The Armed Forces of Ukraine destroy several hundred invaders every day. However, this does not force ordinary Russians to protest. Only a military defeat of the invaders is capable of launching internal changes in Russia.
Russian opposition politician Dmitry Gudkov told Channel 24 about this. According to him, now in Russia there is a banal dictatorship and any losses among the invaders do not entail a public outcry.
He recalled the situation with Russia's first war in Chechnya. Then there were many independent media in the country, and by that time the governor of the Nizhny Novgorod region, Boris Nemtsov, had collected a million signatures to end the war. There were some elements of democracy in Russia that worked.
Now 100-200 or 400 have died. Irrelevant. It is not discussed in the context in which it should be. Because there is no independent media. Governors, deputies are silent or say what is allowed. Even the most terrible losses cannot sufficiently change the situation,” Gudkov noted.
The military defeat of Russia will launch all the necessary processes
According to Gudkov, it is after the Armed Forces of Ukraine liberate all the occupied territories that a split in the Russian elites may occur. This will create the preconditions for political changes within the country.
So far, the local elites are afraid to oppose at least something to Vladimir Putin. This can result in imprisonment or death for them. However, in the event of a military defeat, many Russians will understand that “the tsar is no longer the same.”
This will affect Putin's ratings. And it can be a disaster for him.
As soon as this sacredness falls, the ratings will fly down. When there is less support from below, it will be easier for the elites to remove Putin from power. It is not necessary that the consequences will be just that. But without a military defeat and a split in the elites, there will be no changes inside Russia. Gudkov noted.
Russia may start a new wave of mobilization: what is known
- Recently, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny said that Russia is preparing 200,000 soldiers for a new offensive.
- Also, the head of Ukrainian intelligence, Kirill Budanov, said that a new wave of mobilization will begin in Russia in early January. It in one form or another can begin as early as January 5th.
- Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov also stressed that in early January, the Russian authorities plan to close the borders for men. They can declare martial law and start a new wave of mobilization.
