The war in Ukraine has become a serious test for Old Europe/Getty Images
The fate of Ukraine is decided on the fronts. Moreover, not so much in the Donbass, where the rashists are on the move, still taking advantage of the advantage in firepower and regardless of the losses, but in the Kherson region, where the Armed Forces of Ukraine are conducting tactical counter-offensive operations.
Ukrainian realities
Why the Kherson direction is so important. Because when we cut off the supply lines of the rashists from the Crimea, their Southern group will not immediately, but inevitably fall short.
And the Kremlin will immediately have nothing to bargain with in peace negotiations.
But internal battles – only one of the important sectors of this war.
Energy Front
But the fate of the world in the configuration we understand is decided not in battles, but in outwardly calm, unhurried negotiations on the oil and gas market.
The main participants in the process are the United States and Saudi Arabia, plus the OPEC countries as a whole.
< p>The fact is that Europe, especially old Europe — France, Italy, Germany, Spain — are ready to sympathize with Ukraine.
But they are much less ready to help it in specific terms.
Do you know what they say to children in German lessons? No need to be afraid, the war is 500 kilometers away…
What Old Europe thinks
This old Europe is ready to make any deal with the Kremlin Fuhrer, if only the war remains 500 kilometers away from them (the fact that a rocket travels such a distance in 15 minutes does not yet occur to Europeans).
Moreover, old Europe is not particularly ready to sacrifice its comfort for the sake of a serious rebuff to the aggressor.
If closer to winter energy prices remain speculatively high, then in old Europe we can expect not only political rhetoric, but also street speeches demanding peace immediately and at any cost. That is, at the expense of Ukraine. And top politicians will listen to such demands.
So the success of the multifaceted US negotiations on cooling the energy market, lowering prices, increasing production and supplies to Europe, first of all, depends on whether the old Europe will remain on side of her own invented democratic principles (read – together with Ukraine) or she will repeat exactly the suicidal maneuver before the Second World War.
