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How long will the power be turned off in Ukraine: power industry forecasts

by alex

The war waged by Russia against Ukraine has caused terrible destruction to the energy infrastructure. Power plants, substations, power lines — all this became a target for enemy shelling. In this difficult situation, it is Ukrainian energy workers who show incredible resilience and heroism.

Every day, risking their lives, they go to power lines under fire to restore power supply. With their hands damaged transformers are repaired, new lines are installed, destroyed substations are restored.

Why they turn off the lights in Ukraine

As temperatures drop, electricity consumption in Ukraine is growing, which further aggravates the shortage situation.

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The main reason for blackouts is electricity shortages. Due to the destruction of energy infrastructure due to Russian shelling, Ukraine has lost a significant portion of its electricity production capacity. This has led to a deficit that cannot be covered by domestic resources alone.

During peak hours the deficit is covered by commercial imports and emergency assistance from the power systems of Poland, Romania and Slovakia.

How long will the power be turned off in Ukraine

On May 17, no consumer outages are planned during the day until evening peak load hours. But from 19:00 throughout Ukraine, stabilization shutdown schedules for household and industrial consumers are possible.

According to Yuri Boyko — Advisor to the Prime Minister of Ukraine (Shmygal), member of the supervisory board of NEC Ukrenergo, the likelihood of power outages will persist until the end of the summer, and possibly until the fall. But the situation depends on many factors: intensity of shelling, weather conditions, level of consumption.

— I will not reveal a secret if I say that in these conditions we will have to live, according to my estimates, until August. In August-September I expect a slight improvement due to various factors — starting from the active phase of repair of nuclear generation facilities, the sun will still remain and there will be a large amount of this generation in the system, — emphasized by the expert.

What is the situation in the power system on May 17

Ukraine's energy system is on high alert for emergencies, so it is difficult to say how long the power will be turned off. Thanks to the measures taken, large-scale rolling blackouts are avoided, but the likelihood of local power supply restrictions remains.

In the event of a significant deterioration in the situation in the power system, emergency outages are possible that do not fall within the schedules.

How often can emergency shutdowns be used:

  • if necessary, because emergency shutdowns — this is an extreme measure, which is resorted to only in case of a critical shortage of electricity;
  • depending on the situation. Emergency shutdowns have been used infrequently in recent days, but this likelihood increases as the grid situation deteriorates.

The expert notes that it is worth saving, and is confident that Ukraine will be able to get through the autumn-winter period.

— I think that with the help of our power engineers, who work very well, we will be able to resolve this issue not only in the summer, but also in the winter, and we will get through the autumn-winter period. We will be able to maintain the integrity of the energy system, — noted by Yuri Boyko.

Where the lights will be turned off most often

According to Ukrenergo, the time of power outages depends on consumption. As of May 17, 2024, the most difficult power supply situation is observed:

  • in the Kharkov region, where, due to significant damage to the energy infrastructure as a result of shelling, emergency power outages are often used.
  • The energy system of the Odessa region is also in a difficult state due to damage to infrastructure facilities. Both hourly and emergency shutdowns are possible.
  • there is a shortage of electricity in the Dnepropetrovsk region, so hourly outage schedules are possible.
  • the situation in the capital and the region also remains difficult. Both hourly and emergency shutdowns are possible.

Follow updated information on the websites and social networks of local regional power companies. Find out the hourly outage schedule in your area in advance. Prepare for possible outages: charge your phones, buy flashlights and candles.

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