The monthly conscription into the ranks of the Russian Armed Forces is likely equal to or lower than the amount needed to replace Russia's monthly losses in a full-scale war against Ukraine.
This is stated in the report Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Russian conscription fails to compensate for losses at the front
According to ISW, Russian officials continue to justify the Kremlin's decision not to carry out a forced conscription into the reserves, despite indications that the Russian military is struggling to recruit enough new personnel to replace significant losses.
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The chairman of the Russian State Duma Defense Committee Andrei Kartapolov said on February 4 that Russia does not need to carry out another partial forced conscription into the reserves, since Russia now supposedly “has an advantage on the battlefield”.
State Duma Defense Committee member Viktor Sobolev added that 740,000 people have signed contracts for military service in the Russian army — likely since the start of a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
According to him, mobilization will only make the situation worse, as it will lead to sending people to the front who have no prior military experience or special skills.
First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee Andrei Krasov also stated that mobilization is not needed, since Russian military commissariats are allegedly successfully recruiting new personnel.
ISW analysts suggest that such statements by Russian deputies are likely aimed at calming the fears of the Russian public regarding partial forced conscription into the reserves.
However, ISW experts note that the Russian military may have difficulty recruiting a sufficient number of new military personnel.
— In late 2024 and January 2025, ISW received reports that the monthly conscription into the Russian army was likely equal to or below the number needed to replace Russia'smonthly losses to each other, — ISW reports.
ISW analysts also note that individual regions of the Russian Federation are not fulfilling their monthly conscription quotas, since citizens are less willing to go to war as volunteers.
On February 3, the Russian Defense Ministry proposed a draft amendment that would reclassify certain illnesses, diseases, and disorders for conscripts and those who sign a contract for military service.
In particular, the Russian Defense Ministry proposed reclassifying syphilis, hypertension, atrophic disorders of the central nervous system, skin diseases, schizophrenia, psychotic disorders, affective disorders, and other health problems as milder illnesses that do not disqualify one from military service. service.
