Western allies of Ukraine have dramatically changed their position on heavy weapons for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Such a change in mood indicates both the overcoming of the psychological barrier in the West, and the fears of Ukraine's allies that the war could drag on for many years, which will only play into the hands of Russia with its huge human resource.
Vladimir Putin is also preparing for a protracted war to try to literally sit out Western leaders in the anti-Russian coalition and negotiate a “truce” with their successors. The implementation of these plans of the Kremlin should be hindered by the unity of the Western Alliance around Ukraine, because before that the West managed to overcome many contradictions that the Russian dictator staked on. Channel 24traditionally collected the most important things from the pages of Western media that write about Ukraine.
How can the West stay strong for the sake of supporting Ukraine?
An article with this title appeared in The Washington Post. Recently, Ukraine received a green light to supply Western-style tanks to challenge Russian forces at the front and finally drive the occupiers out of their land.
The central figure in the tank disputes was German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who, despite opposition in his own party and contrary to the opinion of many Germans, decided to join other NATO allies and the so-called “tank coalition”. Scholz's decision, which he approved under obvious pressure from the Alliance allies, was reasonable, courageous, and once again confirmed that the West would not allow a Russian victory andprotect the main commandment of the international order: the inadmissibility of aggressive wars.
The task of the Western Alliance now is to maintain extreme solidarity in the confrontation with Moscow, despite all the risks of an escalation of the war, contradictions between the governments of Eastern and Western Europe and internal opposition in some NATO member countries. So far, this has been successful, and today Russia is a pariah country.
Pay attention!At the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, whose 57 member states make it the largest regional security structure in the world, Russian representatives often use official forums to spread pro-Kremlin propaganda. However, they are usually met with stony silence even by representatives of the former Soviet republics from Central Asia. Only the Russian puppet Belarus is inclined to express its agreement with all theses voiced by the Kremlin. Despite obstacles from Russia, including blocking the approval of the OSCE's annual budget, the organization found workarounds to continue its mission, including exposing Russian war crimes in Ukraine. Western diplomats say thatRussia would most likely be expelled from the OSCE if there was a special mechanism for this, but there is no such mechanism yet.
Broad international support for Ukraine, together with tough sanctions against Russia, will significantly improve Ukraine's negotiating positions when the war reaches its end. This is why Western solidarity is so critical.
Unity around support for Ukraine can prove to Vladimir Putin that his desire to achieve his imperial dream is doomed to failure. However, it would be a mistake to take today's unity for granted and ignore, at first glance, small cracks in relations between Ukraine's allied countries.
Powerful solidarity with Ukraine is largely caused by popular indignation, a criminal war and the horrifying atrocities of the occupiers on earth.
- At the same time, thiswinter in Europe seemed extremely warm and mild, completely canceling all fears about the depletion of natural gas for heating.
- It is also important that European countries get rid of dependence on Russian oil and gas in a short time , which is also a tough strategic blow that Putin certainly didn't expect.
An interesting fact was also that the pro-Russian politicians in Europe failed miserably in the internal political struggle. For example, the same French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen (an old supporter of Vladimir Putin) was forced to destroy more than a million campaign brochures, where she was depicted with the Kremlin dictator. However, it did not help her. Anti-Ukrainian rhetoric did not find a response in French society, and Le Pen lost the election.
Italian Prime Minister Georgia Maloney has completely reconsidered her attitude towards Russia and is now one of the biggest supporters of Ukraine in Europe. After all, all the anti-Ukraine populism of some European politicians has not gained popularity, despite certain economic problems and the rapid inflation in the EU, which they often tend to associate with the war.
Georgia Maloney and Marine Le Pen/photo Alessandro Serrano/AGF/Sipa
At the same time, the dispute over the supply of German tanks is a warning sign of other tensions that could cast doubt on the unity of the alliance as the war gradually drags on.
- Russian systematic missile attacks on critical infrastructure of Ukraine increase Western spending on supporting Ukrainian electricity, heating and water supply systems.
- Ukraine also needs more equipment and munitions while NATO is just beginning to shift its production to wartime levels. Russia is doing the same, here and there, with great zeal, as Putin considers this war to be existentially important to Russia and his own political survival. but maintaining this unity will require skillful leadership.
Interestingly, there will be trials on both sides of the Atlantic. US President Joe Biden will have to continue to impressively prove his continued commitment to overcome Russian aggression. The Washington Post believes that it should also send signals to the global South where popular thought can be mobilized against a conflict that is very much like an “imperial war against a former colony”.
In Washington, throughout the war, problems arose, first with an open letter from a number of Democrats to the US President, where they asked to push Ukraine into negotiations with Russia, and subsequently withdrew their appeal. The current Speaker of the House of Representatives from the Republican Party also stated that Ukraine would not receive an endless stream of money, but then changed the interpretation of his statement, noting the accountability of all assistance that our state receives.
In Europe, leaders will have to cope with differences of opinion, because the Germans and the French have more peaceful views on events and have repeatedly pointed out the need for negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow. Poland and the Baltic states, which suffered from the Soviet occupation, have a more aggressive approach and intentions precisely to defeat Russia. Both camps should remember that Ukraine is not a foreign nation. This is part of Europe, and Ukrainians sacrifice and die defending Europe.
Arguments that dictator Putin's aggression cannot be rewarded with any territorial compromises are received positively in European society. The leaders of Europe and the US government must bring this war to a victorious end, because Ukraine became a victim of aggression only because it wanted nothing more than to be a completely Western state, freely speak, think, vote and choose the alliances it sees fit.
Western allies are concerned about the prolongation of the war
A number of Western allies of Ukraine are concerned that the war may drag on, the newspaper writes The Wall Street Journal. Behind the decision to drastically increase military aid to Ukraine lies concern in some Western capitals that time may be on Russia's side. This indicates that The window of opportunity for Ukraine is not endless, and our state needs a large number of weapons and equipment in order to soon strengthen its positions at the front and continue the counteroffensive.
As President Putin's original war plan failed, Western governments at the time hoped that the longer the fighting continued, the more likely Ukraine would win. Western officials have said that if Europe and Washington keep their courage and unite after a hard winter, Russia's economic problems and military setbacks, exacerbated by sanctions, could force Moscow to seek a way out of the conflict or even come to peace.
Nowthe mood in the West has partially changed, they fear that the Kremlin, ready to throw thousands of people to the front, can outmaneuver the West in any prolonged war of attrition. Therefore, it is better to give Ukraine better weapons that would help change the dynamics of the war and overcome Russia. The Kremlin has already suffered heavy losses among its best military and equipment, and there is also evidence that long-range missiles in Russia are gradually running out. Destroyed Russian artillery in the field of Kharkiv region/Evgeny Maloletka/AP
Some of the West's toughest sanctions, such as the oil embargo and price cuts on Russian crude oil exports, are also only now coming into effect. The Russian economy is forecast to suffer a significant downturn this year, and its development potential is likely to remain much smaller in subsequent years.
However, no sanctions did not in any way affect Russia's ability to fight and did not entail sufficient economic pressure on the Kremlin, which has learned how to successfully suppress any public discontent by force.
Russia continues to attract new people to its army through mobilization and is preparing a new powerful offensive in the coming months. The mobilized have already allowed Russia to put powerful pressure on the Ukrainian forces, especially in the Bakhmut area.
In recent days, changes in Western thinking about the need to speed up supplies to Ukraine have been publicly manifested in the decisions of the US, UK and Germany. They agreed to send Western-designed main battle tanks to Ukraine. Together with other armored vehicles and air defense systems, these weapons are designed to help Ukraine not only repel any Russian offensive, but also provide the means for a further counter-offensive into Russian-occupied territory.
The position of British officials was the most clear. They publicly argued that the threat from Russia could increase over time, and also that there was an urgent need to supply Ukraine with equipment that could help the Ukrainian Armed Forces move forward.
So far, public support in the United States and Europe remains at a fairly high level, but Putin hopes that if the war continues for years, and if governments change in many countries, including the United States, this trend will also decline.
The upheaval in thinking about the need to speed up the supply of heavy weapons and large-caliber weapons to Ukraine took place quite abruptly. A few months ago, when Ukraine launched a successful counteroffensive and recaptured the lion's share of its territory, there was confidence among Western officials that Ukraine would have what it needed to make further progress and repel the Russian advance. Even at the time, some governments urged Western allies to step up support for Ukraine to prevent the conflict from dragging on for years.
However, some Western allies remain cautious about accelerating Western support. Even when German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced that his country would send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, he pointed to the biggest concern among Kyiv's allies over more advanced supplies.
We must always make it very clear that we will do everything necessary and possible to support Ukraine, but at the same time prevent the escalation to war between Russia and NATO,” he stressed. Olaf Scholz.
There is also some controversy in the West as to whether the accelerated arms and equipment transfers that advocates of military support are formulating can even bring about a faster end to the conflict. Although the Ukrainian army has far exceeded expectations in terms of how quickly it can learn to operate and integrate sophisticated Western military equipment, there is no certainty that Ukraine will again be able to launch such successful offensive operations as it achieved last fall.
At the same time, it is not certain that Vladimir Putin himself will ever consider ending the war without the complete subjugation of Ukraine. The West still has only a tactical idea of the end of the war, which is based on the achievement of specific military goals by Ukraine. Ukraine's allies lack a common strategic vision of how the war should end and what supplies can positively influence this process.
Putin is preparing a new offensive and expects a long war
Russia is preparing a powerful new offensive against Ukraine in order to regain the initiative in hostilities, writes Bloomberg. Almost a year after the invasion, which was supposed to last several weeks, Putin is preparing a new offensive, in parallel preparing his country for conflict with the United States and allies. Putin expects the war to last for years.
The Kremlin is keen to show the world that its forces are capable of resuming the initiative on the battlefield after months of losses and numerous losses. Thus, Russia wants to put pressure on Ukraine and its allies in order to persuade the Ukrainian authorities to negotiate so that our state agrees to a certain truce that would secure part of the occupied territories for Russia.
At the same time, Vladimir Putin cannot ignore the weakness of his own military forces, which have faced colossal losses and have been forced to withdraw from a large part of the occupied territories. The constant setbacks have made many officials in the Kremlin more realistic about their immediate goals, recognizing that even holding the current front line would already be a real achievement for them.
However, Putin himself is still convinced that Russia's large forces and readiness to ignore losses will allow him to win, despite all the setbacks. And the resumption of the Russian offensive may begin as early as February-March. There is talk both in Ukraine and among allies about the approach of a new Russian offensive, and it is speculated that it could begin before Kyiv receives the recently promised shipments of US and European battle tanks.
Putin's determination also comes as Ukraine prepares its own counter-offensive to increase pressure on the Russian military and force them to leave even more territories. The Russian dictator is confident that he has no choice but to win the war, and a new mobilization will begin this spring as the Russian economy and society become more subservient to the needs of the war.
What Putin is preparing the Russians for/photo of the Kremlin
At the same timeUS and European intelligence agencies doubt whether Russia has the resources for a major new offensive, even after mobilizing 300,000 additional troops last fall. Meanwhile, Ukraine's allies are stepping up arms shipments, preparing for the first time to supply armored vehicles and main battle tanks that could help Ukrainian forces break through Russian defense lines.
However, heavy Russian attacks in cities such as Bakhmut, which has limited strategic value, have depleted Ukrainian forces, diverted troops and undermined Ukraine's ability to conduct offensive operations elsewhere. This is said by some officials in the United States, according to the publication. After lightning attacks by Ukrainian forces in the summer and fall that pierced Russian defensive lines, Moscow has since stepped up defenses, using trenches, tank traps and mines to slow down any potential Ukrainian advance.
In the long term, Putin approved plans to increase the size of the armed forces by almost 50% over the next few years, deploying new forces near Finland, which is in the process of joining NATO, as well as in the occupied regions of Ukraine. Russian schools and universities are re-establishing military training courses, which were last widely held during the Soviet era, as preparations for war permeate Russian society.
At the same time, some elements of realism have infiltrated even the tightly controlled Russian media. The catastrophic failures of the Russian armed forces are increasingly being discussed in prime time on federal channels. There is more and more talk about the need to moderate the Ukrainian offensive and frustrate Western efforts to support our country.
However, Russian troops have not shown the ability to win since the first weeks of the invasion, and in the past six months they have captured only one small city, while suffering huge losses. Ukrainian troops, on the contrary, constantly surprised allies and observers with their success in resisting the invaders.
Some Russian insiders acknowledge that Putin's confidence in his military's ability to triumph – even at the cost of massive casualties and destruction – reflects a misunderstanding of the West's commitment to stop its aggression. The United States and its allies have steadily increased arms transfers in categories once considered off-limits.
However, US and European military officials fear that the conflict could soon escalate into a World War I-style artillery battle with mostly stagnant front lines, a scenario that could benefit Russia with its large population and military industry.
Russia has also tried to win over non-Western fans in a diplomatic direction by urging third countries to negotiate a ceasefire. However, even those close to the Kremlin admit that these efforts are now hopeless, given Ukraine's demand for the withdrawal of Russian troops from all occupied territories as a precondition for any peace agreement.The Kremlin is trying with all its might to fix its territorial “achievements” and only for this is looking for a truce. Thus, Russia will have time to rearm and select the military for new aggression, leaving behind a large piece of Ukrainian territory. This is understood both in Ukraine and in the West.
There is a growing fear among Ukraine's allies that the conflict will continue for years, as the head of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Mark Milley, says. He notes that this year it may be very difficult to push back Russian troops from all over Ukraine, and that this war, like any other, will end at the negotiating table.
In a protracted war, the probable defeat of President Joe Biden on 2024 US presidential election. Biden is currently effectively leading a coalition to support Ukraine, and his possible defeat could bring more flexibility to Washington's position on Ukraine.
