ISW predicts an increase in losses among the occupiers: is Russia capable of compensating for them?

ISW explained why Russia's Losses in the war may increase/Shutterstock and Getty Images, collage 24 Channel

Analysts commented on the increase in the pace of assault operations by Russia . They explained what consequences this could lead to for the aggressor country.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has prepared a new report on the Russian-Ukrainian war. It was published on Saturday, April 6.

What analysts say

ISW said Russia has recently increased the pace of its offensive operations in Ukraine. According to analysts, this will likely lead to increased losses of manpower and equipment among the occupiers. However, the Institute for the Study of War believes that the Ministry of Defense of the aggressor country is capable of compensating for the loss of personnel and materiel.

Analysts recalled several mechanized assaults at approximately the platoon, company and battalion levels that the invaders carried out near Chasovoy Yar, near the village of Terny, which is located west of Kremennaya, and near the settlements of Berdichev, Semenovka and Tonenkoe, which is west of the temporarily captured Avdeevka . They drew attention to the fact that the previous model of infantry attacks by the occupiers did not provide for such a widespread use of armored vehicles, since Russia suffered heavy losses in manpower.

Therefore, ISW assumes that Moscow could make good use of its ongoing covert mobilization efforts. In this way, Russia could compensate for the loss of personnel. Analysts say the new trend toward increased use of vehicles during tactical assaults suggests that the occupiers may not be as concerned about the loss of manpower and materiel as they once were.

< p>Analysts believe that in the short term Moscow will not carry out unpopular mobilization or economic measures. The Kremlin may take such steps if losses in manpower and equipment increase significantly and exceed the level that the current covert mobilization in Russia and its current defense production capabilities can currently cope with.

The report notes that Russian commanders are confident in their ability to compensate for attack losses and are preparing for a possible offensive in the summer of 2024. This is evidenced by the recent increase in the number of assaults in the eastern part of Ukraine by the occupiers.

Other ISW statements

• Recently, the Institute for the Study of War commented on the “pops” at Russian airfields. The report points to Ukraine's ability to attack multiple air bases in a single series of strikes, representing a “noticeable shift in capabilities.”
• ISW recently suggested that Vladimir Putin was training the Russian population to a protracted war against Ukraine. Analysts explained the main signs of this.