The involvement of 300 to 800 thousand volunteers can ensure the introduction of a partial military service system.
This is evidenced by the results of a comprehensive study of the mobilization potential of Ukraine and the reform of the mobilization system in Ukraine, presented by the research and analytical group InfoLight.UA together with experts from the Ukrainian Security Club at the Interfax-Ukraine press center on Thursday, January 6.
— Our study shows that 34.2% of Ukrainians are ready to voluntarily mobilize when a partial military service model is introduced. Of these, 7.8% of respondents noted that they would definitely mobilize, and 26.4% responded that they mobilized faster, – informed the founder of Active Group Andrey Eremenko.
Partial military service in Ukraine
The concept of partial military service is that servicemen spend 25-30% of their time in the Defense Forces and the rest in civilian life. Thus, two to three months of service will be replaced by 6 months of civilian life. This will help maintain the economic activity of citizens and ensure regular rotation of troops.
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— There is a negative feedback between the complexity of military service and mobilization — the more difficult the service, the more difficult it is to find people willing to voluntarily mobilize. With the existing approach of forced mobilization, it is impossible to break this negative feedback, – explained Ph.D in applied mathematics, the author of the mathematical model of the reform Alexander Ivanov.
He noted that the model shows that under the current system, the optimal strategy for citizens is to evade service. The proposed changes provide for conditions under which voluntary mobilization will be beneficial for both parties.
– We are seeing a collapse of public administration in this area. At the same time, the proposed reform can not only solve the problem of staffing the army, but also reduce social tension, the expert said.
The study surveyed 1,200 respondents through the SunFlower Sociology online panel, conducted in-depth interviews with 100 conscripts, mathematical modeling based on game theory, and analyzed international experience.
– It is important to understand that these are not just statistics. In-depth interviews show that people are ready to defend the country, but they need clear rules of the game and the opportunity to combine service with civilian life. Partial military service can become the social contract that is so lacking now, – says Yuriy Goncharenko.
According to experts, the implementation of the reform will ensure regular rotation of troops, maintain the economic activity of the mobilized, reduce social tension and create a reliable reserve for the country's defense.
It is noted that in order to transfer the majority of defense forces to partial mobilization, it will be possible to attract about 3 million citizens.
— This is an ambitious task, but it responds to the challenge from Russia regarding readiness for a long war and will most likely exclude new attacks on Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire, — he added.
It is proposed to start the implementation of the reform with a pilot project in 1-2 brigades to practice mechanisms and improve processes. This is especially relevant in the context of the current collapse of public administration in the field of mobilization and the threatening chaotization of processes.
Reference. The InfoLight.UA research and analytical group was created in May 2022 as a volunteer initiative. Since October of the same year, it has received institutional support from the Hanns Seidel Foundation in Ukraine. The group cooperates with the Security and Defense Forces of Ukraine and has several insignia. The work uses the most modern tools and techniques, including artificial intelligence to track malicious narratives. Since November 2024, the team's experts have been members of the Ukrainian Security Club. The presented study was conducted with its organizational support.
