ISW analyzed how ATACMS missiles will help weaken the Russians

How ATACMS missiles will weaken the Russians in the war/Getty Images

The arrival of a large number of ATACMS missiles will help Ukraine worsen the logistics of the Russian occupiers. Long-range weapons also threaten Russian airfields deep in the rear.

ISW analysts believe the months of delay could have given Russia time to reduce the potential operational impact on Ukraine. Although the day before, on April 24, the United States confirmed that it secretly transferred ATACMS to Kyiv secretly transferred ATACMS to Kyiv in March 2024.

How ATACMS could weaken the Russians

Analysts recalled that Ukraine first attacked with ATACMS missiles in October 2023. Then the Ukrainian Armed Forces attacked Russian airfields in occupied Berdyansk and Lugansk, but our military did not yet have enough weapons to intercept Russian aircraft on a large scale.

Cluster munition-armed versions of ATACMS missiles allow Ukrainian forces to carry out more effective attacks on airfields and destroy more Russian aircraft and other assets than individual missile strikes on individual aircraft, ISW now says.

They explain that such attacks could force Russia to move its planes further from the front line. This is much more important for Russian helicopters than for most Russian fixed-wing aircraft, which have a much longer range.

Analysts at the US Institute for the Study of War wrote that:

• Russian troops effectively used helicopters when repelling Ukrainian mechanized attacks during the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Zaporozhye region in the summer of 2023;
• since then, the occupiers have deployed far fewer helicopters to support ongoing offensive operations in eastern Ukraine;
• Russian forces are now actively using aircraft to launch glide bomb attacks throughout front lines. Therefore, the withdrawal of these aircraft to airfields located further from the front will likely have a negligible effect on the speed of strikes.

The arrival of long-range ATACMS missiles could also pose a significant threat to Russian ammunition depots in rear areas and could force the Russian command to choose between strengthening existing depots and further dispersing depots throughout the occupied territory of Ukraine, analysts are convinced.

They added that strikes by the Ukrainian Armed Forces against Russian logistics bases or aircraft in the rear would likely be operationally significant only if Ukrainian forces successfully coordinate them with ground operations to exploit the deterioration of Russian capabilities resulting from the strikes.