Today, November 8, 2023, the European Commission provided recommendations to the European Council to begin negotiations on Ukraine’s membership in the European Union after the implementation of all necessary reforms by official Kyiv.
At the same time, both Poland and Hungary are putting forward their own conditions on Ukraine’s path to accession negotiations with the European Union. For example, Poland emphasizes the need to resolve the issue of exhumation of the victims of the Volyn tragedy, while Hungary considers it necessary to ensure the conditions of national minorities, in particular, ethnic Hungarians who are citizens of Ukraine in the west of the Ukrainian state.
About whether Ukraine will be able to begin accession negotiations with the EU, whether the decision of the leaders of the EU member states will prevent this, and what this conclusion generally means for Ukrainian European integration – ICTV Facts tried to figure it out together with experts.
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What does the European Commission’s assessment mean for Ukraine?
According to political scientist Oleg Sahakyan , for Ukraine the preliminary assessment of the European Commission is a “remarkable result,” especially in the military and political conditions in which Ukraine finds itself.
– This assessment (of the European Commission – Ed .), if we speak detachedly and unemotionally, then it exceeds a number of expectations. In this regard, the European Commission recommends starting a further European integration movement, which is a political green light from the European bureaucracy , from Brussels. This is very good. This means that the political decision on Ukraine’s admission to the EU has already been made at the bureaucratic level. Now the question is up to the member countries,” he says.
According to him, now political negotiations with EU member states, such as Hungary or Poland, deserve more attention.
In turn, Deputy Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Igor Zhovkva, speaking on the national telethon, called the document of the European Commission “very objective, positive and balanced.”
— Indeed, the European Commission noted two main things. Firstly, the EC recommended in this report that the European Council begin negotiations on membership with Ukraine. This is the first very positive point where we can put an end to it. The second important thing is that Ukraine’s progress was assessed in all seven recommendations that the EC provided to us in June, when we received candidate status. There is tangible progress in all seven recommendations. Some of them have been completed completely,” he explained.
President Vladimir Zelensky also positively assessed the decision on the part of the European Commission and wrote that “today the history of Ukraine and all of Europe has taken the right step.”
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“Despite all the difficulties, we are moving forward and already in December we expect a political decision from the European Council,” Zelensky said.
What are the political issues with EU member states?
The next step should be approval by the leaders of the EU member states to begin negotiations. The next meeting of the European Council, which envisages a meeting of all presidents and prime ministers of EU member states, will take place in December under the chairmanship of the President of the European Council, Charles Michel.
According to Sahakyan, after the start of negotiations on Ukraine’s accession to the European Union, it will take at least 7 years for Ukraine to become a full member of the European Union, therefore the principled positions of individual EU member countries can be intensified both now, before the start of accession negotiations, and later, during the negotiation process itself.
– Now all the key demands (to Ukraine – Ed .) will be reduced to political ones, which will be heard from individual member countries of the EU. Both now and in the future, when the question of voting on Ukraine’s direct membership in the EU arises, then 100% demands will still appear. It could be like Hungary, with political educational requirements for national minorities, it could be Poland with its policy of national memory. This could be Romania with issues, for example, of the Romanian-speaking minority… Other countries may also appear that are not expected for us now,” explains the expert.
The political scientist points out that on the way to Ukraine’s membership in the European Union, entire coalitions may appear, such as agricultural coalitions, which will set demands because they will see Ukrainian farmers as competitors.
“They can demand compensatory mechanisms for themselves so as not to put pressure on their governments, which will have a desire to support Ukraine,” the expert explains.
Igor Zhovkva, in turn, notes that there is still an overwhelming majority of EU member countries that support Ukraine on its way to the European Union.
According to Zhovkva, much depends on the Verkhovna Rada and the legislative framework, which will move towards satisfying the issue of the same national minorities.
Negotiations on Ukraine's accession to the EU already in March 2024?
In order for negotiations on Ukraine’s accession to the European Union to begin in March 2024, official Kyiv needs to continue reforming those sectors that the European Commission pointed out in its preliminary assessment. We are talking, first of all, about judicial reform, the anti-corruption industry, as well as issues of protecting national minorities and the fight against oligarchs.
Igor Zhovkva points out that each EU member country that joined the bloc through negotiations followed its own unique path to the EU.
— At the beginning of 2024, begin that irreversible process. Namely, to begin accession negotiations. It's very real. We see the time frames that the EC sets. Again, we will try to do this even faster,” he explains.
The process of accession negotiations itself will involve several stages, which are the same for all candidate countries. The first of them is an intergovernmental conference at which Ukraine and the European Commission will have a negotiating framework, which will be the actual beginning of the opening of negotiations.
— And then, based on the fact that the EU accession agreement covers 35 chapters, then 35 chapters cover all sectors of the economy – agriculture, finance, IT, finance and the like. Negotiation chapters will begin to open, which can open several at the same time. Accordingly, there will be a joint delegation with the chief negotiator from Ukraine… Now there is no point in speculating on when the negotiations will end or how long these negotiations will take,” he explains.
A similar opinion is shared by political scientist Oleg Sahakyan, who is confident that Ukraine is quite capable of fulfilling its obligations within the specified time frame and starting negotiations as early as March 2024.
