Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has begun grooming his successors in the event of his death. They will almost certainly be as ideological as he is.
This is the opinion of analysts from the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Khamenei has chosen his successors
Thus, Iranian sources told the New York Times that Ali Khamenei has moved to a secure bunker, stopped digital communication and now communicates with top commanders only through a trusted aide.
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Khamenei is known to have named three senior clerics as candidates to replace him in the event of his death. Ali Khamenei has also named replacements for top military commanders. He has also ordered senior officials to work from bunkers and avoid using mobile phones.
This is the first time that Khamenei has chosen potential successors himself outside the formal Assembly of Experts process.
ISW analysts believe that Iran's supreme leader took this step because he believes he could be killed. After all, Israel, and in particular Defense Minister Israel Katz, have openly threatened Khamenei.
However, on June 15, Reuters reported, citing American sources, that US President Donald Trump had vetoed the Israeli plan to kill Khamenei. On June 17, Trump said the US knew exactly where the Supreme Leader was hiding, but would not sideline him, at least for now.
Ideological successors
According to ISW analysts, the three possible candidates to replace Khamenei would be as ideological as he is. In November 2024, Khamenei met with members of the Assembly of Experts and stressed that Iran’s next supreme leader should “embody the revolution” and introduce Islam into Iranian society. However, Khamenei did not name his successor at the time.
Assembly of Experts member Abdolhasan Mahdavi confirmed that back then, in November 2024, the Assembly confidentially identified three candidates and their priorities.
The Assembly of Experts is an 88-member elected clerical body. Its primary purpose is to appoint, supervise, and dismiss the Supreme Leader. In practice, however, the Assembly of Experts has never challenged the position and generally has a limited role in Iran’s day-to-day politics.
The current assembly was elected in March 2024 and will serve until 2032.
Who are the potential successors of Ali Khamenei?
According to ISW, Mojtaba Khamenei, Khamenei's son, is not among the candidates for succession. Former Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, who was discussed as a candidate, died in a helicopter crash in May 2024.
