I looked here at some numbers of coverage and reactions in the Russian information field to the appeal of the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Oleksiy Reznikov to Russian military servicemen. Here's what you get.
How many Russians watched Reznikov's appeal
The coverage is already in the millions. The two most charged groups – Russian liberals and active “Rosnazis” – are tightly embraced and are waiting to see if the warning will come true or not. And here is a moment.
If the Russian authorities, according to the plan, close the border (the end of this week – the beginning of next week) and launch a new wave of mobilization in a couple of weeks, then a situation will arise that the “Russian Nazis” directly write about. They say: “Why should we listen to a ridiculous man in green clothes, by the name of Shoigu, if the main news is not from him, but he lies through the word?”
The Kremlin has hopelessness with mobilization
If the Russian authorities try to save the remnants of face to their military superiors and postpone the implementation of the plan – they need to be postponed for at least 3-4 weeks – then they will fail in terms of time. They will have to solve the planned tasks with less forces and means. And that means more losses for them and less for us. They are more likely to fail.
The incident in Makiivka will also push for a postponement. For launching a new wave of mobilization against the background of information about the transformation of a horde of “mobiks” into minced meat due to the stupidity of the command – well, that's it. There will be unplanned costs. Especially in big cities, where information about Makiivka will spread. It was by chance that Reznikov turned to the inhabitants of these cities. Well, or not by accident.
The occupiers can take revenge on the Ukrainians for the ruined plans
The Kremlin's reflex reaction to the current situation in the information field will be the continuation of intensive shelling of our cities. At any cost. “Mopeds” will arrive in dozens every night until a new batch runs out. There will be missiles.
The Kremlin needs to show the Russian population at least some semblance of dynamics and to fill the airwaves during the holidays. There is simply nothing else.
So in the next 10 days, you should be especially careful, but remember that these hysterical shelling with close to zero efficiency technically cannot last long. The more mediocre Russians burn Iranian drones, the sadder they will be at the front.
