The Ukrainian army switches to active defense — One possible reason is that Russia may be preparing a new major offensive in the summer of 2024. The Financial Times wrote about this, noting that the Russian Federation’s goal will be the complete seizure of four regions — Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporozhye.
However, it remains a big question whether the Russian Federation will be able to achieve its planned goals, political analyst and writer Oleg Ponomar said in an exclusive interview with Fakti ICTV.
The Russian offensive is happening right now
The expert noted that the Russian offensive is continuing right now, so there is no need to wait until the summer. According to him, the Russian army has no successes or achievements after several months of fighting at the front.
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— Firstly, Russia's offensive is happening right now, meaning it doesn't have to wait until the summer. And it started a few months ago, but no progress or goals have been achieved at all. Apart from the capture of Marinka, which the Russians razed to the ground, they have no achievements. This offensive continues, but the media does not write about it.
For example, when the Ukrainian offensive began in the summer, which for a number of reasons did not achieve its goals, all Western, Ukrainian and Russian media wrote: the Ukrainian counter-offensive failed, it was not successful, and so on. And then in September — In October, Ukraine changed tactics, switched to active defense, and the Russian offensive began. As I said, none of my goals were achieved, — he emphasized.
Is it possible to radically change the situation
Oleg Ponomar noted that now neither Ukraine nor Russia can radically change the situation at the front due to a lack of capabilities and resources. The analyst does not believe that the Russian Federation will be able to capture any major Ukrainian city.
— And now the situation at the front is such that neither one nor the other side has the capabilities or resources to change the situation very radically. I don't believe that the Russians can capture any big city, or capture all these four regions. I don't believe it.
That is, the background may change, but it is more or less stable, because, as I said, the forces are more or less equal, and the resources are more or less clear, — said the expert.
How will US assistance affect the counter-offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces
According to Oleg Ponomar, US assistance to Ukraine will definitely last throughout this year. He is convinced that US President Joe Biden will find any possible way to ensure support for Ukraine.
— As for US assistance, and whether it will affect the hypothetical big offensive, it will not affect it at all. US assistance will still be provided in one way or another, to one degree or another. The United States will never give up the fact that Ukraine is an ally and Russia’s victory is unacceptable, at least while Biden is in the White House. Trump — that's another story. But as long as Biden is in the White House, Ukraine will always have a reliable ally in the United States.
No matter how things are decided in Congress with this bill on Ukraine and the border — it will not fundamentally affect America's attitude toward its alliance obligations. Biden will find some other ways, schemes or opportunities, but there will be help all this year. And then everything will depend on who wins the presidential election in November, — says Oleg Ponomar.
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