strange at a time when democratic countries, on the contrary, each time reduce the period of stay of heads of state in power.
This has already happened in France. Starting from the time of De Gaulle, right up to the constitutional reform of 2002, then the term was reduced from 7 to 5.
Explaining the need to increase the number of years in power, the populist appeals to the fact that 5 years is not enough for implementation of all planned plans. Given that she is unlikely to be re-elected later, this option looks good for her.
She will do such a thing in 7 years that she will definitely not see re-election.
Secondly, she proposes a proportional system of parliamentary elections. In recent years, the country has had a two-round majoritarian system. When the first round is a competition of many (10-12) games, and the first and second places go to the second round.
And here are the games of Le Pen, because of her far-right orientation, there was no chance to get to the 2nd round . And even when her party members went there, they always lost.
She wants to break this system. It is very important for her that during her presidency she can secure a majority in parliament.
A proportional voting system based on party lists will open the way for a powerful populist faction. Then you can carry out your policy. Again, in this case, Le Pen wants to change the constitution for himself.
The third point is an attempt to introduce a tracing-paper from the system of the supremacy of domestic law over international law. The populist candidate is now proposing the same thing.
The last thing that worries me most is the desire to cover their interests with the will of the people. She wants to launch a citizen-initiated referendum, which will be given the exclusive right to change the fundamental law. It means taking away such a prerogative from the National Assembly.
For the French, who are used to not worrying about anything, living in a comfortable world and hoping for the smooth operation of the system, it is dangerous to trust such serious things as changing the constitution.
I think that Le Pen is now trying to show his real face to society and show what it will actually do. I hope that people will have the insight to understand her evil intentions.
I almost forgot another mistake Le Pen: she announced that she would ban the hijab in public places. Of course, this is a calculation to attract the voices of the French, dissatisfied with Islamization, but at the same time distracts not only Muslim voters, but also supporters of leftist parties professing the ideas of internationalism, multiculturalism, etc.
