The general escalation of the military-political situation around Russia's war against Ukraine intensified significantly after the Kremlin leader Putin announced the annexation of the temporarily occupied territories. In parallel with this, another mustachioed character became more active, who really does not want to join the war, but has nowhere to go.
Talk about possible attempts by Lukashenka to send his army to the slaughter for the sake of a crazy idea to save his bunker colleague Putin has been going on since February 24, 2022. However, Lukashenka is confidently maneuvering between the drops, avoiding the direct entry of Belarus into the war against Ukraine. How much longer the self-proclaimed president will be able to sit on the splits, probably no one will be able to predict.
On the one hand, preparations for the opening of a second front against Kyiv near our borders have been going on for 8 months, and someday it should reach logical conclusion. On the other hand, after the start of the offensive, Lukashenka will have less time to pack up and flee to Rostov than Yanukovych. Because it will hurt.
Recall that recently the dictator Lukashenko recognized the participation of Belarus in a full-scale waragainst Ukraine. However, as the self-proclaimed one says, his country, on the contrary, “is a positive hero in this story, because it accepts wounded Russian soldiers for treatment and gives shelter to Ukrainian refugees.” And not a word about the missiles and drones that every day Russian soldiers launch from the territory of his country into Ukrainian cities and kill civilians.
Operation – Escalation
Of course, neither Alexander Lukashenko nor the Belarusians will ever be able to wash themselves off from turning their own country into a training ground for Russians, from launching missiles and Iranian drones. And if the representatives of Tikhanovskaya's team and ordinary accomplices of Russia's war crimes were not offended, the only representatives of Minsk with whom the world would communicate would be the fighters of the Chase and Kastus Kalinouski regiments.
Now they are the ones who are able to do at least something real for the liberation of their state. Do not shame yourself with stories that Belarusian partisans saved Kyiv, and do not try to impose your friendship on the Ukrainian authorities, thinking that “Putin could become a hero of Belarus.”
What is known about the regiments named after Kastus Kalinouski and “Pursuit”?
The Kastus Kalinovsky Regiment is a Belarusian regiment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, formed in March 2022 as a battalion to defend Ukraine. The regiment was formed from members of the tactical group “Belarus”, members of the “White Legion” and “Young Front”, as well as other Belarusians who were not previously part of these formations. The regiment is named after Kastus Kalinovsky, one of the leaders of the January uprising of Belarusians, Poles, Lithuanians and Ukrainians against the Russian Empire in 1863. Dictator Lukashenko called the fighters “crazy citizens”. The Chase unit is a military structure formed from volunteers from Belarus who participated in the war in Donbas against Russian aggression. The detachment did not fight as a single combat unit – its fighters fought in small groups as part of different Ukrainian units.
However, despite the clear awareness of the inevitable punishment for what he did, Lukashenka does not want to get into the Polesye swamps up to his ears, his life did not prepare him for this. However, there is a significant difference between planting oppositionists and beating IT people and trying to attack one of the strongest armies in Europe.
Nevertheless, the very fact that the Russians are trying to attack Kyiv in columns many kilometers long demonstrates that Moscow assesses the situation completely inadequately. And it is impossible to say 100% that the General Staff of Belarus looks at the maps somehow realistically. So it is impossible to say with confidence that Lukashenka will definitely not move his army to the Kiev region, Zhytomyr region or to the West of Ukraine. This probability will remain either until the last day of Russia's war against Ukraine, or until a direct order is given to conscripts in wet pants to sit down on tanks and move towards very angry Troshnikov, National Guardsmen and even more ferocious paratroopers. And, I must say, they have already been waiting. And although they hope that no one will attack, they are fully prepared for the denouement of this sad story.
Pay attention! British intelligence officers are inclined to believe that a new invasion of Ukraine from the territory of Belarus is unlikely.The intelligence report mentions that Belarus and Russia are carrying out a joint formation of a group of troops. At the same time, Lukashenka's statements may be an attempt to demonstrate Russian-Belarusian unity, as well as to force Ukraine to divert more forces to the defense of the northern borders.
In addition, one should take into account the fact that since February 24, solely to delay all processes, Alexander Lukashenko has been imitating violent activity. Either it checks the combat readiness of the troops, then it strengthens the protection of the borders. And he constantly contradicts himself. Like, Ukraine will never be attacked. Then he is going to take some preventive actions, or even sees attempts by Poland and Lithuania to attack Russia and wants to cover the back of terrorist troops.
Therefore, covert mobilization into the army, the deployment of groupings common with the Russians can be a common political escalation, which fully fits into the general situation. Moreover, it is not profitable for the Russians to use the enslaved people in the offensive either. Since now the invaders feel incredibly safe at all Belarusian military facilities near the borders with Ukraine, otherwise this situation will change radically. At the same time, the horde is not about logic.
Can Belarusians gnaw Ukrainian land?
If we try to analyze at least a little the consequences of the opening of a second front by Belarus, then there are several factors.
- Firstly, without full-scale mobilization< /strong> underlings of the self-proclaimed president will not be able to raise a large army.
- Secondly, all troops must be equipped and trained.
- And even after that, Lukashenka will not have to hope for victory, because it will be very difficult for the dictator to collect more than 20-30 BTGs. Note that, for example, the Russians took only Severodonetsk with this number of groups for a month and a half.
On the other hand, it is quite logical to use Russians as an offensive fist and strengthen them with Belarusians. This greatly enhances the chances of the Russian and Belarusian dictators for at least some military achievements on the new front. However, the formation of such an army cannot remain unnoticed by Ukraine, and preparations for meeting the enemies are already taking a very long time and do not stop even for a minute. A repetition of the situation when the invaders in a few hours and unexpectedly for the authorities cover 70 kilometers from the border is not yet possible.
It should be understood that one way or another, hostilities in the West or in the North cannot be fleeting, and even if the Russians are already experiencing shell hunger, it will be much more difficult for the Belarusians. Of course, after each major exercise, the Russian army left its vassals, equipment and ammunition at the training grounds, but in the case of active battles, the daily expenses of the BC are measured in thousands. And this is a rather significant argument, to which we should add the facts of the export of shells and equipment from Belarus to Russia. It is not known to what extent Putin exposed the army of his inseparable friend, but for several months, at the request of the Hitler of the present, logisticians drove entire echelons. =”How can everything end for Lukashenko”>How can everything end for Lukashenko
We should also not forget about the risks that Alexander Lukashenko will face if at least one Belarusian military man crosses the border. Of course, we are not talking about serious and merciless riots among the people, although they can happen. Much more damaging for Lukashenka is the fact that missiles will immediately be able to fly to all airfields, refineries and other facilities. There is no doubt that Belarus, together with Russia, will be on the same sanctions list< /strong> of the EU and the US and will become isolated from the entire civilized world. In particular, the European Union recently agreed on new sanctions against Russia and Belarus in a matter of minutes. In addition, after the defeat of the invader troops, hostilities can continue on the territory of Belarus. It is likely that the guys from the regiments named after Kastus Kalinouski and “Pahonia” do not mind if the mustachioed one really tried something like that. After all, then they will get an indescribable chance to de-occupy their country. In turn, the Armed Forces of Ukraine called on the Belarusians not to join Russia's war against our country. The Armed Forces of Ukraine appealed to the Belarusian people with a request not to carry out the criminal orders that the self-proclaimed President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko is preparing to give. Ukraine is not going to attack Belarus, despite the statements of Lukashenko, who speaks of an alleged threat from Ukraine. At the same time, our soldiers warned that in the event of aggression from Belarus, Ukraine would respond with all harshness, as it “responds to all invaders.” The Armed Forces of Ukraine warn that they will respond with the entire military arsenal and will strikes on military targets in Belarus. So, from a rational point of view, it is much more profitable for Lukashenko to simply stand by and not provoke. Allow the Russians to shell Ukraine from their territory, allow numerous DRGs to enter our lands, but not fully join the conflict that cannot be won. Moreover, neither Russian nor Belarusian troops will be able to seize territories or interrupt the supply lines of Western aid. Unless – to wipe out border villages from the face of the earth with crushing fire from all guns. However, the answer to this will be asymmetrical.
