Italian experts predicted a new pandemic in 2080
In the next 60 years, a new pandemic may begin in the world, comparable in scale to COVID-19, warned scientists from the University of Padua in Italy. In the course of the study, they studied the spread of diseases around the world over the past four centuries, according to the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
It turned out that extreme pandemics are not as rare as was commonly believed. Over time, the likelihood of their occurrence increases. Scientists predict the next outbreak may occur in 2080.
The authors used new statistical methods to measure the magnitude and frequency of disease outbreaks. Their analysis covered plague, smallpox, cholera, typhoid, and a variety of influenza viruses. The results showed that there is a certain pattern in the occurrence of new outbreaks.
Thus, the risk of a recurrence of a pandemic like the Spanish flu (1918-1929) ranged from 0.3% to 1.9% per year. According to these numbers, it is statistically likely that a pandemic of this extreme magnitude will occur within the next 400 years.
The team also found that the risk of intense outbreaks – that is, outbreaks on a scale similar to COVID-19 or the Spanish flu – is growing rapidly. In the next few decades, it will triple. Scientists have not been able to establish the exact reasons for the growth – it is likely that the trend is associated with an increase in population and more frequent contacts with wildlife.
Scientists have calculated that a pandemic of the same magnitude as COVID-19 is likely to occur within 59 years. In addition, in the next 12 thousand years, a pandemic may arise that can completely destroy humanity.
Scientists have previously calculated the “hot spots” of future pandemics. Most of them are located in Asia.
