Italy is waiting for a change of power. On September 25, the Italians will elect the deputies of the two chambers of parliament. After the constitutional referendum, the chambers will be halved to 400 members in the Chamber of Deputies and 200 in the Senate. The results of the vote can have a decisive impact on Italy's foreign policy, including support for Ukraine in the context of the war against Russia.
In Channel 24, we will consider the potential consequences of the elections and why the political career of pro-Russian politician Matteo Salvini is on the wane.
Parliamentary elections: waiting for the victory of the right
Two weeks before the elections, the right-wing parties received 45% of the vote, significantly outperforming the left-wing parties from 22%. According to Politico, this election could result in a right-wing coalition that will include:
- the far-right Brothers of Italy (25%), led by Giorgio Meloni,
- anti-immigrant “League” by Matteo Salvini (13% support),
- Forza Italia by Silvio Berlusconi (7%),
In general, the right will receive 45%. The left, led by the Democratic Party, will get 22%, while the populist Five Star Movement (M5S) could get 13%.
Pay attention! The snap election was called after the resignation of the prime minister Italy Mario Draghi in July. This came after three parties withdrew from the coalition of national unity and plunged Italy into uncertainty. Moreover, the country is facing economic turmoil, inflation and a record drought.
Draghi's tenure at the head of Italy's government of national unity was a period of relative stability and economic recovery. However, the anti-establishment Five Star Movement withdrew from the coalition, with Liga and Forza Italia following.
Georgia Meloni increased voter support by promising to cut taxes and bureaucracy and increase defense spending. The “Brothers of Italy” are also promoting the usual rhetoric of the European far right: to close the borders of Italy from illegal immigrants to protect the country from “Islamization”, to revise European treaties in order to return more power to Rome from Brussels.
Lack of unity among the right
However, there is no unity in this expected coalition. The right is deeply divided over Russia's war against Ukraine, with Meloni backing arms sales to Ukraine, and Salvini, a long-time Putin fan, pushing for an easing of Western sanctions against Moscow.
The Draghi government has played an important role in supporting Ukraine in the European Union and NATO. The elections should determine whether the next Italian government will be unwavering in its support for Ukraine and opposition to Russian military aggression. Prime Minister Mario Draghi has been a strong supporter of Ukraine's fight against the Russians. Therefore, allies in NATO and the EU are concerned that the right-wing government may soften Italy's position towards Russia and its war of conquest.
What is the support of parties in Italy/Politico
“Brothers of Italy” promise to keep Ukraine's support
Rights and the national-conservative Brothers of Italy party, leading in the polls in the upcoming elections, have pledged to support Ukraine and preserve the foreign policy of the Draghi government. Leading members of Meloni's party assured that the Brothers of Italy government would be tougher on Putin's aggression than Draghi's government. The importance of Ukraine for the “Brothers of Italy” is confirmed by the recent visit of one of the leading politicians of the party – Adolfo Urso to Kyiv.
However, the presence of the League party in the future government causes concern. While waiting for the opportunity to get into the government along with other right-wing forces, Salvini did not take long to comment on the sanctions imposed on Russia.
“They are apparently ill-conceived. The sanctions were supposed to bring Russia to its knees. In half a year, the opposite is true. Therefore, I consider it normal to review them. The sanctions should be reviewed in Brussels,” Salvini said. The political figure of Salvini is determined by his excessive passion for Putin. Therefore, it is not surprising that he often supported Russian narratives in Italy and the European Parliament. We will consider his political position in more detail later.
Russia's influence on the fall of the Draghi government
Chaos in Europe and in Italy in particular is beneficial to the Kremlin. The Italian media began to look for the Russian trace in the political crisis. The influence of Russia on the fall of the Draghi government was written by Open Online. And the likelihood of Moscow's interference in internal affairs was mentioned by Judge Carlo Nordio, a candidate from the “Brothers of Italy” for the presidency of the Republic. He vehemently opposes Georgia Maloney's allies:
“I was frightened by the words of Berlusconi and Salvini, who became a kind of support for Putin. Russian aggression against Ukraine is insane, criminal and unjustified. It would be unacceptable for the government not to support the Draghi line in foreign policy, that is, to support Ukraine without “ifs” and “buts” .
Nordio clarified that there was no direct evidence of Russian interference, but he noted “matches that have become serious, precise and consistent.”
Intelligence report about the meeting with the Russians to overthrow the Draghi government
According to Italian media, a leaked intelligence report said that in May 2022, a Salvini aide spoke with Russian embassy officer Oleg Kostyukov about an attempt to overthrow Draghi's government. For example, the newspaper La Stampa reported that a diplomat from the Russian embassy met with one of Salvini's aides in Rome in late May and asked if any of Salvini's League ministers intended to resign from Draghi's coalition. It is noted that the meeting took place exactly at the time when Salvini was criticized for conducting “parallel diplomacy with Russia” regarding the war in Ukraine. Analysts believe that the “leakage” of information comes from foreign intelligence. Salvini also dismissed this information as “nonsense”.
Then Foreign Minister Luigi di Maio condemned “an attempt by the Russian side to force the minister of the “League” to withdraw from the government of Draghi.” Salvini “must explain his relationship with Russia,” said Di Maio, who, like Draghi, is a strong supporter of EU sanctions against Moscow, Italy's arming of Ukraine and financial support for Kyiv.
Whether or not there is direct evidence of Moscow's interference in the political process in Italy, the League withdrew from the government along with Berlusconi's party and the populist Five Star Movement, forcing Mario Draghi to resign and trigger a snap election.
In addition, the Italian media write that the Kremlin is helping the far right's election campaigns by pushing thousands of migrants to Italy from Libya. The Wagnerites are allegedly behind this operation. They are deployed in the Cyrenaica region to provide support for the Libyan commander Khalifa Haftar. However, officially the Italian authorities have not filed any charges of such manipulations.
Italian politician in a T-shirt with Putin's face
Before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Salvini was an outspoken and ardent admirer of Putin, posing ostentatiously on Red Square in Moscow wearing a T-shirt depicting the Russian dictator. The League opposed sanctions against Russia after the annexation of Crimea in 2014, arguing that it could harm Italian exports.
Salvini has worn a Putin-faced T-shirt twice, in particular in the European Parliament, saying that “Putin is more democratic than the EU.” In 2017, the League also signed a cooperation agreement with Putin's United Russia party. In 2019, Salvini called Putin “one of the best officials in the world.”
After the start of a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, Salvini found himself in a situation where he could no longer openly sing the praises of Putin. He condemned war and anger. The Italian right-wing leader even arrived in Przemysl in early March to help Ukrainian refugees. However, there he met criticism from the mayor of the city, Wojciech Bakun: “Let's go to the border and the refugee reception center and see what your friend Putin has done.”
Injection of Moscow money into right-wing parties in the EU
In the context of the upcoming elections in Italy and the growth of right-wing sentiments, new information has emerged about Russia's attempts to influence political processes in Europe. Politico published information that the US State Department believes that since 2014 Russia has been injecting funds into political forces sympathetic to Moscow. Cash, totaling $300 million, was sent by the Russians to organizations and individual politicians around the world.
A diplomatic cable sent to the US embassy warned that the cash was sent to political forces that sympathize with the Kremlin. The State Department confirmed the existence of the telegram, but did not specify which countries and political forces are suspected of receiving Russian money.
State Department spokesman Ned Price described Russia's interference in the election as “trying to make it impossible for people around the world to choose the government that they think will best represent them, represent their interests, represent their values.” According to him, the US intends to expose Russian tactics by drawing attention to them and sharing information with allies.
This leak of information has led to a wave of speculation, accusations and objections in Italy. News of a US intelligence dossier detailing the Kremlin's covert $300 million international influence campaign has alarmed some forces and outraged others.
Suspicion of Russian influence could hurt the chances of right-wing or populist parties that have historically had close ties to Russia. And also to those politicians who rebroadcast Kremlin propaganda in their speeches.
Politicians of the left wing urged to name the persons and parties involved even before the vote. The leader of the centrist More Europe party, Benedetto Della Vedova, wrote that any funding from Moscow is “very serious and we need clarity on this before the vote.”
Salvini began to refute the suspicions falling on his party and declared that he was working on the development of Italy. Other of his sympathizers also began to separate from the Kremlin's money. Giuseppe Conte, leader of the 5 Star Movement, who opposes increased arms supplies to Ukraine, said his party is “transparent” and has nothing to do with the Russian funding scandal.
League and Salvini scandals around Moscow money
There was still a confirmed financial connection between Salvini and the Russians. The Russian embassy in Italy confirmed that it paid for Salvina's ticket to Moscow a few weeks ago, which he never used after public outrage.
However, the shadow of past Moscow-related scandals still hangs over Salvin. In 2019, BuzzFeed News received an audio recording of an October 18, 2018 meeting at the Metropol Hotel in Moscow, where Gianluca Savoini, a close and longtime aide of Matteo Salvini, and five other men, three Russians and two Italians, were present. We discussed the terms of a possible agreement on the secret transfer of about 65 million dollars of Russian oil money to Salvini's Liga party and its European election campaign.
The Italians agreed to benefit from the price game when selling oil ” Rosneft” to third parties through an intermediary. The Russian negotiators demanded a rollback in their favor.
At the time, Salvini's spokesman declined to answer a question about the meeting at the Metropol, calling the recording a “fantasy.” “I have never taken a ruble, or a euro, or a dollar, or a liter of vodka in Russia. I have already filed lawsuits in the past. I will do it now,” Matteo Salvini assured journalists, denying media reports that his party received funding from Russian investors.
Italian politician, colleague of Salvini, Gianluca Savoini, spoke on the tapes about the plan to “change Europe, which should become closer to Russia”.
On the recording, Savoini can be heard telling his colleagues that he was the “total liaison” between the Italian and Russian sides, and the other Italians were his partners. He mentioned “Alexander”, possibly Alexander Dugin, the well-known Russian far-right ideologist with whom Savoini was photographed the day before.
Savoini denied the financing of the “League” from Russia. He called the publication of the American portal “a political attack.” “We have never received even a ruble from anyone. These are just empty words,” the politician said. In an interview with Euronews, he said that he went to the Metropol Hotel to meet with Russian businessmen. That is, Salvini's associates confirmed his presence in the same Moscow hotel at the same time.
Salvini, whom the Russians enthusiastically called the “European Trump” on the same recording, did not attend the meeting himself, but at that time while he was in Moscow. There, he gave a speech condemning the sanctions against Russia as “economic, social and cultural absurdities” before meeting with Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Uozak and influential member of Putin's party Vladimir Pligin. The Metropol footage provided the first hard credible evidence of covert Russian attempts to fund ultra-right parties in the EU .
However, the relationship between Salvini's party and Moscow does not end there. In September of the same year, BuzzFeed, citing court materials, reported that Salvini's assistant Gianluca Savoini was in direct contact with Nyerre, a recruiter of militants for militants in the Donbass. Contacts included joint trips to Russia to participate in various events together with Russian right-wing radicals and militant leaders in the Donbass. The scandal rose loudly but quickly subsided, which led to widespread support for the populists by voters in Italy. It would be useful to recall that Salvini himself then held the position of Minister of the Interior.
Subsequently, in 2019, the Italian carabinieri, as part of an investigation into the participation of Italian citizens in the war in Donbass in the ranks of militants, conducted searches in several provinces and seized a lot of weapons.< /p>
Italian voters remember Salvini's commitment to Putin well, so it's not surprising that since the beginning of Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine, the rating of the League party has been steadily but surely falling. From 19% in January to 13% in September. And in the 2018 elections, Salvini's “League” party gained 37% of the vote.
It seems that the Italians figured out who Salvini was, so his career went down.
< p>Obviously, the trend is that those politicians who for many years were considered to be the conductors of Putin's interests in Italy will gradually leave the political scene. For example, in the context of the tense atmosphere within the left-wing populist 5 Star Movement between Giuseppe Conte and then Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio, the latter announced his withdrawal from the party and the creation of a new parliamentary group under his leadership.
Main Di Maio cited the ambiguity of the 5 Star Movement in his position on Russian military aggression in Ukraine as the reason for leaving the party:
Putin's crimes cannot be doubted. Now history is being created in Ukraine, and we, accordingly, need to take the right side in it.
Together with Di Maio, 60 deputies left the party. Thus, the populist party “5 Star Movement”, in particular its pro-Russian part, received a powerful blow.
Salvini, since the beginning of the large-scale invasion, could not utter the phrase “Russia attacked Ukraine”, hiding behind only “We on the side of the weak”, can also go to the cemetery of political corpses.
Moscow is losing its figure of influence in Italy.
Putin could count on Matteo Salvini's unshakable and useful support for many years. The leader of the “League” has repeatedly called for the lifting of EU sanctions against Russia. He called the annexation of Crimea legal, even visiting the occupied peninsula in 2016. For many years, Salvini often flew to Moscow.
Salvini criticized NATO and the EU's coordinated response to the Russian military intelligence attack with a nerve agent in Salisbury in March 2018.
Since that time, Salvini's value as an ally of Putin has greatly increased. After all, the transformation of the League from a small regional force in northern Italy into a nationwide far-right anti-immigrant party and its entry into the Italian government has given the Kremlin a serious leverage. Salvini took over as vice prime minister and interior minister when the League joined the coalition government.
However, a valuable ally and Trojan horse of the Kremlin in Europe is gradually losing its weight and ability to promote Moscow's narratives. It seems that if the right-wing forces win the elections in Italy, the League will join the coalition. However, with 13% of his party, Salvini will not be able to hope for the same important post that he held in the previous government.
How to maintain consolidation in Europe
Every time one of the Western politicians who support agreements with Moscow recalls the fatigue from sanctions or from the economic crisis associated with the war in Ukraine, the Russian occupying forces commit a new brutal war crime that shocks the world. Then doubts about the appropriateness of sanctions and a tough diplomatic and economic rebuff from Russia disappear. crimes in Bucha, Irpen, Yelenovka, Kremenchug, Vinnitsa, Izyum and many other cities? Europe supported Ukraine during the seven months of the war – financially and with weapons, but the Kremlin did not back down, including on the political fronts in the West.
Given the trends, it is expected that European politicians, tainted by close friendship with Putin, get a vote from the voters. Elections in Italy and Salvini's figures will be the first test. The policy of the future new government in Italy will be a new test of unity among the EU states.
