Johnson won the battle, but not the war: what will be the political future British friend of Ukraine/Channel 24 website collage
A few days ago, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson was threatened with resignation. About 40% of his party colleagues expressed no confidence in him. However, a friend of Ukraine escaped an unfortunate political verdict. Now he has immunity for a year, but the question of Johnson's resignation still remains open.
How much credit of confidence will be enough for Johnson, which of the British politicians can replace him if necessary, how is Johnson now with political and public support, and what needs to be done to level the danger of resignation – the Channel 24 website asked experts.
The speakers in this material were: Bohdan Tsyupin – Ukrainian journalist in London. Yaroslav Matiychik is the executive director of the analytical center Group of strategic and security studios. Volodymyr Kurennoy is a People's Deputy of Ukraine of several convocations.
Did Boris Johnson secure himself from resignation?
Yaroslav Matiychik :I think it's safe. In the near future, there will be no political intrigues related to his resignation. Of course, criticism will pour on him further. They will talk about some of his ineffective steps, that he allowed too much and this is contrary to the basic principles of British political culture (meaning the scandal, nicknamed Partygate in Britain – Channel 24). The fact that the British politician decided not to deprive the current head of government of one of the leading roles was played by his pronounced anti-Russian attitude. European partners. Mr. Johnson is not shy about setting the tone for Western politics these days. And, finally, his very shortcomings, although caustic, still do not pull on some particularly serious crime. This is clearly not enough to arrange a “circus” here now, as some English lords put it.
After all, the British are not the type to change horses in midstream, as the saying goes. Too much is at stake. First of all, in everything related to today's British foreign policy.
Yaroslav Matiychik/Photo from archive of the interlocutor
But Bogdan Tsyupin is inclined to think differently.
The expert is sure that the next few months will be decisive for the prime minister. And elections can take place at almost any moment. The latest is 2 years. And here we are not talking about “a horse in the middle” at all.
The approach of the election should, in my opinion, will push the conservatives to make sure that Johnson is really the one they need at this moment. The same historical experience tells me that, if necessary, the replacement of the leader of the party, and hence the prime minister, takes place very quickly. Think of Theresa May or David Cameron.
Therefore, the rule about the horse and the crossing does not fit here at all, Tsyupin opposes Matiychik. Based on what I hear here in Britain in journalistic and analytical circles, referring to historical experience, they tell me that history shows that if there are so many MPs who have the right to raise the issue of confidence in the party leader (more than 50 MPs, submitting signature lists to a special official in the parliamentary faction – channel 24), then, according to the party charter, this is put to a vote.
The fact that so many people have accumulated to put this issue to the vote, and the fact that about 40% of the Conservative Party faction voted no confidence by 148 votes, shows that Mr. Boris Johnson has problems.
On topic – The OP reacted to Johnson's vote of confidence:
I would like to point out that Boris Johnson is a very skilled politician. He showed his ability to get out of very difficult political situations. Of course, various scenarios are possible.
Today, Ukraine is often remembered when talking about Johnson.The Ukrainian direction is one of the loudest in British foreign policy during this period. Some of the successes on this track are to his advantage. However, again, the fate of heads of state is usually decided by internal political issues.
- If we turn to them, we will see that BoJo's predecessor Theresa May also won a similar vote in parliament, but was still forced to resign a few months later.
- The experience of one of the most famous prime ministers, Margaret Thatcher, is also very illustrative in this respect. And she also won an identical vote at one time, but this process itself has already shown that she had problems.
Thus, we see that Johnson has these problems so serious that in the coming months he will have to do everything possible to regain the trust of the deputies.
Boris Johnson became one of allies of Ukraine and visited Kyiv during the war/Photo by the Office of the President
First of all, by convincing them that he will bring them electoral points in the next general election and in general in elections to conservative candidates. For the leader of the party is at the same time its symbol. Therefore, he should be as attractive as possible for the voter, Tsyuping draws a line.
Vladimir Kurennoy also believes that Johnson may still lose his post. Formally, he really received immunity for a year based on the results of a vote of confidence. But this cannot save him if he continues to lose the support of his fellow party members in parliament. And if they also join forces, they will de facto be able to block the work of the cabinet.
After that, the only way out will be Johnson's resignation. It can take place already on its own initiative or after pressure from fellow party members or members of his cabinet. Well, that is, actually, if we compare Johnson's situation with Case May, where there was also a situation where she could not get her Brexit project through the House of Commons.
As a result, as far as I remember, 52 deputies also wrote to the 1922 committee and there was a vote. May got even fewer black balls then than Johnson does today. The latter received 41% of the votes for no confidence, and she – 37%.
After the vote, de facto, the entire opposition to Mei began a fierce struggle against her. All her legislative initiatives, passing through the House of Commons, were blocked by the efforts of the opposition. Which led to, in fact, the paralysis of the work of the government. Several ministers left their posts at the time. Among them was Johnson. And Theresa May was forced to resign.
Therefore, if we compare these cases, then there is only one difference between them. At that time, the issue of Brexit became a stumbling block. All opposition-minded politicians were then united. These were all the so-called Brexiters. The same radical supporters of Britain's exit from the EU.
Vladimir Kurennoy/Photo from interlocutor's archive
Today there are practically no supporters of the European Union in the Conservative Party. Those few of his sympathizers who were there have left the political force as of today.
In the current situation, it comes to the fore that Johnson's opponents do not act as a united front. This saved him and continues to save him. These 148 deputies cannot present any collective claim. Some are dissatisfied with the personnel policy, another group complains that the prime minister pays little attention to economic problems. Does not fulfill its promise to implement tax reform and so on.
As you can see, they have completely different, so to speak, requirements. But there is something that still unites them. The personal rating of BoJo and the party rating of the British Conservatives is falling. All of them are frightened that the party will lose the next parliamentary elections because of this fall in the rating. And as a result, all of Johnson's opponents will lose their constituencies.
Influenced by fear for their own political future, they believe that they should be led by another leader who will ensure a brighter future. Even more, these fears intensified after the May local elections, where the Conservatives, although they avoided failure, lost to Labor and the Liberals several regions that were traditionally theirs.
Answering the question of < strong>how much time Johnson was given in office, Kurennoy argues as follows:
I still hope that he will now work hard with the deputies, that there will be a reshuffle in the composition office. I hope that some opposition deputies will still be given posts. Especially to those groups that are very dissatisfied. And this slightly, so to speak, prolongs the tenure of the incumbent prime minister. This is the first.
Secondly, we do not know what events will take place on the fronts of the Ukrainian-Russian war and in the world as a whole in connection with all these things. If the situation worsens, oddly enough, but in this case Johnson's chances of retaining the premiership increase.
And another factor here is the fact that Boris Johnson is the best British prime minister in terms of Ukrainian interest. If he leaves his position, we will lose valuable time and momentum. While there will be a change of government, while there will be reshuffles, while the newly-minted prime minister will be in the know, a lot of time will pass.
So we're interested in seeing one of our biggest allies continue to do his job. Let him sit out until the next parliamentary elections and, perhaps, try to win them again. And yet, I don't think that we are talking about such a short period (from several weeks to several months, as British media people and experts say – Channel 24). It all depends on the further behavior of the main opposition groups. -bitvu-no-ne-vojnu-kakie-problemy-est-u-druga-ukrainy-i-chto-emu-ugrozhaet-6fb23ca.jpg” alt=”Johnson won the battle, but not the war: what problems does a friend of Ukraine have and what threatens him” />
Experts are sure that threats remain for Johnson/Getty Images
If they really unite and destroy all the bills in the House that will be submitted by the government under the presidency of Johnson, this will automatically cause the resignation of individual ministers who simply will not see their future in this government. The resignations of ministers, as I have already said, will entail the departure of the prime minister.
It is difficult to say yet how much time we have, the expert summed up.
Who can replace Johnson if he leaves office? Shortly before the vote, Liz Truss was mentioned as a potential successor to Johnson. But she took and supported the head of the government in which she now works.
Yaroslav Matiychik: Yes, she behaved quite politically correct. She showed herself to be a true member of the team. At the same time, she previously managed to express her own dissatisfaction with Johnson's unacceptable behavior.
On the other hand, she stressed that let's make sure that the baby is not thrown out with the water. However, it is quite possible that Truss will nominate his own candidacy in the next elections. The powerful support of her fellow party members testifies in her favor. Therefore, she is seen as a worthy replacement for the disheveled and arbitrary Johnson.
They see her, if not a second Thatcher, then exactly the figure who can lead both the party and Britain.
Everything will depend on how events unfold on the battlefields in our country. If everything goes well for Ukraine, this will mean the success of Johnson himself by default. I do not think that after that someone will be able to compete with him, with such, figuratively speaking, “linguistic uncle” (laughs), to compete in the elections.
Bogdan Tsyupin drew attention that, in addition to Truss, Johnson has several other potential rivals.
There is another figure who is less known abroad but well known here. This is Jeremy Gant. He is a former official. In addition to him, the current Secretary of Defense, Ben Wallace, has now been added, who said that he does not exclude the possibility of future participation in the political competition for the position of leader of the conservatives, and therefore the prime minister.
Of the iconic figures, I would also mention Richie Sunak. He is a very interesting politician. He should be followed. And he was very popular recently among the British due to the fact that, being the Minister of Finance (in Britain, the head of the Ministry of Finance is the Chancellor – Channel 24), he introduced a program to support local business. She worked very successfully, saving many jobs and businesses.
However, now due to the economic problems that we will talk about later, Sunak, as the person responsible for taxes, subsidies and so on, has also come under scrutiny. the attention of society. He had certain questions about his wife's status as a taxpayer.
Bogdan Tsyupin/Photo from archive of the interlocutor
He could be a powerful candidate, if public sympathies were on his side. Now he is no longer such a popular favorite as he was until recently, the journalist says. Now name at least 5 people. I think when it comes to elections, there will be even more applicants.
It should be remembered that the political system in the UK is quite specific. It is very dynamic and subject to party rules. For example, the British Conservative Party has its own party rules, while the Labor Party has its own. It's all part of the so-called unwritten constitution of the UK.
But the main feature is that the political process is very fast. While, for example, in the United States, presidential elections are held in a clearly defined period of time. After a certain number of years on a predetermined day of a particular month.
Here the system is much more flexible and faster. While in the United States presidential elections begin almost a year before the date of the election and the election campaign lasts a very long time, the local system is completely different in dynamics. The prime minister is not elected in a general election. This is exactly what you need to remember. The leader of the party that is in power, which has a majority in parliament, automatically receives the right to head the government.
Then he goes to the queen, who gives him the right to form the government. This political mechanism causes heated debate in expert circles.
Among his critics are those who say it limits the parties' political representation in government, against the will of the voters. Here everything is built in such a way that if one party won at least one seat in parliament, its representative, elected in internal party elections, immediately gets the right to be prime minister and form his own cabinet.
Johnson stayed, but for how long: watch the video
Vladimir Kurennoy,, in turn, further details the list of potential successors to Johnson, giving each of them along the way a brief description.
In fact, due to the fact that all these groups of opponents of the incumbent prime minister did not unite in joint opposition to him, they did not elect one or two leaders. We don't have such clear-cut leaders who could replace Johnson.
Indeed, today, almost all leaders with a high trust rating in the party environment, all of them are members of the government. Moreover, a significant part of them expressed support for their top.
But let me remind you that John Major was once a member of the Thatcher Cabinet (he served as Chancellor of the Royal Exchequer – Channel 24), and when voting for confidence/distrust, he also supported the Iron Lady, who was subsequently forced to resign. Although, from a legal point of view, she should not do this.
Major himself then moved to the leader of the party and won. So, if Liz Truss, Ben Wallace or, say, Dominic Raab, if they supported Johnson, this does not mean at all that they will not participate in the struggle for leadership in the party.
I agree that Richie Sunak missed his chance. He has the worst confidence score among party members today. After that scandal of economics, taxation, and even a bit of corruption around his wife in the first place, his chances are slim. anyway, the most popular politician is Ben Wallace. He is the undisputed leader of all polls. If we talk only about popularity, it is the Minister of Defense who can pull the party out of the mud and raise the rating.
However, he is not very influential among, so to speak, the party establishment. This is his main problem. Wallace is an exceptionally folk hero. Liz Truss, who has already been named, is also part of the lead group. It would be a pretty good option. She has influence and experience in party intrigues on her side.
We also include here the previously named Dominic Raab. The latter acts as a kind of “right hand” of Johnson. But he is very strongly reminiscent of Anthony Eden under Churchill. He looks very much like a typical gentleman. It is very boring by itself.
Such is the classic British politician of the past. Not everyone believes that Raab will be able to pull the party.
Still very exotic and much more pro-Ukrainian than Johnson, Jacob Riess Mock. Also a member of the government. I don't even remember what position I have. In my opinion, the Minister of Construction. Although it has nothing to do with construction. Represents the Victorian group as Tori. These are adherents of Victorian rules and traditions and so on.
By the way, it would be a very good option for us. True, his amazing exoticism will prevent him from realizing his political ambitions. I would call it “greetings from the century before last”.
There is also Michael Golf. Mark Spencer, acting as the “party whip” for the Conservatives. Oh, and there's one more. Johnson's former rival, the worst candidate, in my opinion. So semi-pro-European and very similar in style and manner to European politicians Jeremy Hunt.
Today, he is very actively “wetting” the incumbent prime minister and is trying to unite the disparate opposition into one whole. And the last very interesting figure. The person who first wrote a letter of no confidence to Boris. The very first thing. This is the head of the defense committee from the House of Commons. A certain Tobias Ellwood.
Ellwood is Johnson's biggest opponent. So to speak, personal. And you know, I'll tell you what his position is on the war between Ukraine and Russia. He advocates the introduction of British troops into our territory. In addition, he is an apologist for a closed sky over our country.
In his opinion, NATO must intervene militarily to stop Russian aggression. However, it is considered too radical. This perception significantly reduces his chances of premiership. Still, I think he will run.
How is Johnson's public support?
Yaroslav Matiychik:British society is very sensitive to the behavior of politicians in the public arena. Perhaps people will never forgive him for the party scandal. Such behavior in Britain is called “arrogant”, that is, dismissive.
But he will still be able to fully atone for his guilt before parliamentarians and society. The first step towards this was already taken by him, when the mistakes made were recognized, Matiychik emphasizes.
Bogdan Tsyupin looks at the situation a little differently.
During one of the ceremonies on the occasion of the seventieth anniversary of Queen Elizabeth on the throne, the prime minister was loudly booed when he stepped onto the platform for a speech. This indicates that the level of support is critically low.
An alternative to the EU? Zelensky told whether there were proposals from Britain:
Vladimir Kurennoy expressed partial agreement with the remark of the previous speaker. He added the following:
To date, approximately 20 – 25% is Johnson's personal support. And the Conservative Party's rating is 30%. Everything revolves around these numbers. The story mentioned above actually happened. But everything was a little different there. The events took place during the national service in one of the cathedrals. It was attended by members of the royal family. Indeed, when Johnson arrived at the venue, many people shouted “Phoo!” to him. This fukan was accompanied by a whistle.
It was not the disgraced party that played the leading role in the deterioration of relations. It can only be called a reason. The real reason for all this is the economic situation in the country. De facto now we can observe the stagnation of the British economy. Growth is only on paper. And even then at the level of 0.6 – 0.8%. This is very little for a country like Great Britain.
People there are used to the fact that from year to year the standard of living improves. But this year everything has changed. This is the main factor that determines such ratings.
It must also be frankly said that Johnson is very similar to Churchill in all respects. Including the fact that he really does not like to deal with the economy. He deals with it last and deals with the economic bloc, gritting his teeth. His favorite questions are the constant political struggle, the rebuff of Russia, and so on. He is a warrior and by no means an accountant.
What recipe would you give Johnson to save the day?
Bogdan Tsyupin: I am not a politician to give professional advice. I can only speak from a consumer point of view. First of all, he should pay attention to the issues of domestic policy. Take care of taxes, regulate the prices of fuel and products. I see how the British feel very unsatisfactory because of high consumer prices and expensive fuel,
Vladimir Kurennoy: I see two areas here that need to be given special attention. The first is to submit super-important economic bills to parliament as soon as possible. Just what he promised to do before. We must finally move from promises to actions here and now.
Second, this is an even more decisive position towards Russia. I am convinced that a victory over Moscow can save Johnson from defeat and, as a result, resignation.
Any significant victory over the Kremlin will be perceived first of all as a victory in the name of Johnson. This is how it will be seen in the international arena, understanding at the same time that this is a victory won by Ukraine. Somewhere like this I see the salvation of “Private Johnson”.
