Harris and Trump Ratings: Political Scientist Explains Why They Shouldn't Be Considered

Harris and Trump ratings: a political scientist explained why they should not be taken into account Petro Sineokiy

Recently, the media have published many ratings on the US elections. It is better not to pay attention to these polls at all now.

Political scientist Oleg Saakyan told Channel 24 about this, noting that there was already information that Kamala Harris was allegedly overtaking Donald Trump. There was also data that Trump was ahead of her by 1-2%. So far, this data does not make any sense.

There are still a few months left until the elections, so everything can change. But the main thing is that these ratings do not answer the question of who has a better chance of winning. The key thing in the US is not general sympathy, but the situation in the states that have not yet decided who they will vote for.

In the US elections, it is important which of the parties will ensure a higher turnout. After all, there are not so many of those who migrate with their vote between the two parties.

If your supporters reached the ballot box and cast their ballots, then you will win the electors. And then, based on the results of the electoral vote, you can win the election. Otherwise, the situation will be Clinton – Trump. She won the total number of voters, but lost the electors. That's why she lost the election, Sahakyan explained.

What to expect from Harris and Trump

As Saakyan noted, Harris is now the same “dark horse” as Trump. It is not yet known what to expect from her. This may be the “heredity” of the Democrats' less decisive, slow, but consistent policy a la “do not escalate”.

Despite this, Harris will need to differentiate herself from Biden. And she can do this on the issue of the war in Ukraine. Biden is a representative of the post-war generation, which still remembers the fears of a possible nuclear war, the confrontation with the USSR and the work to prevent a major war.

Harris is from another generation that can raise the stakes and oppose the current Putin generation, where there are also no longer those who remember the war. It is worth remembering that she is a former prosecutor who clearly knows what an “aggressor – victim” is.

However, Harris's actions will be determined by the electoral situation and party influences. It is important how independent she will be in forming her own policy. And whether she will be ready to reboot the Democratic Party itself. If not, then this will continue to be slow, hesitant support for Ukraine without significant breakthroughs. Her name can be put in the line “Obama, Biden …”

With Trump, we have a 50/50 situation. There may be pressure on Ukraine, a reduction in aid and attempts to negotiate with Putin around simple solutions. Or, on the contrary, opening warehouses for Ukraine and providing what Biden would never dare to do. The key open secret of Trump's team on the Russian-Ukrainian war is that their plan does not exist. It will only be compiled, – noted Saakyan.