The head of the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin, is trying to use the “Belarusian card” in the war against Ukraine. At the same time, the situation in this direction is quite predictable for Kyiv.
Moscow wants to seize the military initiative and achieve two key goals in the “Belarusian direction” . Channel 24 was told by political scientist Nikolai Davydyuk.
Putin's plans
According to him, Putin will try to take advantage of the precarious position of Belarus and will want to “push through” the country's participation in the war against Ukraine, but so far he does not have “super opportunities to do it very quickly.”
“They are waiting for the swamps froze over so that tanks could pass through. Our Armed Forces are ready for this. So many “surprises” are waiting for them that they will burn like New Year's lights. If the Russians go in Belarusian uniform, and this is Putin's idea, or even if the Belarusians go, they will be just “fried potato pancakes,” the political scientist is convinced.
In his opinion, the situation in the “Belarusian direction” is “predicted”.
We also understand two of their goals: Kyiv and the Rovno NPP – this is exactly what they care about very much. Putin wants to repeat the capture of Energodar – we understand this, we read it, we are prepared, – Davidyuk pointed out.
How Russia hopes to use Belarus: watch the video
The subjectivity of Belarus
The expert noted that the self-named President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko is currently completely controlled by the Kremlin.
I think Lukashenko is a “button”, but not Putin's. Lukashenka ran for half the war and tried to sell himself to the Europeans – no one wanted to guarantee him that he would remain in power and no one guaranteed his money. He went to the Chinese, and Putin is a “button” for the Chinese, so Lukashenka is more profitable to “sell” for the strongest . the reviewer explained.
He is convinced that Lukashenka is afraid to be left alone without Putin, because “falls” after him.
“He believes in it, all his grimace shows it. But he does not want to sit in the same dock with him or be killed in his office, so he is trying in every possible way to “recoup” and “get away”. , and we will definitely not forgive this – neither the Russians nor the Belarusians, “added Davidyuk.
In his opinion, Belarus is trying to maintain its subjectivity, but it will continue to be “hostage” of Moscow and will serve as a springboard for Russia.
“Belarusians do not want anything. But the fact that Russians can be dressed in Belarusian uniforms – I admit and they will use the country as a springboard. < strong>Lukashenko will try to become a hybrid shadow partner for Putin .The Kremlin understands that no one wants to fit into this adventure now and everyone will be forcibly involved in this,” the expert added.
What can Ukraine expect
The observer assured that today the threat for the northern regions of Ukraine from the territory of Belarus is still relevant.
It is too early for Kyiv to relax, as well as in the North of Ukraine . In fact, the front can also change. Having torn down the Crimean bridge, they will also not be able to provide supplies of lubricants, weapons, equipment and ammunition. It is clear that 200-300 thousand people will be gathered in Russia and they will try to “enter” from the North. Plus, this is also an attempt to deconcentrate us and break our forces. – noted the political scientist.
According to him, since July, the Russians have not made “not a single cunning step”, so there is no need to expect any non-standard solutions yet.
“Putin scares with nuclear weapons – then retreats, announced mobilization – as a result, semi-mobilization, intimidates to seize million-plus cities – retreats in the Kharkiv region, then ours break the Crimean bridge, etc., “the expert emphasized.
In his opinion, military initiative< /strong> is on the side of Ukraine today.
“I don't see the Russian military initiative now – they are trying to intercept it. Playing the Belarusian front is an attempt to create a military initiative, to force us to catch up with them. The Armed Forces of Ukraine have trained so much over these six months that Putin will “stop them “near Rostov,” Davydyuk concluded.
Belarusian threat to Ukraine: what is known
- Belarus extended the restriction imposed on February 24 for civil aviation and drone flights in the south of the country until January 1 2023. This means that at least until the end of the year, the threat of strikes against Ukraine from that territory will remain.
- In addition, information appeared that Russia could transfer 20 Iranian kamikaze drones to the Luninets Belarusian airfield, therefore the enemy will probably be able to attack the northern, western and central regions of Ukraine with “shaheeds”.
- According to the GUR, Russia is trying to drag Belarus into an open war with Ukraine. Putin is trying his best to persuade Lukashenka to dare this decision.
