The situation along the entire front line remains difficult, and Russian troops, albeit little by little, are advancing and occupying more and more Ukrainian territories along with settlements where people lived just a few years ago.
The Kurakhovskoye, Pokrovskoye and Kupyansk directions are especially difficult. The Kursk region, where the Ukrainian Defense Forces are conducting an operation, is somewhat different from them.
And in order to understand what is happening on the front line and what changes have occurred on the front — ICTV Facts talked to a veteran of the Russian-Ukrainian war, military analyst Evgeny Dikiy.
Now watching
- Kupyansk direction
- Kherson direction and islands in the Dnieper
- Kurakhovskoye and Pokrovskoe directions
- Chasov Yar
- Kursk direction
Kupyanskoye direction
According to the expert, today along the entire front line there are physically not enough people to hold positions. This, in particular, determines the slow but constant advance of the enemy.
And today, according to Diky, one of the most difficult situations is precisely the Kupyansk direction, which is in the Kharkiv region. In this section of the front, the enemy feels our weakness the most, says the expert, and therefore in this direction there is one of the most successful Russian offensives in recent times“.
Judging by open sources, today the Russians are trying to align themselves along the Oskol River from the south and north of Kupyansk, as well as create bridgeheads on the opposite bank, in order to then outflank the city.
It is noteworthy that Kupyansk, which was liberated from Russian occupation in the fall of 2022, is an important logistical point in the Kharkiv region.
— Today, we are trying to build a defense along the Oskol River, to use it as an obstacle, and it is not going well, to be honest, since the Russians are constantly forcing this river. We destroy most of the groups that force it, but if they manage to force it somewhere, it means that none of ours are there. And the enemy is gaining a foothold there, — explains Dikiy.
This forces Ukrainian troops to redeploy their forces in order to knock out these bridgeheads, and during this “two new” bridgeheads of the enemy appear.
— And in fact, the situation there, frankly speaking, is very bad. The city of Kupyansk risks becoming the first Ukrainian city to fall under Russian occupation for the second time, — says Evgeniy Dikiy.
Kharkivshchyna, on the surface of Kup'yanska/Infographics: our website
Senkova, on the day of Kup'yanska/Infographics: our website
The military analyst recalls that when Kupyansk was de-occupied, it was a rear city, and Ukrainian troops were stationed about 20 kilometers to the east. However, now there is heavy fighting around the city again.
— That's what's happening there. And it's happening for one simple reason. There simply aren't enough people, there's no one to hold that defense there. In particular, along the Oskol this is especially noticeable. This is a very good illustration of that (lack of people, — Ed.). That is, they are simply forcing their way in small groups in many places at the same time. We manage to eliminate most of these groups, but we simply don’t have time to do so because we physically don’t have the people to build positions along the Oskol, the expert points out.
In his opinion, the Ukrainian Defense Forces in this direction have to “run back and forth”to “plug holes”.
Kherson direction and the islands in the Dnieper
Regarding the Kherson direction, which was relatively quiet compared to others, Yevgeny Dyky points out the problem with the threat of losing the islands in the middle of the Dnieper River. He notes that it was there that the Russians began active fighting in order to displace the Ukrainian troops from the islands.
— Not so long ago, on the contrary, we tried to hold and develop a bridgehead there (probably, we are talking about the bridgehead in Krynki, — Ed.). And even though we had to leave the bridgehead, but the islands have been ours in fact since the fall of 2022. This is how Kherson and the right-bank Kherson region were liberated. Our troops walked around on the islands there absolutely freely, although it was a gray zone. We didn't consolidate anywhere there because the artillery would have reached us, says the expert.
At the same time, the Russians are unlikely to land on the right bank of the Kherson region in this direction.
— They won't give us such a gift. That would be a really cool suicide, but their generals shouldn't be considered complete idiots. They learn from their mistakes, — says the expert.
According to Dikiy, due to the fact that the Ukrainian Defense Forces, in particular, the Special Operations Forces (SOF) regularly carried out raids on enemy positions using the Dnieper Islands, now, if the enemy takes control of these islands, where it allows the enemy to place artillery on these islands and hit the positions of the Ukrainian military.
Moreover, Russian control of the islands will free up some of the people who had to control the river bank before, so that they can then throw these forces in other directions.
— They took the most from the Kherson region. In fact, three divisions from the Kherson region were transferred to the Kursk region, — recalls the expert.
Kurakhovskoye and Pokrovskoye directions
If we talk about the city of Kurakhovo, then there is a threat of encirclement for the Ukrainian military due to the advance of Russian troops from the south and north.
— Yes, this threat (of encirclement, — Ed..) exists, especially if Velikaya Novosyolka falls. If it is not possible to take Velikaya Novosyolka, this threat will be very real. But despite the fact that, in addition to the fact that the Russians are creating a threat of encirclement of Kurakhovo, I will remind you that fighting is already underway in Kurakhovo itself. Not on the approaches, but actually already on the streets of the city. That is, there is both a frontal assault on Kurakhovo and an attempt to outflank it, — the expert explains.
But, Evgeny Dikiy continues, the Kurakhovo direction is connected with the offensive of the Russian Federation in the Pokrovsk direction.
— I would not distinguish much between the Pokrovsk and Kurakhovsk directions. This is, in principle, one line, where it seems like a pendulum all the time. Here they are trying to break through in the direction of Pokrovsk. When they get hit in the head, they increase the pressure on Kurakhovskoye. When we transfer reserves to Kurakhovo, then, on the contrary, they begin to storm again directly on Pokrovsk.
That is, they have one group there, which is precisely managed operationally on the spot. It's like in boxing: they hit with the right hand and the left hand. They hit Kurakhovo, then they hit Pokrovsk, — the expert explains.
This is explained, in particular, by the fact that Ukraine really does have limited reserves in people, so the Ukrainian side cannot simultaneously respond strongly to the Russian military in both directions, says Dikiy.
ICTV Live Latest News The loss of Russian bases in Syria will affect its ability to carry out operations in Africa – ISW
Map of military operations on December 9, 2024 – situation on the front
Umerov and Austin discussed the next meeting in the Ramstein format
Erdogan: The world is changing, the next 2-3 months are very important
$200 billion and 700 thousand troops: Austin named the losses of the Russian Federation in the war in Ukraine
Kurakhivsky and Pokrovsky direct/Infographics: our website
In particular, the enemy seems to have changed its mind about attacking the city of Pokrovsk directly and is trying to outflank the city.
However, as Dikiy points out, even if there are fortifications on the flanks of Pokrovsk, it is not a fact that there will be people who are capable of defending these fortifications
— Even if they (the fortifications, — Ed.) dig them up well, and I believe that they will, they will not hold out without people, — says the analyst.
Chasov Yar
But there is also the illustrative example of Chasov Yar, where the city, in which urban battles are already taking place, stands and holds the line against the enemy.
As Evgeny Diky says, the battles there are taking place directly in residential areas, which is the strong point of the Ukrainian troops.
— The fighting has been going on for a long time in the city itself, in residential areas, for a long time, not for the first month… In fact, we are very strong in street fighting. These are very difficult battles for those who lead them. Those of our defenders, both male and female, who have to lead these street battles there, know what happens when the fighting continues not even for individual houses, but for individual entrances in one house, — the expert explains.
Infographics: our website
However, despite the stability in this direction, the war veteran continues, there is “real hell” there.
— But objectively it looks like we are always very strong in these street battles. And it is precisely in these street battles that we always have a better ratio of losses — of ours compared to the Russians. Remember Bakhmut, Avdiivka, where the loss ratio reached 1 to 10, 1 to 12. There is a similar story in Chasovy Yar, — says the expert.
Kursk direction
The situation in Kursk region is separate and different from all the others, where there is a maneuver war, and not a defensive one, as in Ukraine.
— In Kursk region, the war is very different from what we were talking about. From Kupyansk to Zaporozhye, it is one continuous front, but in Kursk region the picture is completely different. Not in the sense that the fighting is less intense there. The fighting there is no less intense. But there is no front line there. There, it is not a trench war, but a maneuver war, — he says.
He explains that the Kursk region is a wooded area, and therefore the fighting is “plus or minus” similar to what happened “in the spring of 2022, for example, in the Kiev region or Zhitomir region”
— And in this maneuver war we are very strong. There are public figures about how many forces we have and the enemy has there: our defenders are 10,000 strong, and they are successfully holding back 60,000 Russians. That is, even if the only thing they were doing there was holding them back, that would already be a very important combat mission. But in reality that is not the case, because they are also grinding them down, — explains Dikiy.
According to the analyst, in the Kursk region “there is definitely no point in looking at Deepstate maps”, because they do not correspond to the situation on the ground.
— There is no continuous front line, there are separate strongholds of the parties, and between them there are huge gray zones, wooded terrain and there the parties are constantly… for example, the Russians are advancing on Sudzha, really advancing. And at the same time, they are being penetrated from the rear, hit in the rear and on the flanks. And both sides are trying to penetrate each other's rear and flanks. But we are doing it much better,— explains the war veteran.
According to him, in this maneuver war one can see a clear example of the fact that “in general, our troop control is still an order of magnitude higher than that of the Russians”.
— And as a result, in these maneuver operations we are grinding down the Russians in their attempts to supposedly liberate territories. But there the Russians can't dislodge us from them, because we don't hold on to it. So we let them advance, and then we go around and destroy them, — he adds.
According to Diky, Ukraine should continue the Kursk operation as long as possible.
At the same time, the expert admits that the Russians were able to gain a foothold in the Glushkovsky district. In the past, this section of the Kursk region of the Russian Federation was called cut off by a river, and therefore Ukraine will be able to strengthen control there, since the Russians will have problems with logistics.
— Unfortunately, they held on there. Most likely, everything again came down to the fact that in order to further develop our initial successes, there simply weren’t enough people. Again, this is my personal assessment, — said the military analyst.
Evgeny Diky also links the success at the beginning of the Kursk operation with the fact that in June and July Ukraine had positive shifts in the issue of mobilization resources. However, as of today, there are no people to develop this operation.
