ISW analyzed Putin's new threats about nuclear weapons

ISW analyzed Putin's new threats about nuclear weapons Diana Kwasniewska

What they say at ISW about statements Putin/Collage 24 Channel (Photo by Getty Images)

Vladimir Putin again threatened with nuclear weapons. Analysts say that there is a direct threat of the use of nuclear weapons if the West allows Ukraine to decisively defeat Russia.

Analysts at the American Institute for the Study of War argue that It is very unlikely that such statements by the Russian dictator will lead to actual nuclear escalation.

What analysts say about Putin's statements

During a visit to Vietnam at a press conference on June 20, Vladimir Putin said that he was allegedly considering the possibility of making changes to his nuclear doctrine.

According to the dictator, this is in response to discussions in the West to “lower the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons and develop less powerful weapons.”

Analysts explain that this statement was likely a partial response to the NATO Secretary General. After all, on June 17, Jens Stoltenberg said that members of the Alliance are discussing strengthening nuclear readiness in the face of increasing threats from Russia and China. Although the NATO Secretary General did not talk about “lowering the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons.”

Putin probably referred to the possibility of lowering the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons to signal that he reserves the right to use nuclear weapons if his forces are decisively defeated on the front line to deter Ukraine's allies from achieving the overall strategic goal of decisively defeating Russia's invasion of Ukraine, experts say.< /p>

The Russian dictator's nuclear threat, they say, is part of the Kremlin's nuclear blackmail campaign, which is aimed at dissuading Ukraine's allies from resolutely committing to overcoming Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine.

The American Institute for the Study of War concluded that it is very unlikely that the blackmail campaign will lead to actual nuclear escalation.

ISW added that Russia’s strategic defeat in Ukraine does not threaten Russia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, but may threaten the stability of the Putin regime. It also concluded that:

• the threat of nuclear escalation will continue to remain a major asset to Russia's ability to manipulate the perceptions of foreign decision makers;
• Russia will not be able to defeat Ukraine or the West. Therefore, the Kremlin will most likely lose – if the West mobilizes its resources to resist the occupiers.

By the way, Vladimir Putin said that they are thinking about possible changes in its nuclear doctrine. Putin said the reason was supposedly “lowering the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons.”