US Vice President Kamala Harris has taken the lead on Election Day in the 2024 US presidential election, beating her Republican opponent Donald Trump.
This is according to a modeling of the election outcome conducted by the Economist magazine.
US Election 2024: Who is in the lead, Trump or Harris
As the publication notes, Harris's chances of winning have increased from 50 to 56%.
Now watching
— With very little time left before the end of the election, our model reacts sharply to the latest data, — the magazine writes.
It is noted that the AtlasIntel portal published 13 polls with better indicators for Harris compared to the norm favorable to Trump, and in these studies the Democratic candidate, that is, Harris, is in the lead.
On average, the magazine points out, Harris leads in new polls in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. At the same time, a poll conducted by Dartmouth College faculty and students also gave her a noticeable advantage of 28 percentage points in New Hampshire.
US presidential elections: which states are worth watching
As the Economist notes, in most states one of the parties has a comfortable advantage, making them uncompetitive.
However, seven states (93 electoral votes) will become decisive:
- Michigan,
- Wisconsin,
- Pennsylvania,
- Nevada,
- Georgia,
- North Carolina
- and Arizona.
In 2016, Trump led in all of them except Nevada; in 2020, Biden won every state except North Carolina.
2024 US election: which states will be decisive
As The Economist notes, key states are not equally important, since some are larger, and some are more inclined to favor one candidate or the other.
However, there are also those that are similar to each other: for example, if one of the candidates wins in Michigan, he will most likely be ahead in Wisconsin as well.
Will a party like the president's get into Congress?
As the magazine notes, the US presidency — this is an important prize, but the new president's job will be much easier if the same party controls the US Congress.
They will be able to pass laws and appoint judges more easily, and avoid hostile investigations.
According to the magazine's conclusion, if Trump wins the election, the probability of an entirely Republican Congress is 31%.
At the same time, if Harris wins, the probability of complete dominance in both parties by Democrats is 22%.
